Leeds vs Man City Picks and Predictions: Haaland Delivers for City

The Premier League has returned from the World Cup break, and Manchester City will look to keep within reach of league-leaders Arsenal when the Citizens travel to Leeds on Wednesday. 

Leeds are just a few points clear of the relegation zone. With such a tight race at the bottom, goal differential could be imperative. With numerous starters unlikely to be available, they will want to ensure they don’t get routed.

Meanwhile, City are looking to reverse their fortunes from before the break and pick up a vital three points, with a tight match schedule upcoming and some big matches on the horizon.

But as heavy favorites, where is the value in this match? We help you find it in our Leeds vs. Manchester City picks and predictions for December 28. 

Leeds vs Man City best odds

Leeds vs Man City picks and predictions

Manchester City, for all their talent and scoring prowess, are in an unfamiliar spot right now. After their shock 2-1 defeat to Brentford heading into the World Cup break, the Citizens now sit eight points adrift of Arsenal in the race for the Premier League title.

The Gunners are a real threat to City’s hopes of repeating as champions, as evidenced by the league leaders running out 3-1 winners over West Ham on Boxing Day. Manchester City knows if they want to win a fifth Premier League crown in six years, they simply can't afford to drop any more points to lower sides.

Perhaps if this match had taken place before the break — or even a few weeks from now — there would be more concern about Leeds pulling off another upset. However, the northeastern side is bereft of key players heading into their confrontation on Wednesday.

Striker Patrick Bamford, winger Luis Sinisterra, and midfielder Stuart Dallas are all likely to be unavailable. Making matters worse, the heart of their engine room will be absent as World Cup standout Tyler Adams is suspended.

Combine those ingredients, and you have a recipe for what should be a romp by the visitors. The betting markets reflect this, with City heavily favored. In addition, the public is heavy on player prop markets as well, with Erling Haaland being the focus of numerous parlays and prop plays.

The striker is on a record-setting run of form so far this season. In City’s 3-2 Carabao Cup victory last week over Liverpool, Haaland showed the World Cup break brought no rust into his game. He scored the opening goal just 10 minutes into proceedings, marking the seventh time in his 17 starts in all competitions that his name has been the first on the scoresheet. Now he goes up against a Leeds United side that has allowed 17 goals in their last eight matches and are missing key players.

For that reason, I love placing an insurebet on him to do so yet again versus Leeds. For those unfamiliar, an "insurebet first goalscorer play" means that if the player you bet on doesn’t score first — but later finds the back of the net — your wager is returned to you as an insured play.

Given that Haaland has failed to score just four times in 18 appearances, this is a terrific value when you consider it’s still at plus odds. Avoid the heavily juiced plays around this match, and bank on the big Norwegian to open the scoring as the focal point of City’s attack. 

My best bet: Erling Haaland insurebet first goalscorer (+105 at FanDuel)

Leeds vs Man City side analysis

As we already discussed, City are overwhelming favorites in this tilt. In addition to the players listed earlier, Leeds could potentially be without more than 10 first-team players. However, manager Jesse Marsch believes many of them will be available, albeit possibly off the bench only.

Leeds have won just five of their 17 matches at home in 2022, and if they have any hope of winning this match, they will need forward Rodrigo and starting keeper Illan Meslier to be available. They’re also going to need to fix a leaky defense that has not kept a clean sheet in their last 11 matches.

As for City, this could be a walk in the park where they name their own score, but the Brentford result showed they can’t take anything for granted. They will be without the services of central defender Ruben Dias, while forward Julain Alvarez is still away from the team after winning the World Cup with Argentina.

These two teams hadn’t met in nearly 20 years prior to last season, but City won 4-0 at Leeds back in April on their way to the title. That followed a 7-0 victory at home in December.

There’s little to indicate that we won’t see a similar blowout-type result in this match, but there’s no value to be had in the moneyline. Turn your focus toward the spreads and Asian handicaps if you’re wanting a piece of the result.

Leeds vs Man City Over/Under analysis

The two teams combined for 11 goals in their two meetings last season. I say “combined,” but it was really all City, as Leeds were overwhelmed in those matchups. Their defense has been overwhelmed often when their side hasn’t been at full strength, and that's a big reason why the total in this match is up to 3.5 from the typical number of 2.5.

In Leeds’ last four matches in the Premier League, at least three goals have been scored, with five or more finding the back of the net in three of those games. A total of 14 goals were scored in their last two before the World Cup, and nine of their last 14 in league play have seen at least three goals.

For all of City’s firepower, they’ve not displayed a ton of it away from home this season. Just three of their six away matches have seen them score multiple goals in league play, including a 1-0 defeat at Liverpool. Only two of those away tilts have seen three or more goals scored as well. So while City should roll them, it’s not guaranteed that they will do so.

Personally, I will be staying away from the total before the match kicks off, but there could be some solid value in the live markets. I am particularly hoping to get some live first half Over action if Leeds can keep City from scoring in the first 10-15 minutes.

Leeds vs Man City game info

Leeds vs Man City key injuries

Leeds: Patrick Bamford F (Out), Tyler Adams M (Out), Stuart Dallas M (Out), Illan Meslier GK (Questionable), Rodrigo F (Questionable), Liam Cooper D (Questionable). 
Man City: Ruben Dias D (Out), Julian Alvarez F (Out), Kalvin Phillips M (Doubtful).

Leeds vs Man City recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Leeds	W-W-L-W-W
Man City	W-L-L-L-L

Leeds vs Man City weather

Conditions will be a bit dodgy in this one, with rain expected throughout the day. Wind gusts could get as high as 32 miles per hour as well.

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