Last week’s Champions League Round of 16 first legs threw up plenty of surprises — and plenty of emphatic margins of victories, too.
None of the EPL’s six highly-regarded representatives won their matches (0-2-4), while five of the eight fixtures were decided by a margin of three of more goals.
Will any of the teams that suffered heavy defeats overcome the odds to stage an unexpected comeback? My UEFA Champions League best bets cannot rule it out.
Here are my free betting picks for the Tuesday and Wednesday action.
UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for Round of 16 — Leg 2
Chelsea vs PSG
PSG Over 1.5 goals (+105 at Sports Interaction)
PSG head into the second leg with a commanding 5-2 lead from the first leg played in Paris last week. It means Luis Enrique’s visitors are in the driving seat in the tie.
Chelsea will have to take risks at they look to reduce the three-goal deficit. This means PSG should get plenty of scoring opportunities on the break. Their Ballon d’Or holder centre-forward Ousmane Dembele, plus wingers Bradley Barcola and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, all looked sharp in front of goal last week.
- Date: Tuesday, March 17
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
Manchester City -1.5 (+120 at Sports Interaction)
Manchester City are a better side than they looked in losing 3-0 at Real Madrid last week. While they have much to do, Pep Guardiola’s hosts are not out of this yet, and should cause Real plenty of problems.
It is debatable whether the 4.50 on City qualifying for the quarterfinals is good value. At home, however, with the potential to dominate the match from the start, the Premier League champions are more than capable of winning by a couple of goals on the night.
- Date: Tuesday, March 17
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Barcelona vs Newcastle United
Barcelona Over 2.5 goals (+130 at Sports Interaction)
Barcelona needed an injury-time Lamine Yamal penalty to secure a 1-1 first-leg draw at St James’ Park last weekend. But Hansi Flick’s players ought to be a lot more dangerous in Catalonia.
Barcelona have scored three or more goals in all nine of their home games (all competitions) in 2026. The same also occurred in two of their four home games during the Champions League group phase (they beat Copenhagen 4-1, and Olimpiacos 6-1).
With their formidable attacking trio of Yamal, Raphinha, and Robert Lewandowski set to start, a Barca firing on all cylinders ought to score three or more goals.
- Date: Wednesday, March 18
- Time: 1:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid
Tottenham Over 4.5 shots on target (+110 at Sports Interaction)
Under-pressure Tottenham interim manager Igor Tudor earned some respite when his team snatched a 1-1 draw at Liverpool at the weekend. That gives the hosts something to build on against Atletico Madrid this week.
The North Londoners trail 5-2 from the first leg last week. Their chances of causing an almighty upset by knocking out in-form Atleti look minimal. But a game, gutsy Spurs showing is likely.
Rather than backing Tottenham to win, or even score, support them to pepper their opponents’ goal with shots.
- Date: Wednesday, March 18
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Liverpool vs Galatasaray
Under 3.5 (-115 at Sports Interaction)
Liverpool’s chronic attacking problems were evident when they lost the first leg 1-0 in Istanbul last week. Liverpool may yet win and go through, but Under 3.5 goals is the smartest selection on the match.
Five of Liverpool’s nine Champions League games have had three or fewer goals this season. The same is true of 22 of their 30 Premier League games, and 12 of their 15 Premier League home games.
Seven of Galatasaray’s nine Champions League games this season have also had three or fewer goals, including both of their previous meetings against Liverpool.
- Date: Wednesday, March 18
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Champions League player prop quick hits for Round of 16 — Leg 2
Chelsea vs PSG
Joao Pedro (Chelsea) & Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG) 1+ shots each (-120 at Sports Interaction)
Chelsea center-forward Joao Pedro should get into strong scoring positions against a PSG center-back partnership of Marquinhos and Willian Pacho that looks less solid than last season.
PSG's Georgia international winger Kvaratskhelia came off the bench to score twice in the first leg last week. Expect him to start, and be just as dangerous this week.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
Erling Haaland (Man City) to score and have 2+ shots on target (-110 at Sports Interaction)
It is rare for Erling Haaland to struggle in consecutive matches. After failing to deliver in last week’s first leg, the Norway international striker should do much better this time.
He scored and managed three shots on target in City’s 2-1 win (away) vs. Real Madrid in December. A similarly effective performance would be no surprise.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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