There’s a big Champions League clash between FC Porto and Arsenal on Wednesday, February 21st.
Porto face a tough task against a brilliant Arsenal team, and the Champions League odds position them as significant underdogs.
Will Arsenal continue their fine form, or will their trip to Portugal turn into a nightmare? Don’t miss our Champions League picks and predictions for Porto vs. Arsenal to find out.
FC Porto vs Arsenal best odds
FC Porto vs Arsenal picks and predictions
Arsenal cruised to the knockout stages of the Champions League in Group B, winning by four points, and scoring 16 goals in just six games. Porto finished second in Group H but considering they only missed out on the top spot to Barcelona because of their head-to-head record, they probably consider themselves very unlucky to be meeting Arsenal here instead of an easier matchup.
Both teams come into this on the back of very different domestic form. Porto are fresh off a win this past weekend but before that, they had one loss and one draw in their previous two games. They’re in third and off the pace in Liga Portugal, with the chances of being in a genuine title challenge looking slim. The same cannot be said for Arsenal, who are in second place in the Premier League, two points off Liverpool, and riding the wave of a five-game winning streak.
One of the key contributors to Arsenal's winning streak has been the brilliant Bukayo Saka, and we’re backing the England star to score, something you can bet at very attractive odds of +200.
Saka has become the first name on the team sheet for Mikel Arteta and although we often see Arsenal’s other key players rested or rotated, we rarely see Saka on the bench or subbed out. He’s a genuine superstar and is finally back to his best after a reasonably poor start to the season by his standards.
Arsenal are in sensational form, with their five-game winning streak in the Premier League seeing them score five or more goals on three occasions. They’ve scored 21 times across those five games and Saka has been the standout, scoring five goals and assisting one more.
With Saka hitting the best form of his season so far, it feels like huge value getting +200 on him scoring, especially when Porto’s defense features Pepe. The former Real Madrid central defender has had a fine career and is hugely experienced but at 40 years old, he won’t be able to cope with Saka’s speed and runs.
Saka has scored 12 goals in 24 Premier League games this season, a return of one goal every two games, as well as setting up seven more goals for his teammates. In the Champions League, his record is even better. He played five times in the group stage, finding the back of the net three times and popping up with four assists too.
Against a Porto team who aren’t in the best form, we should feel confident that Saka can continue his exceptional run to add another goal to an already impressive tally for the season.
My best bet: Bukayo Saka anytime goal (+200 at TonyBet)
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FC Porto vs Arsenal same-game parlay
Bukayo Saka anytime goal
Bukayo Saka Over 1.5 tackles
Arsenal moneyline
In addition to targeting a Saka goal, we will also bet on the young English forward having Over 1.5 tackles. He’s known for the work he does further up the pitch and the fear he puts into defenders, but it’s worth remembering that he broke into the Arsenal team playing left back and if you look back across the season, he’s averaged two tackles across 24 Premier League games and also two per game over five Champions League games.
With his energy, speed, and determination, he is always happy to track back and put in defensive work, something that should see him having two or more tackles vs. Porto.
To wrap up, we’re going to back the Gunners to win and take a lead back to the second leg in London. Arsenal are in such great form, scoring 21 goals over their last five wins that they’re full of confidence. They have become streetwise under Arteta and will be able to make their superior ability count and put an out-of-form Porto team away.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
FC Porto vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the moneyline, you can’t beat Arsenal winning at -143. The odds are a little too short for me to put it up as my best bet, but given the great form that we’ve seen from Arsenal, as well as Porto having some recent struggles, it’s the best way to bet if you’re intent on backing the moneyline. Porto are a big +440 price to win at home with the draw at +280, but in all likelihood, it’s going to be the English side winning this.
Bookies think it’ll be a low-scoring clash, with Over 2.5 goals at +102 and Under 2.5 goals at -121. We saw Over 2.5 goals in four of both Arsenal's and Porto’s six Champions League group games, but with this being the first leg, we’re likely for it to lean toward being a cagey game.
Domestically, we’ve seen Arsenal hit Over 2.5 goals in 64% of their games, something that drops to 53.8% when on the road. Interestingly, Porto have seen Over 2.5 goals in just 36.4% of their league games at Estadio do Dragao. I’d lean towards backing the Under but it’s tough to predict and I’d recommend targeting other markets.
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FC Porto vs Arsenal game info
| Location: | Estadio do Dragao, Porto, Portugal |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 21, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Weather: | 56F, 0% POP, 4 mph winds, cloudy |
FC Porto vs Arsenal key injuries
FC Porto: Ivan Marcano CB (Out), Mehdi Taremi STR (Out).
Arsenal: Jurrien Timber DEF (Out), Thomas Partey DM (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Out), Fabio Vieira CAM (Out), Gabriel Jesus STR (Out), Oleksandr Zinchenko LB (Out).
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