Chelsea vs Man City Predictions and Picks: Blues Out of City Limits

Sunday’s five Premier League games are headlined by Chelsea vs Man City at Stamford Bridge. It’s a blockbuster game following Chelsea’s 4-1 win over Spurs and with Man City entering this weekend as the Premier League’s top team.

Can Mauricio Pochettino defy the EPL odds and pull off a masterclass to take points from Man City? 

I give you my best free EPL predictions for Chelsea vs Man City on November 12. 

Chelsea vs Man City best odds

EPL predictions for Chelsea vs Man City

We’ve got five Premier League games on this Sunday but there’s one that stands above the rest; Chelsea vs Manchester City. 

The visitors came into the weekend at the top of the Premier League, with nine wins from 11 games and two defeats. They’ve scored a league-high 28 goals and allowed just eight goals, the lowest in the Premier League. By nearly any metric this team is the best in the Premier League and in my opinion, they’re the best on the planet.

It’s going to be a tough ask for Chelsea to take anything from this but there’s a feelgood atmosphere around Stamford Bridge following their 4-1 win over London rivals Spurs on Monday. That win only managed to push Chelsea up into 10th, just inside the top half of the Premier League table, but can they do the unthinkable and beat Man City?

My best bet focuses on my belief that they won’t. I think there is great value to be had in backing Man City to win this one. If you want to back Man City on the moneyline you can get Pep Guardiola’s men at -143. That feels like huge value to me. Those odds imply a 58.8% chance that Man City win but I have those chances being far closer to 70%. That said, I don’t want to be writing articles suggesting backing prices as short as -143, so I have another bet at a far more attractive +205 for Chelsea vs Man City, that is Man City -1 on the handicap.

Firstly, let’s talk about Chelsea. While that win over Spurs was great for supporters you can’t remove the fact that it was against a nine-man Tottenham team. If Spurs had 11 men on the pitch then I can’t see Chelsea winning and I’d argue that Spurs looked like the team most likely to go on and win. It was their own ill-discipline that saw them get two players sent off but I don’t think Chelsea can get a huge amount of credit from the game, in fact I think it took them far too long to take advantage of the numbers advantage and some truly reckless defending from Spurs, before that they didn’t look able to break them down at all.

If it’s hard to break down a nine-man Spurs then Man City are a different beast altogether. This is a side that won the treble last season and has conceded just eight goals in 11 Premier League games this season. Rodri is back from suspension and they instantly look far better once again. His positioning at the base of that midfield makes them so hard to break down and I don’t believe this Chelsea team has the facilities to do it.

Then you have Man City’s attack. They’ve scored 28 goals this season, with Erling Haaland bagging 11 which is more than six whole Premier League teams have managed, and only six goals (Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden have combined for six) less than Chelsea.

Man City have scored at least two goals in nine of 11 Premier League games so far and have kept a clean sheet in their last six meetings with Chelsea. Back Man City -1, they should win this with ease.

My best bet: Manchester City -1 (+205 at TonyBet)

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Chelsea vs Man City same-game parlay

Man City to win by 2+ goals

Erling Haaland to score

Conor Gallagher to be booked

+750 at bet365

We kick this one off with our best bet for the game which is Man City to win by two or more goals. This team is simply so good and I think the 4-1 win over Spurs hugely flattered Chelsea who were largely poor. The gulf in quality between these teams is vast and City should be able to pick up the three points with ease.

Next, we’ll be backing Erling Haaland to score. He’s averaged a goal per game in the Premier League so far this season and he’s averaged 3.8 shots per game, so he’s getting in dangerous positions and should be able to do so again against this Chelsea backline.

Finally, we’re backing Conor Gallagher to get booked. So far this season he’s only found his name in the referee’s book once despite committing a high 1.9 fouls per game. Both of those numbers should rise on Sunday with a midfield battle against Man City being one of the hardest in the game. Gallagher has had 31 cards in the Premier League across the past three seasons and we should see him return to that soon.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chelsea vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned earlier in the article I think -143 on Man City to win is huge value. This is one of the very best teams on the planet and they’re playing a Chelsea team who have only won one of their last three and needed to play nine men to do it. They should win this and the +415 on Chelsea or +265 on the draw aren’t big enough for me.

You can get -118 on Over 2.5 goals and -105 on Under 2.5 goals. We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in all but one of Man City’s six away games in the Premier League and I would back the Over here.

Chelsea vs Man City game info

Chelsea vs Man City key injuries

Chelsea: Wesley Fofana CB (Out), Christopher Nkunku STR (Out), Romeo Lavia CM (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Carney Chukwuemeka CM (Out), Trevor Chalobah CB (Out), Armando Broja STR (Questionable)
Man City: John Stones CB (Out), Kevin De Bruyne CAM (Out), Sergio Gomez LB (Out), Manuel Akanji CB (Questionable)

Chelsea vs Man City recent league form

Teams	Recent Premier League Form
Chelsea	W-W-W-L-L
Man City	W-L-D-W-W

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