Canada have one foot in the CONCACAF Nations League semifinals after a road win in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie with Jamaica, but they can’t afford any slip-ups in Tuesday’s return game in Toronto.
After the first leg was delayed until Saturday due to heavy rain, the Canadians gained the upper hand with a tap-in from Jonathan David and a late winner from Stephen Eustaquio.
Shamar Nicholson was on target for the Jamaicans, but it wasn’t enough to save their five-game unbeaten run. The Reggae Boyz struggled to create chances despite an almost 50/50 possession split and now faces an uphill battle to turn things around at BMO Field.
Read on for our free betting picks for Canada vs. Jamaica ahead of this November 21 showdown.
Canada vs Jamaica best odds
|Over 2.5 (-118)||Total||Under 2.5 (-127)|
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on November 20, 2023.
Canada vs Jamaica picks and predictions
It’s been a tricky start for interim Canada boss Mauro Biello, who was thrown into the job after John Herdman’s departure. The Canadian squad has been hampered by off-field challenges and a dip in form on the pitch, making World Cup qualification feel like a distant memory.
Given all that, the 2-1 win in Jamaica on Saturday was a much-needed boost. It wasn’t always pretty, but the Canadians gutted out just their second win in their past seven fixtures.
Holding a narrow lead, I expect Canada to be content with a cagier battle on Tuesday. As such, I’m targeting the Under on 2.5 total goals, in part because these teams face a quicker turnaround than expected after the rescheduled first leg.
I’m also looking at the selection headaches for Jamaica. Their attack took a hit on Saturday when Michail Antonio limped off after just 20 minutes. Antonio is facing a lengthy absence and Demarai Gray is questionable with a muscle injury, which puts a huge burden on Leon Bailey and Bobby De Cordova-Reid.
The hosts have the edge on attacking talent but no major incentive to take risks in this second leg. They’re already in pole position in the tie and can afford to take a more defensive approach.
It’s set to be a wet night at BMO Field and we could see both teams falling short of top gear in testing conditions. I’ll take these odds for goalscoring chances to come at a premium in Tuesday’s second leg.
My best bet: Under 2.5 (-127 at TonyBet)
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Canada vs Jamaica same-game parlay
If this ends up as a low-scoring game, I’m taking the Canadians to edge it. They’ve got the benefit of the home crowd and they bring a greater goal threat in the final third, especially with Alphonso Davies’ pace and vision on the left wing.
The Jamaicans will have to chase a goal at some stage and that could open up more opportunities for the hosts’ forwards on the counter-attack.
I’ll also pump up the odds by leaning back into the script of a low-scoring game and wagering that there won’t be a goal in both halves on Tuesday night. If Canada are still ahead on aggregate, I expect Biello’s men to be happy to run down the clock in the second half.
Canada vs Jamaica side and Over/Under analysis
Back on home soil, the Canadians are well placed to book their place in the semifinals — and they’re favorites to follow up Saturday’s 2-1 win with another victory here. However, with the hosts already ahead in the tie, the odds for a draw are also worth a long look.
Canada needed a response in Jamaica after a dismal performance in the 4-1 loss to Japan in October, and they turned 50% possession into 18 shots in the first leg, with seven on target, while the Jamaicans managed just two attempts on target.
Though the last two meetings between these teams both served up three or more goals, the prior two matchups had cashed the Under on 2.5 total goals — and that’s where I’m leaning for this second leg.
Jamaica arrive on the heels of some rough injury luck, and Canada’s David and Cyle Larin haven’t been in scoring form at club level. David was back among the goals at the weekend but he hasn’t scored in any of his last 10 games at club level for Lille. In short, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a defensive scrap here.
Saturday’s contest was also a reminder that Canada represent a step up in quality for the Reggae Boyz compared to some of their recent opponents.
Jamaica scored 10 goals across their four CONCACAF Nations League group stage outings — against Honduras, Grenada, and Haiti twice — before a more labored effort at the weekend.
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Canada vs Jamaica game info
|Location:||BMO Field, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Tuesday, November 21, 2023|
|Time:||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Weather:||44 F, 23 mph winds, POP 90%, Humidity 90%|
Canada vs Jamaica key injuries