Still searching for their first win under Roberto De Zerbi’s tutelage, Brighton hosts bottom-of-the-table Nottingham in a must-win tilt for the home side.
Brighton is winless in three since the new manager took the helm after Graham Potter left for Chelsea. Nobody will fault De Zerbi’s Brighton for failing to beat Liverpool away and Tottenham at home.
However, despite outshooting Brentford 21- 7, Brighton fell 2-0 to the Bees on Oct. 14, a bitterly disappointing result for De Zerbi. The Seagulls committed cardinal sins at inopportune times to seal their fate at the Gtech Community Stadium.
The Italian gaffer knows his side can ill-afford a negative result on Tuesday against a Nottingham Forest side that is winless in eight matches and rooted to the foot of the table.
Don't miss our Brighton vs. Nottingham betting picks and predictions for Tuesday, October 18.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest best odds
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest picks and predictions
Nottingham Forest is the runaway favorite to return to the Championship come season’s end. Steve Cooper’s side is as anemic offensively as it is defensively porous. They’ve conceded the second most goals (23) and scored the joint-second fewest (seven).
Even more foreboding for Cooper is his side’s away incompetence. Forest hasn’t scored in three straight and has mustered just a single goal in five on the road. Four goalless performances in five away tilts represent an abject return, providing ample evidence to support their status as relegation favorites.
Their single road point came at Everton, a 1-1 draw, on Aug. 20. The match at Goodison marked the only match Forest has managed a goal in hostile environs. They’ve been outscored 14-1 in five away encounters — including 11-0 in the previous three.
Forest showed signs of improvement at Wolves but missed a prime opportunity to nick a point when Brennan Johnson failed to score from the spot in the 79th minute.
Forest’s four previous losses came against direct relegation competitors Fulham, Bournemouth, Leicester, and Wolves — further cementing their likelihood of returning to the Championship.
Brighton needs a victory to prove they weren’t overachieving in the first six match weeks. After starting the campaign with a single defeat in six matches, Brighton has been shutout in consecutive matches and has a single win in five. The single win came at home against the league’s worst road side — Leicester City.
However, a win would see the Seagulls leapfrog into the fifth spot in the standings, a position everyone associated with the club would be proud of a quarter way through the season.
Expect Brighton to defeat Nottingham Forest in a low-scoring, scrappy affair, ending their three-match winless streak and handing De Zerbi his all-important first victory.
My best bet: Brighton to win and Under 3.5 total goals (+115 at BetMGM)
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Brighton vs Nottingham Forest side analysis
Nottingham Forest is desperate for an away goal after being shutout in three successive matches, losing 1-0 to Wolves, 4-0 to Leicester, and 6-0 to Manchester City. Unfortunately, Forest lacks the attacking prowess to garner an outburst on the south coast.
Johnson and Taiwo Awoniyi lead Forest with two goals apiece while three other players have one. Aside from Johnson’s missed penalty at Wolves, Forest hasn’t been overly wasteful in front of goal despite their languid goal return.
They have 8.4 expected goals, just 1.4 more than their actual return. So forest simply isn’t creating enough chances to give themselves a viable opportunity to climb the table.
Brighton has the third-best defensive home record, adding to the unlikelihood of a breakout offensive performance from the visiting relegation-embattled side. Conceding just three goals at home, the Seagulls have kept two clean sheets in four matches at the Amex Stadium.
Forest might find a way to muster a goal, but don’t expect them to score two, which they haven’t achieved in five away matches.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Over/Under analysis
Aside from Brighton’s five-goal explosion against Leicester, De Zerbi’s side has scored just one in three home matches.
Getting shutout in two of four home encounters should concern the Italian coach, who will look to rectify their offensive woes against the top flight’s second-most porous defense.
Three of Brighton’s four home matches resulted in the Under, and, excluding the anomalous 5-2 outburst against Leicester, only two combined goals have occurred at the Amex Stadium.
Only two of Forest’s previous six resulted in the Under, both coming in the most recent encounters.
However, this contest leans to the Under, with Brighton winning either 1-0 or 2-0. There is a chance Nottingham Forest ends its three-match away scoreless streak. If that happens, Brighton should win 2-1.
Expect a doggedly combative defensive affair with more chances falling to the home side.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest game info
|Location:||Amex Stadium, Brighton, England|
|Date:||Tuesday, October 18, 2022|
|Time:||2:30 p.m. ET|
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest key injuries
Brighton: Jakub Moder M (Out), Kaoru Mitoma M (Out).
Nottingham Forest: Omar Richards D (Out), Jack Colback M (Out), Moussa Niakhate D (Out).
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest weather
The temperature will be a cool and crisp 45 Fahrenheit for the evening kickoff. Winds will be 9 mph, and humidity is expected to be 81%. Currently, there is a relatively high 58% of precipitation.