Brighton vs Manchester United Picks and Predictions: Casemiro Sends Another One on Net

Only four teams in the Premier League get automatic qualification into next year’s Champions League, and Brighton and Manchester United will have that goal squarely in their sights when they face off on Thursday.

Brighton sit 11 points back of Manchester United but have two matches in hand, meaning anything less than a victory would likely end their hopes of finishing in the Top 4. Meanwhile, Manchester United know that they need just nine points from their final six matches to ensure they hold onto their fourth position in the table. 

Brighton will want revenge for their FA Cup semifinal defeat at the hands of the Red Devils, and a repeat of the reverse fixture that saw them win 2-0 earlier this season. 

Can Manchester United run their unbeaten league streak to six matches, or will the Seagulls keep their Champions League dreams alive? We dive deeper into those topics and more in our Brighton vs Manchester United picks and predictions for Thursday, May 4.

Brighton vs Manchester United best odds

Brighton vs Manchester United picks and predictions

Manchester United’s season has had its share of ups and downs, but they’ve been at their best when they’ve featured Bruno Fernandez, Casemiro, and Christian Eriksen in the middle of the park. The trio has started together 19 times this season in all competitions, and Manchester United have yet to lose any of them, with 16 wins and three draws with all three going from the opening whistle.

Regardless of who plays behind him in central defense, Casemiro has added a level of security at the base of the midfield that the club has been missing since the days of Michael Carrick and Darren Fletcher. His ability to read the play and win the ball back is irreplaceable, and it’s allowed Bruno and Eriksen the freedom to play with an attacking mindset no matter where they are on the pitch.

As the season has progressed, Casemiro has become more of a threat to score as well. He’s often been a threat on corner kicks, having scored multiple goals with his head, including the late equalizer against Chelsea in October. He’s put five past the keeper in all competitions for Man United this season, and is averaging just over one shot per contest.

But in his last six matches, coinciding with the end of his four-match Premier League ban, Casemiro has been much more involved in the attack. In their FA Cup semifinal match with Brighton, he put an effort on target from about 35 yards out. It marked one of four matches in those six where he’s put at least one shot on goal. 

The Brighton match went through a full 30 minutes of extra time, so the numbers are a bit skewed, but Casemiro had 76 touches and led all players in interceptions and tackles. It enabled him to have more than 20 touches within the distance from which he made an effort on goal, and he’s shown of late that he’s not afraid to let it fly. In fact, Man United’s 1-0 win over Aston Villa over the weekend saw him attempt two shots from outside the box, in addition to a 28th-minute effort that struck the bar from 12 yards out. 

bet365 is offering this prop at a surprising price of +275, which makes it far too generous of a line to pass up. Take Casemiro to find the target to nearly triple your wager.

My best bet: Casemiro 1+ shot on goal (+275 at bet365)

Brighton vs Manchester United side analysis

Brighton are even-money favorites in the 3-way line heading into the fixture, having been bet down from around +125 when the line came out after the FA Cup semifinal match between these two sides. Man United are residing in the +270 range, with the draw paying out slightly more.

Brighton have won three and drawn one in their last four at home, with five wins in the last seven at Amex Stadium. Despite resting numerous key players over the weekend, they ran roughshod over Wolves in a 6-0 win that saw Deniz Undav, Danny Welbeck, and Pascal Gross each record a brace. All their rested players are expected back, although Joel Veltman did come off injured and is doubtful for the match.

The Red Devils are unbeaten in their last five in the league, and only a late collapse against the Spurs prevented that from being a five-match winning streak. They’ve kept four clean sheets in that span, and are defending quite well despite the loss of Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez.

Man United’s last visit almost a year ago to the day saw them fall 4-0, ending a three-match win streak at the grounds. They also lost at home 2-1 earlier in the campaign, with their tally coming off an Alexis Mac Allister own goal. Combine that with the 0-0 scoreless draw that went to penalties in the FA Cup, and the Red Devils haven’t so much as scored a goal of their own in the past three meetings. 

This match feels like another draw to me, given how well Manchester United are defending and Brighton’s recent defeats to Nottingham Forest and Tottenham. Erik ten Hag found a way to neutralize Brighton’s pressure in the FA Cup, but it required reining in the attack and playing on the counter, and I expect the same gameplan on Thursday. That will likely lead to a share of the spoils, and a terrific value for draw bettors. 

Brighton vs Manchester United Over/Under analysis

Brighton’s last four Premier League matches have featured a total of 16 goals, and seven of their last nine have seen three or more goals scored. Five of those matches have seen four or more, which is partly why the total for this match is juiced heavily towards the Over. Most books are offering a line of 3.5 rather than the standard 2.5 total, but you can still get the Over 2.5 for a price around -175.

I’m on the Under in this one. Manchester United kept the aforementioned four clean sheets in their last five league matches, while eight of their last 12 matches in all competitions have seen no more than two goals. 

In addition, their away matches have been heavily one-sided of late. Win or lose, only one – the 2-2 draw last time out with Tottenham – of their last six true road matches saw both teams find the back of the net. 

The last five meetings at the Amex have all seen at least three goals, as have four of their last six meetings overall. But given the way the previous match played out, combined with Man United’s defensive performance of late and the fatigue issues in play for Brighton, I’d take the Under with such favorable odds.

Brighton vs Manchester United game info

Brighton vs Manchester United key injuries

Brighton: Tariq Lamptey D (Out), Adam Lallana M (Out), Joel Veltman D (Doubtful), Evan Ferguson F (Out)
Manchester United: Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Alejandro Garnacho F (Doubtful), Raphael Varane D (Out), Donny van de Beek M (Out). 

Brighton vs Manchester United recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Brighton	W-D-W-L-D
Manchester United	D-L-W-W-D

Brighton vs Manchester United weather

The skies over Brighton and Hove will be sunny and clear as the match kicks off, with temperatures in the mid-50s. There is a small chance of rain as the match progresses, but it would likely only impact the closing stages.

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