Eddie Howe is synonymous with AFC Bournemouth but on Saturday, he'll play the antagonist in the Cherries' fight for survival as his Newcastle United make the long trip south to the Vitality Stadium.
Despite some regression in recent weeks, Newcastle arrive on the South Coast still in the Top 4 — though less comfortably than before — and with just a single loss to their record. That's a whole different world to the one Bournemouth live in, with the relative minnows in the thick of a relegation scrap that could shake out in so many different ways.
Ahead of a match that could play a large part in the fight for Top 4 as well as Premier League survival, check out our picks and predictions for Bournemouth vs. Newcastle United on February 11.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle best odds
Bournemouth vs Newcastle picks and predictions
When Declan Rice's corner fell to the feet of Lucas Paqueta, who promptly turned it past Nick Pope and into Newcastle's goal, it marked the first league goal allowed by Pope since November 6.
In all likelihood, Pope and Newcastle's outstanding backline won't go another three months between conceding. Pope will probably not end the season with more clean sheets than goals allowed — after last Saturday's concession, it's now a dead heat: 12 goals conceded, 12 clean sheets.
That level of performance, while still punching well above their weight, isn't sustainable over such a long period. Over 90 minutes on the South Coast, however, it certainly is.
Bournemouth have been, quite decisively, the most toothless attack in the league this season. They've scored just once in six league games since the World Cup — against fellow relegation candidates Nottingham Forest — and have created little more.
The Cherries, on 19 goals, have scored more than five other teams toward the bottom of the table but have created fewer chances than everyone. Their 16.4 expected goals is significantly lower than the closest team, with Palace 19th in xG at 19.6. It's a similar outlook in shot-creating actions per 90, in which Bournemouth have averaged 14.62 — with Forest the closest team, at 17.05.
It's not a coincidence that Bournemouth's top scorers, on four goals apiece, are towering midfielder Philip Billing and the target man of all target men, Kieffer Moore. The Cherries' goal-scoring opportunities aren't the result of intricate passing and clever attacks. The chances created are manufactured, direct, and fairly predictable.
That sort of play isn't going to threaten the league's most physical team, who boasts the best defensive record. A ball gets crossed into the penalty area, and you think Newcastle are in danger? Newcastle are the ones who knock. Or something like that.
My best bet: Newcastle clean sheet (+100 at bet365)
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Bournemouth vs Newcastle side analysis
At -190 on the 3-way moneyline, with Bournemouth coming back at +550 (draw +300), there isn't any value in backing Newcastle straight up. Really, there isn't much logic in doing so at such a price, either, with Newcastle far from their best in recent weeks.
While a clean sheet for Nick Pope is the most likely outcome here, I will be sprinkling a little on Newcastle to win to nil at +137. Since a decent purple patch under then-interim manager Gary O'Neil, Bournemouth have been dreadful.
Their last 11 league games have seen them take just four points — three off lifeless Everton and one from Forest. Over that stretch, they've lost to teams like Tottenham, Man United, Brentford, and Brighton, all of whom are in similar standing to Newcastle this season.
Even with Newcastle's attack fairly unthreatening in recent matches, and their best player in Bruno Guimaraes suspended, they should be able to do enough to leave the Vitality with three points.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle Over/Under analysis
In addition to those clean sheet-related plays for Newcastle, I'll be making a pair of full-game total bets.
The first is the Under on the 2.5-goal total, at -125. That is a near autoplay when Newcastle are involved, with an impenetrable defense combined with a struggling attack. With Callum Wilson massively out of form — even after scoring in the opening moments last weekend, he wasn't sharp over the remainder of the match — tasking Newcastle with three goals themselves is too much.
Similarly, I'll be playing the Under 1.5 (+240), as even two goals is a bit much to ask from Newcastle's attack at the moment. A 1-0 result for Newcastle is the most likely on the South Coast.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle game info
| Location: | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England |
| Date: | Saturday, February 11, 2023 |
| Time: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Bournemouth vs Newcastle key injuries
Bournemouth: Lewis Cook CM (Questionable), Dominic Solanke ST (Questionable), Marcus Tavernier AM (Questionable), Lloyd Kelly CB (Out), Jack Stephens CB (Out), Ryan Fredericks RB (Out).
Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes CM (Out), Alexander Isak ST (Questionable), Matt Targett LB (Out).
Bournemouth vs Newcastle recent form
| Teams | Last five matches |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth | L-D-L-L-L |
 Newcastle |
D-D-W-D-D |
Bournemouth vs Newcastle weather
A pleasant evening on the South Coast is forecast for Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be around 50 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff, with no wind and just a 10% chance of rain in the forecast.
