Aston Villa vs West Ham Predictions and Picks: Hammers Get Hammered in Villa Park

Aston Villa and West Ham have impressed thus far in the Premier League, with a big three points on the line come Sunday. With Villa's offense clicking this season, our EPL picks have them to snag the win over the Hammers.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Oct 20, 2023 • 10:56 ET • 4 min read
Ollie Watkins EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s Aston Villa vs West Ham this Sunday, with both clubs looking to continue what have been incredible seasons so far. Aston Villa came into the weekend fifth in the Premier League with West Ham just two spots behind in seventh. 

Both sides are currently exceeding expectations, but this will be a tough test for all involved and will give one team a chance to make a statement about what they can achieve in the Premier League this season. At the moment, Premier League odds the home side favored at around -120.

Don’t miss my Aston Villa vs West Ham EPL predictions to find out who I think will snag three points this weekend.

Aston Villa vs West Ham best odds

EPL predictions for Aston Villa vs West Ham

We only have one Premier League game this Sunday but it’s primed to be an exciting matchup with Aston Villa vs West Ham.

Both Unai Emery and David Moyes have been unfairly criticized by both fans and the media for past jobs in the Premier League, but last season they really underlined why they earned moves to Arsenal and Man Utd. Despite being hugely impressed by both managers and their teams this season, there’s only one team I feel confident in putting my money on this Sunday — Aston Villa.

Only two teams had scored more goals than Aston Villa before this weekend, with Villa’s 19 goals ahead of the likes of Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, and Liverpool — all teams getting praise for their attack abilities.

Amongst the new arrivals at Villa Park have been the likes of Nicolo Zaniolo, but it’s Moussa Diaby who has really shone brightest. The 24-year-old Frenchman has given Ollie Watkins the perfect foil in attack and has already bagged two goals while assisting on three more.

Diaby’s ability with the ball at his feet will cause West Ham problems and his dribbling and directness could be an issue, especially if he can isolate either Neyef Aguerd or Kurt Zouma at the heart of West Ham’s back line.

Villa's midfield duo of Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara are able to both transition while also stopping the opposition — something which gives them the advantage here. Ezra Konsa and Pau Torres also offer a great combination at the back and will be amongst the hardest central defenders that West Ham’s Michail Antonio has faced this season.

Aston Villa are really good and rank amongst the very best in the EPL. While I like West Ham and on their day they can cause Villa issues, I feel like this is a game that Villa will win nine times out of 10. 

My best bet: Aston Villa moneyline (-119 at TonyBet)

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Aston Villa vs West Ham same-game parlay

Aston Villa ML

Paqueta to get booked

Watkins to score first

I'm expecting West Ham’s Brazilian midfielder Lucas Paqueta to get booked. In eight Premier League games so far this year he’s averaged 2.3 fouls per game, the most on his team, and has already picked up four yellow cards. He tackles a lot and this means he’s always at an increased chance of bookings.

Finally, I’ll be backing Aston Villa’s England striker Ollie Watkins to score first. Through eight games he’s already scored four times, adding another four assists, and is the real deal up front. He also managed to get on the scoresheet for England during the international break and will be coming into this game in good form.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Aston Villa vs West Ham side and Over/Under analysis

I think the -119 on Aston Villa to win is a great price and appeals a lot more than either a West Ham win at +275 or a draw at +295. 

We should see goals here with Over 2.5 goals at -182 and Under 2.5 goals priced at +145 by the bookies. There’s good reason for that, with Over 2.5 goals landing in six of Villa’s eight EPL games this season, including all three of their home matches. It’s also landed in three of West Ham’s four games on the road, which should give confidence there’s a good chance of it happening again here.

Aston Villa vs West Ham game info

Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
Date: Sunday, October 22, 2023
Time: 11:30 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network
Weather: 84% humidity, 0% precipitation, 48 degrees Farenheit

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Aston Villa vs West Ham key injuries

Aston Villa: Emiliano Buendia CM (Out), Tyrone Mings CB (Out), Jacob Ramsey CM (Out), Alex Moreno LB (Out).
West Ham: Ben Johnson FB (Questionable), Aaron Cresswell LB (Questionable), Luckasz Fabianski GK (Questionable).

Aston Villa vs West Ham recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Aston Villa Aston Villa D-W-L-L-W
West Ham West Ham D-W-W-W-L

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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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