The FA Cup returns on Saturday, highlighted by a showdown between Aston Villa and Newcastle.
Villa sit third in the league table, but their underlying numbers suggest they’ve been overperforming, which makes them look overpriced in this spot.
That’s why our Aston Villa vs. Newcastle predictions are backing the Magpies to win as a value play.
Find out more in my free betting picks for February 14, with kickoff set for 12:45 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle picks and predictions
My Aston Villa vs Newcastle best bet: Newcastle moneyline (+200 at Sports Interaction)
The underlying data suggests these two teams are much closer than the league table indicates.
Only Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded fewer goals than Aston Villa this season, but Villa have vastly overperformed, with xGA showing they’ve allowed 11.65 fewer goals than expected.
Meanwhile, Newcastle is underperforming in attack, scoring 37 goals compared to an xG of 43.81, while also conceding 3.69 more goals than xGA projects.
When teams are this closely matched, back the underdog to come out on top.
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle same-game parlay (SGP)
Harvey Barnes 1+ shots on target
Anthony Gordon 1+ shots on target
Ollie Watkins 1+ shots on target
Harvey Barnes has been a regular fixture for Newcastle this season, averaging 1.04 shots on target per 90 minutes in league play.
Teammate Anthony Gordon is close behind at 0.82 shots on target per 90. He shifted into a central striker role midweek, which boosts his value in this market.
For Villa, Ollie Watkins continues to impress, posting 1.13 shots on target per 90 minutes in the EPL.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle odds
 Aston Villa |
 Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| +115 | Moneyline | +200 |
| +275 | Draw | +275 |
| Over 2.5 (-159) | Total | Under 2.5 (+110) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
How to watch Aston Villa vs Newcastle
| Location | Villa Park, Birmingham, England |
| Date | Saturday, February 14, 2026 |
| Time | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Weather | Cloudy |
Aston Villa vs Newcastle key injuries
Aston Villa: Boubacara Kamara CM (Out), Youri Tielemans CM (Out), John McGinn CM (Out).
Newcastle: Joelinton CM (Out), Emil Krafth DEF (Out), Jamaal Lascelles DEF (Out), Tino Livramento FB (Out), Fabian Schar DEF (Out), Lewis Miley CM (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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