On Wednesday, Arsenal welcome Sevilla to the Emirates for Champions League action. Group B is poised on a knife edge, with Arsenal on top but only four points clear of both PSV and Wednesday’s opponents Sevilla, who sit on two points apiece.
There are still plenty of twists and turns left ahead in Group F but can Arsenal get closer to the Champions League knockout stages with three points at home?
Don’t miss our Champions League tips and predictions for Arsenal vs. Sevilla on Wednesday, November 8.
Arsenal vs Sevilla best odds
Arsenal vs Sevilla picks and predictions
We have a cracking game lined up in the Champions League this Wednesday with Arsenal vs. Sevilla. Just two weeks ago, we saw Arsenal win the reverse fixture 2-1 in Spain but now they’re back at the Emirates and will be hoping that home advantage could get them another win. Just four points separate top and bottom in Group F, making it tied for the tightest group in the Champions League this season.
Both teams have had very different domestic seasons at this point. Arsenal lost 1-0 to Newcastle this past Saturday but they’re still in the Top 4 of the Premier League and remain very much part of the title race.
The same can’t be said for Sevilla, who are 15th in the La Liga table and already 20 points behind Girona at the top. In fact, they’re only three spots and four points clear of the relegation zone and need to be paying more attention to the possibility of going down than winning domestic silverware this year. It’s on that backdrop of a poor season that my best bet for Arsenal vs Sevilla is for the home side to be winning and halftime and full-time.
As much as we’re used to seeing Sevilla in the knockout stages of Europe’s second tournament, the Europa League, they’ve never been that successful in the Champions League, and they look far from the team we’ve seen in the past this season in particular. They have averaged a point per game domestically and have been allowed nearly 1.5 goals per game, something that seems very un-Sevilla given what we’ve seen in previous years. They’re also yet to pick up a win in Group B of the Champions League, managing draws against Lens and PSV before getting beaten by Arsenal in their last UCL game.
I can’t see anything but an Arsenal win here but at -333, I can’t see any value in backing them on the moneyline, which makes backing them at halftime and full-time a far smarter play. If you look back at Arsenal’s three Champions League games so far this season, they’ve been winning at halftime in two games and drawing in the other. They held a 3-0 lead at the interval against PSV, a 1-0 lead in their last game against Sevilla, and were level at 1-1 against Lens. This is a team that generally starts well.
As you’d expect given that they’ve not yet won a game, we haven’t seen Sevilla ahead at halftime in any of their three Champions League games this season, and they’ve only led after 45 minutes once, domestically.
Arsenal may be without Gabriel Jesus, who is one of their best attacking players, but they have two seriously talented forwards in Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka who will scare the life out of Sevilla. And they have a striker — Eddie Nketiah — capable of scoring if needed. Back Arsenal to be winning at halftime and full-time.
My best bet: Arsenal/Arsenal (halftime/full-time) (-108 at TonyBet)
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Arsenal vs Sevilla same-game parlay
Arsenal/Arsenal (HT/FT)
Both teams to score - Yes
Gabriel Martinelli anytime goal
I’m expecting another strong start from the Gunners. They’re a top side and they should be able to get this game off with a bang in front of the Emirates crowd.
Next, we’re backing both teams to score. Sevilla won't win this game but they have a good chance of scoring. We saw them net in the first game between these teams just two weeks ago and despite a bad start in La Liga, they’re still scoring around 1.5 goals per game. Arsenal have also let their opposition score in all three of their Champions League games so far, and four of their six home games in the Premier League have seen both teams scoring.
Finally, we’ll back Arsenal’s Brazilian left-sided forward Gabriel Martinelli to score. Thanks to injury, he’s only played one Champions League game so far this season, but he found the back of the net, and his performances this season have in general been very impressive.
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Arsenal vs Sevilla side and Over/Under analysis
I think we’re going to see Arsenal win here but I can’t in all good faith recommend backing them at -333. It’s hard to really suggest any team winning at those odds in a tournament as unpredictable as the Champions League. I’d argue there’s better value on the draw at +475, although I don’t think we’re going to see it, and I really can’t see an away win at +880 but it is a big price.
You can get -118 on BTTS, which feels a good price considering how leaky Arsenal have been in the Champions League this season, and I’d argue that is far better value than -200 on Over 2.5 goals with the Under priced at +160.
Arsenal vs Sevilla game info
| Location: | Emirates Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 7, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | DAZN |
| Weather: | 55F, 7% POP at game time, 8 mph northeast winds, rain subsided but wet conditions |
Arsenal vs Sevilla key injuries
Arsenal: Jurrien Timber CB (Out), Thomas Partey DM (Out), Gabriel Jesus FWR (Out), Emile Smith Rowe CAM (Out), Martin Odegaard CM (Questionable).
Sevilla: Sergio Ramos CB (Quesitonable).
