Futures markets are one of the most enjoyable aspects of attacking the World Cup from a financial aspect. If you have a good feel for the participants and their matchups, you can find some real value in the market.
With the opening match of the World Cup just over a week away, now is a great time to make some predictions on what will transpire over the next few weeks.
Here are the three predictions I recommend locking in at Kalshi — one of our favorite prediction market apps — before the world’s biggest soccer tournament gets underway.
Best World Cup Futures to make right now
| Bet |  |
Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Any African Nation to Win Its Group — No | 55¢ | -122 |
| England Eliminated in Round of 16 — Yes | 19¢ | +246 |
| Pedri to Win Golden Ball | 4¢ | +2400 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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Bet #1: Any African Nation to Win their Group — No
One of the markets you can predict is whether any nation from a confederation will win its group. The Confederation of African Football will see a record 10 participants in the 2026 World Cup, thanks to the tournament’s expansion, meaning 10 possible groups to be won.
However, we can already rule some of them out. Algeria, Cape Verde, DR Congo, and Ghana aren’t winning a group. South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, and Tunisia are all good enough to advance, but it would take a lot of luck to finish first in their groups.
That leaves Morocco and the Ivory Coast. The Ivory Coast would have to top not only Germany but also Ecuador, so it’s highly unlikely they top the group. As for Morocco, they have the talent, but they’re also coming into the tournament with a manager who has managed them for just over three months, and they open with Brazil.
The biggest risk is that Morocco beats Brazil in that Matchday 1 affair to open Group C play. Morocco has the talent to pull it off, and Brazil have been inconsistent at times, especially during CONMEBOL qualification.
That said, now is the time to make the prediction because a Brazil victory would see the price shoot up north of 60¢. With the final wave of friendlies coming up over the next few days, I expect we will see some shifts in the market, and this might be closer to 65¢ before long.
Bet #2: England State of Elimination — Round of 16
Predicting when a team will exit the tournament takes foresight and a fair amount of luck, as multiple aspects must align. Your prediction only hits if they reach that round and then advance no further, but when you’re right, it’s extremely rewarding.
England comes into this tournament with a lot of question marks after the roster selection of manager Thomas Tuchel. One of the biggest concerns is who will generate chances for Harry Kane in matches that are low-scoring, given how many playmakers they left behind. They also lack players who can truly handle a high press.
That’s why I’m keying on the Three Lions falling to Mexico in the Round of 16. Should both teams win their groups and advance through the Round of 32, they would square off in Mexico City at the famed Azteca Stadium. As Chris Vasile’s excellent travel breakdown explains, Mexico would also have a massive advantage with minimal travel prior to this point.
Of course, the biggest risk is that this matchup doesn’t materialize. Mexico could be surprised by Czechia or South Korea and not win Group A, or perhaps not even reach the Round of 16. This would make it much easier for England to advance, avoiding the insane atmosphere they’d otherwise face.
The reason to make this prediction now is that the price of contracts will only increase if both teams begin their World Cup journeys with a win. People looking ahead will see this matchup potential, especially if England doesn’t look sharp in their group stage outings.
Bet #3: Pedri To Win Golden Ball
The Golden Ball award is handed out to the best player at the World Cup, not to be confused with the Golden Boot award given to the top scoring player. In fact, the two are rarely won by the same individual.
That’s why I love where Pedri sits on the Golden Ball market. There are currently 44 players with contracts priced above his 04¢ cost. His Spanish teammate, Lamine Yamal, is co-favorite with England’s Harry Kane at 13c each.
Much like Luka Modric at the 2018 World Cup, Pedri’s dominance in midfield provides plenty of opportunities to impress the voters. His 664 completed passes in the final third were the fourth-most of any player in the big five European leagues this season—and that’s before you factor in the 163 times he won back possession.
There’s a good possibility that Yamal will become the star of the show for Spain, who are favored to win the World Cup for a reason. The French trio of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise also poses a threat should France go all the way.
Yamal’s health is a real concern, though. While it’s been announced he will likely be fit for the opening match with Cape Verde, he’s going to be protected. Should his group stage minutes be limited, Pedri’s contract will likely go up quickly with a few strong performances.
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