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Strategy notes

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Strategy notes
BKFinancial PM BKFinancial
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 102
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/29/2013 11:51:02 AM

Too many people shoot-from-the-hip or do not actually have a solid plan for success.  Emotions and daily non-activities can create impulse buys which will eventually wreck your bankroll.  Are you a gambler or investor?

I started an (MBO) system to generate supplemental income.  After 15 years of trial and error, I believe I have a template for success.  However, regardless of any "system", you must be able to project the outcome of games to yield any profit.

Here are a few highlights from the plan:

1) Start with the End insight.  Start with a bankroll set aside for the venture.  What are your financial objectives? What winning percentage do you need to meet your financial objectives?  What % of my bankroll should I wager?

2)  Mine is 48=60.  To earn 48% of my bankroll, I must accurately win approx. 60% of my selections when wagering 2% of my bankroll. 

3)  Have a percentage breakdown of your 1%, 2% & 3% selections.  Example 1% & 3% selections account for 18-20% of the total selections respectively.  The other 60-64% of my selections are the 2% bankroll plays. 

4) Set the lines for next weeks upcoming line-up. Evaluate and review your odds vs. the handicapper's line.  If the variance is > 2 of your line, review game film to validate your pre-selection.  These are where many of my 3* selections originate.

4) Record all results and critique your selections.  Review and analyze the reasoning for the outcome to utilize this knowledge for future games this season. (Requires watching game footage)

5)  Record and review your betting trends. It's amazing what you find out about yourself when self-analyzing selections.  For example, I do not start until Week 2 of the NFL.  Historically, I found myself making selections on blind assumptions.  I also have identified streak trends, both positive and negative. 

6)  Throughout the season, search for 'value' teams.  Look for teams that are not sexy, but win outright and usually are getting points.  Last year, Northwestern was a 'value' team that covered often. 

7) Keep your emotions/biases in check.  Too many times, people invest with their heart and not their head.  If possible, try to stay away from your 'home' team or teams/players you have negative feelings. 

8) When your objective is met, stop!!! When I hit 48% of my bankroll, I'm finished until next season. 

Like anything in life, most short-cuts do not yield consistent long-term positive results.  At the end of the day, you have to do your homework to generate income in this business. 

This year, I will post all my selections in the NFL and CFB forums.  3 things will be certain.  I will be chastised for my losing selections, touted for my winners, and will earn 48% of my bankroll.

Hopefully, a few of these notes will help some folks.  These were just a few items I wanted to share.  Good luck to everyone this season!!!

donfernando PM donfernando
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 108
Participation Meter
Posted: 8/3/2015 5:58:34 PM
Forum: Systems & Strategies
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