MLB RPI 1st 5 innings 2012 ++ variations

Nice observation DG

Just a quick question Air1, 1st 5 innings, is that ML or RL? After 5 innings, if the team led by 1 point, they win?

I read that we may be able to double dip with this. Lets say game A 1st 5 won and game A RPI also won then its cleared. But if game A 1st 5 lost and game A RPI won, then the next day, game B 1st 5 is on the board for us but game A RPI is cleared and vice versa. So until the 1st 5 wins, we chase it and if it wins, we basically won twice in the series. Am I right Air1?

I wonder if it would be a good idea to take the + RL when offered instead of ML to prevent ties. I say when offered because only underdogs would get a + RL line. For me personally as my book does not offer alternate RL's for first 5, only full game.

To me....it only makes sense if 1st 5 has a high propensity of hitting versus the game.  If they align - meaning if you hit the game you usually hit the 1st 5 - then you might as well just add more money to your game bet, than the 1st 5.

I hope Air1 can add some detail on the difference between 1st 5 and game hits.

I came up with this because I was there for the KC loss last yr and if there is a way to avoid such a thing from happening again I would gladly do so. Also some books have limits on their plays and this might be a way around it.

@ DegenGamble - Mostly in the beginning of the season its like 60% the same winners.
I have given some of the major differences in my first post. 2 separate 2 game chase losses which were winners in a full game chase. Also a major difference was with KC, last yrs only loser would have become a Win.

@ CannedGoods - All systems should be stopped when rosters expand or slightly before.

@ BookieCrusher - Its ML..... so a score of 2-2 would be a tie and you lose/win nothing.
I am going to back-test some more with what you said as I need to check the continuation RPI plays also.

@joelifer - That would only apply in the beginning of the season. Last yr Cle was a 2 game chase loss and fell into the dog category in one of their games. So no It wouldn't help.

@degengamble - Starting from 6/20 RPI went on a hot streak and so did the 1st 5 innings.

Teams that won an RPI game and still had 2 more games left, but did NOT win the 1st 5 innings had 6 cases. all 6 went on to win in a 2 game chase and 5 of these 6 teams swept their next 2 games..... This counted for almost HALF of the sweeps for the RPI System.

As for teams who won their 1st 5 but not the Full game only 3 cases. TB lost both of the 1st 5 innings in their next 2 games. Phi + Bos had a4 game series and both lost their C game 1st 5 innings. THIS sample size is too small.

Lastly the continuation of the RPI for the 1st 5 innings works just as effectively as the full game

So simply put, we can double dip on every series that's an RPI play? Is my understanding correct?

Great idea, only problem I see is what if you get a tie during a 'B' game, would you continue to chase at the 'C' game?

@ peter - Yes I would continue with the 1st 5 innings until the 'C' game. However I would only bet to win what I lost +1 unit only.

@BC YUPP!

Went over my MLB RPI Spreadsheet and came up with a few correlations or variation systems to the rpi system by b2w

Please pardon the brief explanations to the systems. Not too hard to guess, so if anyone does I will confirm it.

System #1: 1st 5 innings chase on RPI Teams

System #2: 47-0 last yr chase certain winners to win again. 5-0 this yr

System #3: 2 game chase in same series to win again. 6-0 last yr. 1-0 this yr.

System #4: Losers chase 11-0 last yr. 1-0 this yr Tex losing their 2nd game against Oak.

Totals to +93 units Last season! That was without the continuation Plays. We will have even more plays this season!

Play:
System #4: Chase LAD to lose a game starting Friday. Part of continuation that was not tested last season.

LAD B game winner for the 1st 5 innings.
Text C game winner for the 1st 5 innings.

This season
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-0

Combined total this season so far 16-0

wow Sunday's C bet to fade the dodgers. I think i am going to tweak system 4 and go with 2 losses to the same opponent.
I.E. tex lost 2 to KC and then fell perfectly into the system and lost 2 of their next 3.
I however believe it is safer to just chase for 1 loss.

Hope we get some real RPI plays for monday.

Monday: yanks, rangers, o's

This season so far
System #1: 9-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-1 (has been tweaked since loss)

Combined total this season so far 16-1

CORRECTION AGAIN
Plays are Yanks 1st 5 innings, Mia 1st 5 innings and Bal is very close, so unofficial play for 1st 5 innings.

Mia + Bal won 1st 5 innings yesterday
Today Yanks B game.
Unofficial play on Bal to win the Full Game. add 1 unit

This season
System #1: 10-0
System #2: 5-0
System #3: 1-0
System #4: 1-0
Unofficial plays 3-1 -10.24 units.

Combined total this season so far 16-0

So far for Thursday System #2: Chase Mia to win