Posted:
#1
OK. I took it upon myself to start up a new thread for this season as the old one was getting clogged up and full of animosity. Here, we're gonna keep everything legit and open and try to collectively beat the books.
If you don't know what sabermetrics are then PLEASE familiarize yourself here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics but basically sabermetrics is the objective application of data to certain instances in the game of baseball. In our case, we are going to try and use sabermetrics to correctly determine SIDES and TOTALS.
I'm no expert in this area, in fact, I know close to nothing. But from what I understand, there are hundreds of sabermetric formulas and it is up to us to determine which ones to use and how exactly to apply them. I'm going to list and describe a few of the basic ones and we can get a discussions going on which ones should be included/omitted. Please feel free to add some in or correct me if I'm wrong. I just want to get some positive discussion going as the season is just around the corner.
Base Runs (BsR) is the first formula. It's used to estimate the number of runs a team "should" have scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter/pitcher creates/allows. This is by far one of the most valuable and widely used formula. There is a multiplier that is customizable to any league, date, or other data set... Very useful. Most sabermetricians say to use lifetime figures for this, but I was thinking of doing a base runs for lifetime, seasonal, and last 10 games and making an average. What do you think?
On-base plus slugging (OPS) is calculated as the sum of a player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The ability of a player to both get on base and to hit for power, two important hitting skills, are represented. This makes an especially effective way of measuring the player's offensive worth. It weighs on-base average and slugging percentage equally, although on-base average correlates better with scoring runs so we may need to find a way to account for that but other than that, this could be averaged off with the batting average, the true average, and other similar formulas.
True Average (TAv) {Formerly Equivalent Average (EqA)} is a metric intended to express the production of hitters in a context independent of park and league effects. This shows a hitter's pure skill.
Defense-independent pitching statistics (DIPS) ERA measure a pitcher's effectiveness based only on plays that do not involve fielders: home runs allowed, strikeouts, hit batters, walks, fly ball percentage, ground ball percentage, and (to a lesser extent) line drive percentage. Those plays are under only the pitcher's control in the sense that fielders have no effect on their outcome. This can be averaged with the normal ERA or even combined with individual defensive metrics...??
Peripheral ERA (PERA) It's a pitching statistic that computes the expected ERA, taking into account park-adjusted hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed. Very good when in use with the TAv.
Secondary average (SecA) is a sabermetric measurement of hitting performance. It is a complement to the batting average, which is a simple ratio of base hits to at bats. Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources (extra base hits, walks, and net bases) to at bats. Always good to have a second opinion!
A late-inning pressure situation (LIPS) is a baseball statistic developed to determine if clutch hitters exist. We could use this to determine how often a home teams uses their last 3 bottom-half innings to turn the game around and win the game or push the total.
Speed Score determines a team's speed based on it's players. It includes five factors: stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base. Some feel that speed doesn't play a part in baseball but it most certainly does. It's always nice to bet on an athletic and speedy team, they're never out of it.
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) It's the frequency of which a batter reaches a base after putting the ball in the field of play. For pitchers (a measure of the hitters they face), it's a good measure of luck. So pitchers with high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances adjust to the mean.
Defensive efficiency (Def Eff) It's the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense. Can be approximated with (1 - BABIP).
Pythagorean expectation: It's a formula that resembles the mathematical Pythagorean theorem and is used to estimate how many games a baseball team should have won, based on how many runs a team scored and allowed. Comparing the two percentages can determine how lucky or clutch a team was.
Walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) It's the average number of walks and hits allowed by the pitcher per inning. (BB + H divided by IP).
Lets try to develop a comprehensive formula using these and other sabermetrics so we can start tracking, baseball is weeks away and I want some winners!
If you don't know what sabermetrics are then PLEASE familiarize yourself here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics but basically sabermetrics is the objective application of data to certain instances in the game of baseball. In our case, we are going to try and use sabermetrics to correctly determine SIDES and TOTALS.
I'm no expert in this area, in fact, I know close to nothing. But from what I understand, there are hundreds of sabermetric formulas and it is up to us to determine which ones to use and how exactly to apply them. I'm going to list and describe a few of the basic ones and we can get a discussions going on which ones should be included/omitted. Please feel free to add some in or correct me if I'm wrong. I just want to get some positive discussion going as the season is just around the corner.
Base Runs (BsR) is the first formula. It's used to estimate the number of runs a team "should" have scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter/pitcher creates/allows. This is by far one of the most valuable and widely used formula. There is a multiplier that is customizable to any league, date, or other data set... Very useful. Most sabermetricians say to use lifetime figures for this, but I was thinking of doing a base runs for lifetime, seasonal, and last 10 games and making an average. What do you think?
On-base plus slugging (OPS) is calculated as the sum of a player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The ability of a player to both get on base and to hit for power, two important hitting skills, are represented. This makes an especially effective way of measuring the player's offensive worth. It weighs on-base average and slugging percentage equally, although on-base average correlates better with scoring runs so we may need to find a way to account for that but other than that, this could be averaged off with the batting average, the true average, and other similar formulas.
True Average (TAv) {Formerly Equivalent Average (EqA)} is a metric intended to express the production of hitters in a context independent of park and league effects. This shows a hitter's pure skill.
Defense-independent pitching statistics (DIPS) ERA measure a pitcher's effectiveness based only on plays that do not involve fielders: home runs allowed, strikeouts, hit batters, walks, fly ball percentage, ground ball percentage, and (to a lesser extent) line drive percentage. Those plays are under only the pitcher's control in the sense that fielders have no effect on their outcome. This can be averaged with the normal ERA or even combined with individual defensive metrics...??
Peripheral ERA (PERA) It's a pitching statistic that computes the expected ERA, taking into account park-adjusted hits, walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed. Very good when in use with the TAv.
Secondary average (SecA) is a sabermetric measurement of hitting performance. It is a complement to the batting average, which is a simple ratio of base hits to at bats. Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources (extra base hits, walks, and net bases) to at bats. Always good to have a second opinion!
A late-inning pressure situation (LIPS) is a baseball statistic developed to determine if clutch hitters exist. We could use this to determine how often a home teams uses their last 3 bottom-half innings to turn the game around and win the game or push the total.
Speed Score determines a team's speed based on it's players. It includes five factors: stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base. Some feel that speed doesn't play a part in baseball but it most certainly does. It's always nice to bet on an athletic and speedy team, they're never out of it.
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) It's the frequency of which a batter reaches a base after putting the ball in the field of play. For pitchers (a measure of the hitters they face), it's a good measure of luck. So pitchers with high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances adjust to the mean.
Defensive efficiency (Def Eff) It's the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense. Can be approximated with (1 - BABIP).
Pythagorean expectation: It's a formula that resembles the mathematical Pythagorean theorem and is used to estimate how many games a baseball team should have won, based on how many runs a team scored and allowed. Comparing the two percentages can determine how lucky or clutch a team was.
Walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) It's the average number of walks and hits allowed by the pitcher per inning. (BB + H divided by IP).
Extrapolated runs (XR)E is similar to runs created, except it assigns a run value to each event, rather than a multiplicative formula.
Quality start (QS) A game in which a pitcher completes six innings, allowing no more than three runs. Good stat to record and keep track of.Lets try to develop a comprehensive formula using these and other sabermetrics so we can start tracking, baseball is weeks away and I want some winners!
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