My wagers are rated 1 through 7 units.
My standard wager is 5 units, a super play is 6, and an absolutely unreal play will be 7. There will occasionally be 1, 2, 3, or 4 unit plays.
The reason for that scale is that anyone can divide his preferred standard wager by 5 and then proportionately play a higher or lower rated play accordingly. For purposes of example, if a person has normal standard play of $100, his “unit” would be $20, justifying a 4 unit at $80, 6 unit at $120 or 7 unit at $140. These amounts are much more proportionately correct than simply playing 1 unit per game, then suddenly jumping to 2 or 3 units for special plays; as those would double or triple the normal risk. It is doubtful any play is worth double or triple the normal risk, and the win percentage must be very high or those plays are real bankroll eaters, not to mention the wild emotional swings encountered when playing far above one’s normal excitement level.
Please understand, these are flat play amounts
I do not “add the juice” to favorites or underplay the underdog
The unit play is based on my computed probability of a win versus the payoff on a given side or total, it has nothing to do with who the public favors, other than that they will set the number to play against.
Make no mistake about this either. The Return on Investment is critical regardless of what betting method you use, and it is the same regardless of what method you use. A -140 favorite pays 71.4 cents per dollar of risk, regardless of what you use as a “unit”. It requires a 58.33% probability of winning regardless of how much or how little you play just to be an even money proposition. That does not sound very high because you think when you wager your choice has a 99% probability, right? Face reality. Home teams win about 52% of all games in MLB and favorites, traditionally, about 57%, coming in very low last year at 55%. Your home favorite probably does not have the overwhelming advantage you think they do. Be careful.
I will not discuss whether or not to “add the juice”. You do as you wish, but understand this. I have done tremendous research regarding odds, probability and gambling, and to the best of my knowledge there has never been even one definitive, mathematical study produced that proved adding the juice or flat playing the dog, or short playing the dog, was advantageous to the bettor. NOT ONE. People play that way because the math is simple and that is what they were taught, usually by another loser or their bookie (why does he like it?).
To the best of my knowledge I am the only handicapper on Covers that tracks and posts Return on Investment (ROI). If your favored handicapper does not, you may want to do it yourself, as it can be a real eye opener. Example: Two guys post that they are 7-3 in MLB so far. Guys that wonder in from the football or basketball forums say “Wow, that’s impressive.” True, in foots and buckets where the lines are almost always at or very near -110 it is impressive, but; in baseball if one guy has an average lay-take of -140 his return on risk is only 20% while maybe the other guy has an average lay-take of -110 and his return on risk is 33.64% Both are 7-3, but who did the better job? BOL
Wrong: They beat the Rangers
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