I don't get this. Why don't you just pick a unit size as a standard, I use 3 units. If I play a ML at -140. I risk 4.2 to win 3. I win, I win 3, I lose I duduct 4.2. You track units and w/l. Units being the key. Not sure I get this ROI and what story it tells different then what I just explained. If I decide my unit win is 4, I lose. i deduct 5.6. what am I missing? alot of people do that, we just dont call anything roi.
corrected
Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV:
I don't get this. Why don't you just pick a unit size as a standard, I use 3 units. If I play a ML at -140. I risk 4.2 to win 3. I win, I win 3, I lose I duduct 4.2. You track units and w/l. Units being the key. Not sure I get this ROI and what story it tells different then what I just explained. If I decide my unit win is 4, I lose. i deduct 5.6. what am I missing? alot of people do that, we just dont call anything roi.
Louis_IV, what you are doing is correct and you are one of the better guys on Covers, as far as accuracy goes. BOL. Here is where ROI becomes important. A -140 favorite pays a profit of 71.43% of the investment. Always. A -110 favorite pays 90.91% of the investment. Always. So, handicapper A and B both state they are 7-3 and + 2.8 units it looks equal, but if A has an average lay-take of -140 and B has an average lay-take of -110, then A has an ROI of 20% while B has an average of 21.5%. If that still does nor look significant just look at how much we consider small differences in casino odds important. 1% difference at craps, blackjack or roulette will send a serious player running next door every time. We would never encourage a newbie to sign on with a 20 cent book when 10 cent books are available, or better yet Pinnacle, if you live offshore.
As I said at first, you and others like you are not the problem. You play within your means with only small increases or decreases from your standard play. The characters that need to be exposed are those that vary their unit play over a vast scale, like 1 to 15 "units" so they suddenly recoup losses with huge "unit" wins, even though no follower in his right mind is going to jump from a $100 play to a $1500 play. ROI will reveal deceptive practices like that, because it completely levels the playing field. ROI simply cannot lie or be manipulated.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV:
corrected
Louis_IV, what you are doing is correct and you are one of the better guys on Covers, as far as accuracy goes. BOL. Here is where ROI becomes important. A -140 favorite pays a profit of 71.43% of the investment. Always. A -110 favorite pays 90.91% of the investment. Always. So, handicapper A and B both state they are 7-3 and + 2.8 units it looks equal, but if A has an average lay-take of -140 and B has an average lay-take of -110, then A has an ROI of 20% while B has an average of 21.5%. If that still does nor look significant just look at how much we consider small differences in casino odds important. 1% difference at craps, blackjack or roulette will send a serious player running next door every time. We would never encourage a newbie to sign on with a 20 cent book when 10 cent books are available, or better yet Pinnacle, if you live offshore.
As I said at first, you and others like you are not the problem. You play within your means with only small increases or decreases from your standard play. The characters that need to be exposed are those that vary their unit play over a vast scale, like 1 to 15 "units" so they suddenly recoup losses with huge "unit" wins, even though no follower in his right mind is going to jump from a $100 play to a $1500 play. ROI will reveal deceptive practices like that, because it completely levels the playing field. ROI simply cannot lie or be manipulated.
KEY I get it now, when i read the posts earlier i thought you were picking at straws but that 1.5% return on investment between A and B is huge, the House Edge in blackjack i think is 0.28%-1.15% depending on the difference between games and that can result in someone losing their shirt or cleaning house. It sounds like basic mathematics if i'm understanding it correctly. So those goons on this site who say *15 UNIT BOMB* on a game (presuming they win) aren't actually winning 15 units like their record would state, its actually more like 12 or 13 right? Return on Investment is business thinking which is why people like yourself profit.
KEY I get it now, when i read the posts earlier i thought you were picking at straws but that 1.5% return on investment between A and B is huge, the House Edge in blackjack i think is 0.28%-1.15% depending on the difference between games and that can result in someone losing their shirt or cleaning house. It sounds like basic mathematics if i'm understanding it correctly. So those goons on this site who say *15 UNIT BOMB* on a game (presuming they win) aren't actually winning 15 units like their record would state, its actually more like 12 or 13 right? Return on Investment is business thinking which is why people like yourself profit.
KEY I get it now, when i read the posts earlier i thought you were picking at straws but that 1.5% return on investment between A and B is huge, the House Edge in blackjack i think is 0.28%-1.15% depending on the difference between games and that can result in someone losing their shirt or cleaning house. It sounds like basic mathematics if i'm understanding it correctly. So those goons on this site who say *15 UNIT BOMB* on a game (presuming they win) aren't actually winning 15 units like their record would state, its actually more like 12 or 13 right? Return on Investment is business thinking which is why people like yourself profit.
Jason, that's just about right on the money. Too many folks on Covers (and Louis is NOT one of them) cannot make the relationships between odds-probability-potential profit-and risk/reward. Some folks can have a winning record and actually lose money. It is not that they are not picking winners, but are playing the over valued ones. Everything makes a difference, and the best expression I ever heard to explain it is "Bad money management has destroyed more sports gamblers than bad picks ever did". I think that is true because if a guy is a bad picker he quickly becomes aware of it, whereas if his money management is bad he may go on a long time without ever realizing why his winners are winning games, but not money. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Quote Originally Posted by JasonBravo:
KEY I get it now, when i read the posts earlier i thought you were picking at straws but that 1.5% return on investment between A and B is huge, the House Edge in blackjack i think is 0.28%-1.15% depending on the difference between games and that can result in someone losing their shirt or cleaning house. It sounds like basic mathematics if i'm understanding it correctly. So those goons on this site who say *15 UNIT BOMB* on a game (presuming they win) aren't actually winning 15 units like their record would state, its actually more like 12 or 13 right? Return on Investment is business thinking which is why people like yourself profit.
Jason, that's just about right on the money. Too many folks on Covers (and Louis is NOT one of them) cannot make the relationships between odds-probability-potential profit-and risk/reward. Some folks can have a winning record and actually lose money. It is not that they are not picking winners, but are playing the over valued ones. Everything makes a difference, and the best expression I ever heard to explain it is "Bad money management has destroyed more sports gamblers than bad picks ever did". I think that is true because if a guy is a bad picker he quickly becomes aware of it, whereas if his money management is bad he may go on a long time without ever realizing why his winners are winning games, but not money. BOL
Jason, that's just about right on the money. Too many folks on Covers (and Louis is NOT one of them) cannot make the relationships between odds-probability-potential profit-and risk/reward. Some folks can have a winning record and actually lose money. It is not that they are not picking winners, but are playing the over valued ones. Everything makes a difference, and the best expression I ever heard to explain it is "Bad money management has destroyed more sports gamblers than bad picks ever did". I think that is true because if a guy is a bad picker he quickly becomes aware of it, whereas if his money management is bad he may go on a long time without ever realizing why his winners are winning games, but not money. BOL
Bang on smart guy . Good luck in baseball today, sent you a friend request. I'm pulling the trigger on the Mets over the Tigers
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Jason, that's just about right on the money. Too many folks on Covers (and Louis is NOT one of them) cannot make the relationships between odds-probability-potential profit-and risk/reward. Some folks can have a winning record and actually lose money. It is not that they are not picking winners, but are playing the over valued ones. Everything makes a difference, and the best expression I ever heard to explain it is "Bad money management has destroyed more sports gamblers than bad picks ever did". I think that is true because if a guy is a bad picker he quickly becomes aware of it, whereas if his money management is bad he may go on a long time without ever realizing why his winners are winning games, but not money. BOL
Bang on smart guy . Good luck in baseball today, sent you a friend request. I'm pulling the trigger on the Mets over the Tigers
P.S- i still will be afraid to go against him as soon as regular season rolls around.
That is what bothers me. Verlander is such a horse when he gets on a roll he might just decide to keep rolling, spring training or not, lol, not a problem today though.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Quote Originally Posted by JasonBravo:
P.S- i still will be afraid to go against him as soon as regular season rolls around.
That is what bothers me. Verlander is such a horse when he gets on a roll he might just decide to keep rolling, spring training or not, lol, not a problem today though.
Louis_IV, what you are doing is correct and you are one of the better guys on Covers, as far as accuracy goes. BOL. Here is where ROI becomes important. A -140 favorite pays a profit of 71.43% of the investment. Always. A -110 favorite pays 90.91% of the investment. Always. So, handicapper A and B both state they are 7-3 and + 2.8 units it looks equal, but if A has an average lay-take of -140 and B has an average lay-take of -110, then A has an ROI of 20% while B has an average of 21.5%. If that still does nor look significant just look at how much we consider small differences in casino odds important. 1% difference at craps, blackjack or roulette will send a serious player running next door every time. We would never encourage a newbie to sign on with a 20 cent book when 10 cent books are available, or better yet Pinnacle, if you live offshore.
As I said at first, you and others like you are not the problem. You play within your means with only small increases or decreases from your standard play. The characters that need to be exposed are those that vary their unit play over a vast scale, like 1 to 15 "units" so they suddenly recoup losses with huge "unit" wins, even though no follower in his right mind is going to jump from a $100 play to a $1500 play. ROI will reveal deceptive practices like that, because it completely levels the playing field. ROI simply cannot lie or be manipulated.
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Louis_IV, what you are doing is correct and you are one of the better guys on Covers, as far as accuracy goes. BOL. Here is where ROI becomes important. A -140 favorite pays a profit of 71.43% of the investment. Always. A -110 favorite pays 90.91% of the investment. Always. So, handicapper A and B both state they are 7-3 and + 2.8 units it looks equal, but if A has an average lay-take of -140 and B has an average lay-take of -110, then A has an ROI of 20% while B has an average of 21.5%. If that still does nor look significant just look at how much we consider small differences in casino odds important. 1% difference at craps, blackjack or roulette will send a serious player running next door every time. We would never encourage a newbie to sign on with a 20 cent book when 10 cent books are available, or better yet Pinnacle, if you live offshore.
As I said at first, you and others like you are not the problem. You play within your means with only small increases or decreases from your standard play. The characters that need to be exposed are those that vary their unit play over a vast scale, like 1 to 15 "units" so they suddenly recoup losses with huge "unit" wins, even though no follower in his right mind is going to jump from a $100 play to a $1500 play. ROI will reveal deceptive practices like that, because it completely levels the playing field. ROI simply cannot lie or be manipulated.
J pero,if you think he is a fraud, why chase him? Makes you look idiotic
Its a character flaw. Why follow a hypocrit or trust someone who talks out both sides of his mouth?
One who claims to look at advanced stats and make decisions that way yet didnt delve too deep into the Orioles and difference between 1st half vs 2nd half or when the 1 run and extra inning games took place...
If he is that naive then everything he is touting is complete BS. Many people wont delve through many of his posts and threads to see that he is a hypocrite and that character flaw might in turn lead to him fudging his record or ROI so look all so powerful to the covers baseball community.
ROI is a good way to look at things, especially baseball and hockey.
Just lettingn the covers world know he is jekyll and hyde. Dont trust him as far as you can throw him.
Quote Originally Posted by bullmoose:
J pero,if you think he is a fraud, why chase him? Makes you look idiotic
Its a character flaw. Why follow a hypocrit or trust someone who talks out both sides of his mouth?
One who claims to look at advanced stats and make decisions that way yet didnt delve too deep into the Orioles and difference between 1st half vs 2nd half or when the 1 run and extra inning games took place...
If he is that naive then everything he is touting is complete BS. Many people wont delve through many of his posts and threads to see that he is a hypocrite and that character flaw might in turn lead to him fudging his record or ROI so look all so powerful to the covers baseball community.
ROI is a good way to look at things, especially baseball and hockey.
Just lettingn the covers world know he is jekyll and hyde. Dont trust him as far as you can throw him.
Louis_IV, what you are doing is correct and you are one of the better guys on Covers, as far as accuracy goes. BOL. Here is where ROI becomes important. A -140 favorite pays a profit of 71.43% of the investment. Always. A -110 favorite pays 90.91% of the investment. Always. So, handicapper A and B both state they are 7-3 and + 2.8 units it looks equal, but if A has an average lay-take of -140 and B has an average lay-take of -110, then A has an ROI of 20% while B has an average of 21.5%. If that still does nor look significant just look at how much we consider small differences in casino odds important. 1% difference at craps, blackjack or roulette will send a serious player running next door every time. We would never encourage a newbie to sign on with a 20 cent book when 10 cent books are available, or better yet Pinnacle, if you live offshore.
As I said at first, you and others like you are not the problem. You play within your means with only small increases or decreases from your standard play. The characters that need to be exposed are those that vary their unit play over a vast scale, like 1 to 15 "units" so they suddenly recoup losses with huge "unit" wins, even though no follower in his right mind is going to jump from a $100 play to a $1500 play. ROI will reveal deceptive practices like that, because it completely levels the playing field. ROI simply cannot lie or be manipulated.
Please do net EVER EVER EVER put craps and roulette in the same sentence as blackjack when comparing odds and a 1% change.
Blackjack is the only game in the casino, outside of poker, that you can make money and play at an advantage against the house. Craps and roulette has fixed odds that doenst change as blackjack odds change with every single card removed from the deck or penetration, decks used, or other various rules
Horrible analogy.
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Louis_IV, what you are doing is correct and you are one of the better guys on Covers, as far as accuracy goes. BOL. Here is where ROI becomes important. A -140 favorite pays a profit of 71.43% of the investment. Always. A -110 favorite pays 90.91% of the investment. Always. So, handicapper A and B both state they are 7-3 and + 2.8 units it looks equal, but if A has an average lay-take of -140 and B has an average lay-take of -110, then A has an ROI of 20% while B has an average of 21.5%. If that still does nor look significant just look at how much we consider small differences in casino odds important. 1% difference at craps, blackjack or roulette will send a serious player running next door every time. We would never encourage a newbie to sign on with a 20 cent book when 10 cent books are available, or better yet Pinnacle, if you live offshore.
As I said at first, you and others like you are not the problem. You play within your means with only small increases or decreases from your standard play. The characters that need to be exposed are those that vary their unit play over a vast scale, like 1 to 15 "units" so they suddenly recoup losses with huge "unit" wins, even though no follower in his right mind is going to jump from a $100 play to a $1500 play. ROI will reveal deceptive practices like that, because it completely levels the playing field. ROI simply cannot lie or be manipulated.
Please do net EVER EVER EVER put craps and roulette in the same sentence as blackjack when comparing odds and a 1% change.
Blackjack is the only game in the casino, outside of poker, that you can make money and play at an advantage against the house. Craps and roulette has fixed odds that doenst change as blackjack odds change with every single card removed from the deck or penetration, decks used, or other various rules
Its a character flaw. Why follow a hypocrit or trust someone who talks out both sides of his mouth?
One who claims to look at advanced stats and make decisions that way yet didnt delve too deep into the Orioles and difference between 1st half vs 2nd half or when the 1 run and extra inning games took place...
If he is that naive then everything he is touting is complete BS. Many people wont delve through many of his posts and threads to see that he is a hypocrite and that character flaw might in turn lead to him fudging his record or ROI so look all so powerful to the covers baseball community.
ROI is a good way to look at things, especially baseball and hockey.
Just lettingn the covers world know he is jekyll and hyde. Dont trust him as far as you can throw him.
Is that an accusation, or just more of your worthless drivel?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Quote Originally Posted by jpero:
Its a character flaw. Why follow a hypocrit or trust someone who talks out both sides of his mouth?
One who claims to look at advanced stats and make decisions that way yet didnt delve too deep into the Orioles and difference between 1st half vs 2nd half or when the 1 run and extra inning games took place...
If he is that naive then everything he is touting is complete BS. Many people wont delve through many of his posts and threads to see that he is a hypocrite and that character flaw might in turn lead to him fudging his record or ROI so look all so powerful to the covers baseball community.
ROI is a good way to look at things, especially baseball and hockey.
Just lettingn the covers world know he is jekyll and hyde. Dont trust him as far as you can throw him.
Is that an accusation, or just more of your worthless drivel?
Please do net EVER EVER EVER put craps and roulette in the same sentence as blackjack when comparing odds and a 1% change.
Blackjack is the only game in the casino, outside of poker, that you can make money and play at an advantage against the house. Craps and roulette has fixed odds that doenst change as blackjack odds change with every single card removed from the deck or penetration, decks used, or other various rules
Horrible analogy.
Might as well (calmly) address that one too. I doubt you have ever visited Las Vegas but even the basic odds on blackjack do not remain static at all houses. When I lived there The Las Vegas Club, downtown, offered double down on any two cards, double down after a split, unlimited splits, and surrender. All of those are advantageous to the player. Blackjack odds often do favor the player, but that is only for experienced player or card counter. The average tourist does not have those advantages and playing the basic strategy only cuts his disadvantage, but he is usually unaware when the odds have swung greatly for or against him.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Quote Originally Posted by jpero:
Please do net EVER EVER EVER put craps and roulette in the same sentence as blackjack when comparing odds and a 1% change.
Blackjack is the only game in the casino, outside of poker, that you can make money and play at an advantage against the house. Craps and roulette has fixed odds that doenst change as blackjack odds change with every single card removed from the deck or penetration, decks used, or other various rules
Horrible analogy.
Might as well (calmly) address that one too. I doubt you have ever visited Las Vegas but even the basic odds on blackjack do not remain static at all houses. When I lived there The Las Vegas Club, downtown, offered double down on any two cards, double down after a split, unlimited splits, and surrender. All of those are advantageous to the player. Blackjack odds often do favor the player, but that is only for experienced player or card counter. The average tourist does not have those advantages and playing the basic strategy only cuts his disadvantage, but he is usually unaware when the odds have swung greatly for or against him.
Its a character flaw. Why follow a hypocrit or trust someone who talks out both sides of his mouth?
One who claims to look at advanced stats and make decisions that way yet didnt delve too deep into the Orioles and difference between 1st half vs 2nd half or when the 1 run and extra inning games took place...
If he is that naive then everything he is touting is complete BS. Many people wont delve through many of his posts and threads to see that he is a hypocrite and that character flaw might in turn lead to him fudging his record or ROI so look all so powerful to the covers baseball community.
ROI is a good way to look at things, especially baseball and hockey.
Just lettingn the covers world know he is jekyll and hyde. Dont trust him as far as you can throw him.
You keep mentioning this Orioles example and you have the Oriole bird in your profile pic, so don't you think you should give us another example, it sounds just a little bias on your part. Stop picking at people's mistakes and talk sh*t about sports man!. Besides there's plenty of other fraud's on this site that you can pick to the bone.
Quote Originally Posted by jpero:
Its a character flaw. Why follow a hypocrit or trust someone who talks out both sides of his mouth?
One who claims to look at advanced stats and make decisions that way yet didnt delve too deep into the Orioles and difference between 1st half vs 2nd half or when the 1 run and extra inning games took place...
If he is that naive then everything he is touting is complete BS. Many people wont delve through many of his posts and threads to see that he is a hypocrite and that character flaw might in turn lead to him fudging his record or ROI so look all so powerful to the covers baseball community.
ROI is a good way to look at things, especially baseball and hockey.
Just lettingn the covers world know he is jekyll and hyde. Dont trust him as far as you can throw him.
You keep mentioning this Orioles example and you have the Oriole bird in your profile pic, so don't you think you should give us another example, it sounds just a little bias on your part. Stop picking at people's mistakes and talk sh*t about sports man!. Besides there's plenty of other fraud's on this site that you can pick to the bone.
You keep mentioning this Orioles example and you have the Oriole bird in your profile pic, so don't you think you should give us another example, it sounds just a little bias on your part. Stop picking at people's mistakes and talk sh*t about sports man!. Besides there's plenty of other fraud's on this site that you can pick to the bone.
Uh, I kinda wish you had phrased that differently, unless you believe it.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Quote Originally Posted by JasonBravo:
You keep mentioning this Orioles example and you have the Oriole bird in your profile pic, so don't you think you should give us another example, it sounds just a little bias on your part. Stop picking at people's mistakes and talk sh*t about sports man!. Besides there's plenty of other fraud's on this site that you can pick to the bone.
Uh, I kinda wish you had phrased that differently, unless you believe it.
Uh, I kinda wish you had phrased that differently, unless you believe it.
It's obviously something that happened(or didnt) between you two in the past, obviously i never saw it.. Personally i love how you keep track of your record so naturally i lean towards you not making a mistake on the "orioles 1st half blahblah". You can't argue there are some fools on this site though, however i don't believe you are one
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Uh, I kinda wish you had phrased that differently, unless you believe it.
It's obviously something that happened(or didnt) between you two in the past, obviously i never saw it.. Personally i love how you keep track of your record so naturally i lean towards you not making a mistake on the "orioles 1st half blahblah". You can't argue there are some fools on this site though, however i don't believe you are one
Guys don't let the BS in this thread muddy the waters about the idea that is being presented. If you want to lose your azz be a cool guy and go for huge unit plays. If you want to have a decent chance to break even or win some cash pay attention. Look through the forums and you'll see a ton of people with join dates in 2012 and 2013. Why is this? It's because they don't have a clue about what they are doing and get roasted. or...they get turned off some BS about blowing every player on the O's
Key thanks for the information, looking forward to the season.
Guys don't let the BS in this thread muddy the waters about the idea that is being presented. If you want to lose your azz be a cool guy and go for huge unit plays. If you want to have a decent chance to break even or win some cash pay attention. Look through the forums and you'll see a ton of people with join dates in 2012 and 2013. Why is this? It's because they don't have a clue about what they are doing and get roasted. or...they get turned off some BS about blowing every player on the O's
Key thanks for the information, looking forward to the season.
All you have to do is look at how low the top team winning percentages (and bottom team winning percentages also) are in baseball vs bball or fball to know that the way you or guys like Louis figure it is the right way.
All you have to do is look at how low the top team winning percentages (and bottom team winning percentages also) are in baseball vs bball or fball to know that the way you or guys like Louis figure it is the right way.
I meant to say how low the winning percentages are for top teams and how high the winning percentages are for losing teams in baseball vs bball and fball.
I meant to say how low the winning percentages are for top teams and how high the winning percentages are for losing teams in baseball vs bball and fball.
KeyElement I would like to pick your brain on a few questions if you don't mind. First off, I really enjoyed reading your initial post, it was insightful and made sense. So a couple questions...
- I understand the basic wager is a 5 unit standard bet. Why the sliding scale from 1 unit to a maximum of 7 units? I guess to be specific, why are most bets 5 units, and the maximum you can go upwards 2, while the most you can go down is 4 to 1 unit (or 0/passing a bet if you look at it like that)? I am trying to get a better feel for why you set up your scale in this way.
- Without going too much into your handicapping, (I'm not asking for you to give away your secrets) how do you personally go about declaring a wager less or more than the standard 5 units? What makes a 6 unit wager better than a 5 unit wager, but not quite a 7 unit wager? What makes a game worth a 2 unit wager for instance, but not a 3 unit wager? Why would you put a minimal 1 unit wager on a game instead of just pass on it?
Thanks in advance and BOL today.
KeyElement I would like to pick your brain on a few questions if you don't mind. First off, I really enjoyed reading your initial post, it was insightful and made sense. So a couple questions...
- I understand the basic wager is a 5 unit standard bet. Why the sliding scale from 1 unit to a maximum of 7 units? I guess to be specific, why are most bets 5 units, and the maximum you can go upwards 2, while the most you can go down is 4 to 1 unit (or 0/passing a bet if you look at it like that)? I am trying to get a better feel for why you set up your scale in this way.
- Without going too much into your handicapping, (I'm not asking for you to give away your secrets) how do you personally go about declaring a wager less or more than the standard 5 units? What makes a 6 unit wager better than a 5 unit wager, but not quite a 7 unit wager? What makes a game worth a 2 unit wager for instance, but not a 3 unit wager? Why would you put a minimal 1 unit wager on a game instead of just pass on it?
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