Posted:
#1
Hey everyone ...
I am going to start this thread pretty much the same way I began last week's thread ,
and that is with the Monday nighter featuring the
Over/Under trend on MNF
One of the most remarkable trends throughtout the 2008-2009 regular season appeared on Monday night games ...
Overs began the year on an 8-0-1 tear and finished strong going
11-3-2 for the year on the high side .
In week 1 last year , Minnesota visited Green Bay , while Denver visited Oakland .
With 20 points scored in the fourth quarter in the first game , and
28 points scored in the fourth quarter of the second game , the year began with the overs going 2-0 .
This barrage of 4th Qtr points was the catalyst and it set the stage for the remainder of the year as the trend only picked up ore steam .
Fast forward to this year ...
In week 1 , two games were played on monday night , both of which sailed over the total with 49 combined points between Buffalo & New England .
Meanwhile , San Diego & Oakland combined for 44 of their own .
What got them there was the 4th quarter activity .
22 points & 24 points were scored in the fourth quarter alone on those games .
Last week ( week 2 ) , Indianapolis & Miami squared off with the total set at 41 .
They combined for 50 points . What got them there ?
You guessed it .
The fourth quarter provided most of the firepower .
Nearly half the points ( 24 points ) came out of that last quarter .
Here are the 4th quarter scores for the MNF games for 2008-2009 :
20, 28,17, 25 , 20,15 ,14 ,24 ,7, 9 , 27,14 , 28 , 27,17,10
16 games , 16 fourth quarters , 302 points scored ,
for an average of 18.87 points .
So, not only did this year began where last one finished , but it's surpassing it .
As a comparison , 15 games were already played on sunday for week 3 and the 4th qtr scoring follows :
3,10 , 7,13 14 ,10,14 ,7,13 ,17,14 ,3 ,20 ,14 , 3 combining for
162 points and an average of 10.8 points .
Including the first 3 games , and all of last year ...that's 19 total games , 372 points have been scored in the last quarter of play .
So teams are averaging a whooping 19.58 points per game in the 4th quarter alone !
The over is 3-0 overall on MNF this year ,
and on a 14-3-2 run ( 82 % ) since the start of last year .
All of this , again driven by the relentless push to the endzone on the final quarter of play .
Week 3 : Carolina & Dallas
Over/Under 48/48.5
Note : The line has been driven from as low as 45 and climbed as high as 48.5 , now settling in the 47-48.5 range .
During this 19 game stretch where the over is on a 14-3-2 run , the final score twice finished at 49 , including week 1 between buffalo and New England this year , once finished at 48 , and once finished at 47 .
That 47 was in week 13 last year , where the set line as shown on covers ended at 48.5 .
This marked one of the only 3 unders during this run .
Over and out .
*************************************************
0
Hot Forum Topics
