Trends & Things week 4 NFL + MNF week 3

"I looked around the point-spread landscape Thursday and saw something interesting: Six of the 14 games this weekend have lines of a touchdown or better.
Holy overinflation, Bet Man!
So, I called Jimmy Vaccaro, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who now runs Lucky's, and asked him for an explanation. "It's the fourth week of the season and the favorites have been winning a lot, more than we would like," Jimmy told me. "We're thinking that there is maybe a little less parity than before. And we are also stretching the favorites to see how far people will go. Until the upsets start happening, you are going to see overinflated lines."
Once again, Jimmy made a great point about how point spreads are created, one that is often lost on the public: Bookmakers don't care who wins and have no interest in picking a number that settles close to the score. They only want to put up a line that makes you bet. And right now you are betting favorites in a big way. So Jimmy and the rest of the bookmakers are going to make you pay a premium for the pleasure. "Take a look at the San Francisco-St. Louis game," Jimmy said. "The Niners are still laying 10, even without Frank Gore. Which means if you really want the favorites, you are going to have to lay the wood."
And yes, "lay the wood" will become a regular part of the blog vernacular.
But it's not just big favorites whose lines have been getting attention this week. Anyone remember last year's Steelers-Chargers game and the no-touchdown that only mattered to those praying for a Steelers cover? If not, here's the column I wrote about it. There's a rematch on Sunday. And that line has had some of the most interesting moves. Here's a look at that one and four others, with some breakdowns from Jimmy.
To see the biggest point-spread-moving games for this week, you must be an ESPN Insider.

Matchup: San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line moves: Steelers opened at minus-4, moved straight to 6.5
What that means: Sometimes one bet from the right sharp bettor will move a game. That's what happened here, as bookmakers hedged against a run on the four.
Vaccaro says: "That four was because the Chargers are traveling across the country, the Steelers just lost and San Diego just won. Honestly, this game would have opened at 5.5 if the Steelers hadn't blown it last week. Now you are seeing Mike Tomlin saying he doesn't want to talk to anyone and he is pissed, and that is why someone would jump on the four. Now that it is at 6.5 we aren't seeing more than $500 difference between the two sides. But if this game flashes Chargers plus-7, you'll see some San Diego bets."

Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Line moves: From pick 'em to Titans minus-3
What that means: Bookmakers put up a number that reflects the public's current perception. Wise guys bet the team they had ranked higher in preseason power ratings.
Vaccaro says: "What happened here is bookmakers were not taking their full limits when this line opened because they were waiting to see which way the bets came in and how the line settled. Maybe the first bookmakers to post on Sunday night or Monday morning took seven or eight $500 bets on the Titans and immediately moved it. People are thinking that even the 0-3 Titans are not so bad and still fundamentally sound, so there is good value, especially against a team no one thinks is very good, despite their record. A month and a half ago, this game would have been Tennessee minus-4.5. Wise guys are still betting on paper from the beginning of the year."

Matchup: New York Jets at New Orleans Saints
Line moves: Saints opened as 4.5-point favorites, currently 7-point faves
What that means: Defense may win championships, but bettors believe offense win bets.
Vaccaro says: "This one is a little tricky. Both teams have been better than advertised and money has shown for each of them in the first three weeks. Their first six games combined have hurt bookmakers as much as any teams so far. New Orleans, especially, has had nothing but money. The public is in love with this team. You will get some Jets money for sure, but really there is a little more sentiment with the Saints. The offense is the key here: You are more likely to move it up if money comes in on the Saints than down if money comes in on the Jets."

Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Line moves: Bengals opened minus-3.5, currently minus-5.5
What that means: Bengals opened low because of the Browns' homefield advantage. But money on Cincy immediately changed bookmakers' strategy.
Vaccaro says: "I guarantee not one book took its maximum bet on the Bengals minus-3.5. They just wanted to get a sense of which direction to go with that line. What we're doing a lot more this year is situational bookmaking. We examine how the public feels about a team in its current situation instead of just thinking about a cold number that will make people bet. People think the Browns and Bucs and Raiders are really bad. And that is making us put up bigger numbers than normal because we know no one will bet those teams. We won't stop doing this until Cleveland or those other teams starts winning."

Matchup: New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Line moves: Giants opened at minus-10, currently minus-8
What that means: Wise guys are playing this one in the traditional way, going with home dogs getting lots of points.
Vaccaro says: "We're still picking off high numbers because of how this season has gone. Favorites keep winning. But wise guys aren't buying it, and that is how the line moved. I think about $75,000 came into three different sports books on the Chiefs early in the week and knocked that line down. All the public money will be on the Giants, but they are playing their third road game in a row, and this one is at Arrowhead. The Chiefs may stink, but that is still a tough place to play."