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Hey eveyone ...
Tomorrow , Thursday September 10 2009 is the first game of the 2009-2010 NFL regular season
I wish you all the very best of luck throughout the season ...
During this preseason there were 6 teams that had a perfect record
( A high number )
3 of these teams went a perfect 4-0 , while 3 others went a perfect 0-4
4-0 teams : Miami , Baltimore , Seattle
0-4 teams : Kansas City, Arizona , Carolina
Detroit had the distinction of following up a perfect preseason record during 2008 with a perfect record of futility going 0-16 during the regular season .
Detroit started the regular season by losing @ Atlanta 21-34 . Somehow, the oddsmakers made Detroit a 3.5 favorite on the road that day .
Detroit would never again find themselves as favorites in any contest for the remainder of the year.
On the other hand , New England and Cleveland ( 0-4 teams ) both failed to cover the spread in week 1
Clearly , preseason records do not indictate much in terms of success or failure for the regular season .
But, does preseason record present the savvy bettor with an opportunity to find a soft line ?
Perhaps , an overrated or an underrated team lies in the mix .
After all , Detroit had finished the 2007-2008 regular season campaign floundering by losing 7 of their last 8 games and failing to cover the spread in any of their losses .
Naturally, there are plenty of other factors that affected that spread such as Atlanta's quarterback turmoil with the hangover stemming from the loss of michael Vick , installing a rookie quarterback , having lost 6 out of the last 7 games at the end of the prior season , and so on .
But, had Detroit gone 0-4 during the preseason instead of 4-0 , the perception would have certainly been different and so would have been the spread .
Looking back at teams that have been perfect one way or another during preseason since 2003 , the one stat that stands out surrounds the teams that have had a stellar preseason campaign .
There have been 10 teams in the last 6 years that have gone 4-0 during preseason , including Detroit last year .
How, have these teams responded at the onset of the regular season , namely week 1 ?
The record for these " perfect " teams is a disappointing 3-7 SU , and an even more disappointing 2-8 ATS
Some of the teams on this list were no pushovers either :
New York Giants , Carolina, New England all followed up their perfect preseason campaigns by dropping their first regular season game and losing ATS .
This year , we have the following :
Miami ( 4-0 ) + 4 @ Atlanta
Baltimore ( 4-0 ) - 13 vs Kansas City
Seattle ( 4-0 ) - 8.5 vs Atlanta
If this trend continues look for 2 of these 3 teams to not cover the spread ...
But, at the very least make sure you don't back them if the line seems inflated due in part to the perception that these teams' preseason campaigns will result in strong first games .
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