A monday night showdown with a Double Digit Dog ...
The overall NFL numbers definitely favor these home underdogs , specially under the bright lights .
I decided to take a look at The Raiders performance in the confines of their own house to see just what kind of team they have been in the last 5 years .
We already know San Diego has dominated Oakland winning 11 straight games against them , meanwhile covering the spread 10 of those times . ( 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS )
When SD played Oakland on the road , they beat them by 10, 13, 27, 13, 6 ( 11.8 PPG differential in their last 5 victories )
With the spread climbing up and available in the range between 9.5 and 11.5 , we see that Oakland would have covered the spread twice at a spread higher than 10 out of those 5 times ...
Looking back at Oakland's home record for the last 5 years , this is what I found :
Oakland Raiders played 40 games @ home last 5 years ( 5x8)
Oak is 11-29 SU @ home ( 27.5 % )
Oak is 11-29 ATS @ home ( 27.5 % )
In those 29 losses, Oakland was favored 9 x
20 x it was the underdog
Oakland is 2-18 ATS ( 11.1 % ) as HD when losing SU
Oakland is 0-9 ATS as HF when losing SU ...obviously
Oakland won 11 games @ home ( 5x as dogs & 6X as favs )
Oakland is 4-2 ATS as HF
Oakland is 5-0 ATS as HD , obviously
It is important to note that the Raiders haven't found themseves as DD Home Dogs that often .
In fact , only once going with covers lines ...against Carolina last year .
The final score was Carolina 17-6 ( - 10 )
Other high spreads were vs San Diego last year , final score was San Diego 28-18 ( -9 )
Year prior , San diego again was favored by 9 , and won 30-17 winning by 13
That same year , Oakland did manage to cover the spread vs Indianapolis when they lost to Indi 14-21 ( - 9.5 )
In 2006-2007 Oakland was twice an underdog of 9 points , once losing to Denver 13-17 and covering the spread , and another time actually beating Pittsburgh 20-13
In 2005-2006 , Oakland had the highest spread at + 7.5 , losing to the NY Giants 21-30
In 2004-2005 , Oakland was never a HD of more than 4.5 points .
So, we are entering uncharted territory here as far as the spread goes ...so caution as the value is diminishing ...
That being said , Oakland has still only managed to cover the spread 11 times out of 40
Oakland has a dismal record of 2-18 ATS as HD's when losing SU and no other team may match that .
In fact , Detroit Lions #'s look great in comparison.
During this same span of 5 years played 40 home games and managed to better the Raiders by going 16-23-1 ATS
When the Detroit Lions were Home Dogs , their record has been
9-15 ATS
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