MLB - Monday 5/11

I told you last week that the public really wasn't betting much baseball so far this season. After that article went up, I read a report that said baseball betting was down in Nevada from last year about 900%!

Not 10%, or 30%. But, 900%! Only math guys could come up with a number like that. Nine times more than everything!

However you slice it, public betting on major league baseball so far this season is almost non-existent. As I said the other day, it's only sharps betting...which means the legal baseball betting market is a battle between oddsmakers and the sharps.

You longtime readers know that this is going to have a significant impact on how lines are made, in this sport anyway. I've told you time and time again that the single most important element of making a line is finding away to make the public take the worst of it. You want them betting on the teams they want at bad numbers. So, not only does the sportsbooks get the benefit of the 11/10 vigorish (the extra you have to pay on lost bets), but they're going to have a winning percentage on the propositions because the public is taking teams that are only going to cover about 49% of the time.

*You know the public is going to bet on favorites, particularly marquee favorites.
*You know the 'right' line in a game should be about 7 points.
*You put up an 8 or a 9 so the public takes their team at a bad number.

Simple formula in football and basketball. Works great. Has for years. Sure, the sharps step in and take some of the profit. But, sportsbooks are okay with that because it decreases exposure during favorite hot streaks. The sportsbooks and sharps grind out a profit at the expense of squares.

In baseball you just use moneylines instead of points.

*You know the public is going to bet on favorites, particularly the big market teams and the hottest starting pitchers (and...especially the Chicago Cubs who are the unofficial home team in Las Vegas...the slow start for the Cubs is probably part of the reason baseball betting is down by the way).

*You know the 'right' line in a game should be -140, or maybe -170 when the best starting pitchers are on the mound.

*You put up a number 30-40 cents higher than that in the middle ranges, and well into the -200's with the big market teams and their best pitchers.

Simple formula. But, it only works great when the public is betting!

Without the public in the mix right now, oddsmakers have to develop a new strategy for posting numbers. Sharps will pick the classic approach apart (as they've been doing throughout 2009 thanks to the sluggish starts from teams like the Yankees, Cubs, Mets, and Angels). Oddsmakers are on the defensive, and have to ask themselves these questions.

*Is there a way to get sharps to bet at bad numbers, or do they have to try and break even on won-loss record and let the vigorish take care of itself.

*Are they even good enough to break even against the sharps when the sharps have so many information resources at their disposal?

*Should they consider lowering limits on baseball to reduce exposure? Or, do the sharps that bet baseball lose enough at the table games (blackjack and roulette) to make staying open at normal limits worthwhile? Most sharps avoid the table games unless they're card counters. But, one reckless whale can make up for that.

*Should they just stay open and live with a summer loss because closing up shop would be a public relations nightmare for both reputation and employee relations?

It's going to be an interesting summer in Las Vegas and Reno, needless to say.

Here are the keys oddsmakers must follow in this current environment. If the public starts betting baseball again when the pennant races heat up, or when the economy bounces back (as its starting to do already in many places thank goodness), then oddsmakers can go back to charging the public for bad betting strategies. Right now:

*Oddsmakers have to stop inflating the lines on public teams. They've done this to a large degree already...but there's a decades old habit of adding at least 20-30 cents to New York Yankees lines (sometimes more) that hasn't gone away yet. The Yankees are down about 8-9 betting units so far this season...which is basically profit going into sharps pockets because they know value when they see it. There used to be 7-8 teams who might have inflated lines...and maybe 15 frontline pitchers who were regularly overpriced. The right numbers have to go on the board.

*Oddsmakers have to really get to know the strengths and weaknesses of the teams. This can be more difficult than it seems because there are so many teams, so many rotation pitchers (at least 150 with five-man rotations on 30 different squads), and so many variables that influence baseball performance. The consulting firm that sends out analysis to sportsbooks is even having trouble with this basic fundamental. Their early season rankings were way off on several teams. Personally, I watch a lot of games and study as hard as I can. EVERYBODY is going to have to do that now.

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*Oddsmakers are going to have to treat the sharps like their squares in terms of studying the betting tendencies. If the sharps like betting certain totals in certain stadiums, the line will need to anticipate that rather than react to it. If the sharps like betting certain umpires to go Over or Under, the line needs to see that coming a day or two in advance once the rotations are set. If the sharps jump on a team's bandwagon (like when Colorado got hot late in the season two years ago), oddsmakers need to treat that squad like a public team and squeeze out the value.

To the degree that baseball is being bet right now, it's a war between oddsmakers and sharps. Oddsmakers need to treat it that way and bring their very best efforts. They're still at a disadvantage because they have to put up a side and total in every game. Sharps can pick their spots, and only invest when they believe they have an edge.

To me, it's a different kind of market, but it's still a player's market. Sure, you lose the chance to go against the public the way that I normally encourage. But, those of you who really study baseball, and love watching a lot of games, will still have the ability to find edges in my opinion.

Face it:

*There's no way oddsmakers are going to be right about all 150 rotation starters. If you know your local guys better than they do, or if you can find young up-and-comers to back, or injured guys to fade...the money is going to be there for you. You'll be head of the curve and you'll be able to exploit that for a few starts.

*There's no way oddsmakers are going to be GREAT in this new environment right off the bat. Hey, these are smart guys. Many are my friends. Many others are guys I respect even if we're not buddies. But...the world just changed and NOBODY is going to get everything right immediately after a shift like that. Mistakes will be made. See if you can find them!

*The 2009 season in particular has been confusing because so many projected powers started out slowly, and so many projected patsies started out well. Things are starting to return to form the past several days in that regard. But...the teams are working toward normalcy at different paces. Some are tortoises who will be in the race at the end. Some are hares who've made big moves lately. That's tough to deal with when you have to get ALL 30 TEAMS RIGHT every single day.

*There are almost no days off to rest! The baseball schedule is very busy...with most days seeing everyone in action (Monday of this week is an exception, with just a few games on the card). During football season, oddsmakers have a lot of down time to gather their thoughts and analyze the teams. During basketball, there are at least a few days between college games...and a couple of quieter days in the pro's. In baseball, you go to war seven days a week.

This is a player's market if you're willing to do the work and bet intelligently in a disciplined manner.