CrazyMilkMan's PBA Season 37 Betting Thread

This thread will be for the discussion o Philippines Basketball Association games. I'm not sure if there are other places online you can bet but they have lines on MWS, betfair and bet365.


I won't be making any more new thread so there will be less clutter. We can leave the old thread behind now and use this for the whole PBA season.  Anyone can post here, share your insights, rumors, injury reports, etc. To make things interesting we'll run a little contest just for bragging rights so we can get everyone sharing their thing here.


CMM's Local Hoops Challenge Rules:

1. Post your best play.
2. I will only accept sides, totals NO Money Lines. 
3. Post before tip-off
4. The Unit system is only to gauge how heavy a play will be.
5. I will record everything and will reserve a Top 10 Best and the Worst Cappers (inspired by WBA's threads).
6. If I find you not active, you'll be remove from the list.
7. This thread will only record PBA games (and what's left of the NCAA season).
   
8. Last but not the least please follow this format (to make it easier for me and everyone else):
   

(YTD: 0-0) (UNIT COUNT)

(WAGERING ON plus the line)


Here's an example:

1-0

Ginebra +5.0
UNDER 200.0



Goodluck Everyone.

early lines:

ROS +5 VS GIN
180 o/u

leaning ROS and under 180.

how about you CMM?

Hey CMM,

The Total on Pinnacle is set to 180.5 and on BET365 it's 190.5.. What gives? Thanks

Pinny lines:
Ros +3 vs Gin 180.5

Projected Line for October 2, 2011:
PBA
6pm Game: Rain or Shine +5.0 185.5


Bet365 line:
Rain or Shine +5.0 v Ginebra 190.5



MSW line:  as of 10:00am
Rain or Shine +4.5 v Ginebra 180.5


Projected Scores:
Rain or Shine 90 - 95 Ginebra


Mojo Chart
Talk N Text      B+
Ginebra     B+
Meralco     B
Petron     B
Rain or Shine B-
Shopinas     C+
BMeg      C
Alaska     C-
Barako Bulls      C-
Powerade     C




Notes:
- Ginebra won and covered 2-0 against ROS in the Fiesta Conf. Both games are 1-1 O/U.
- GK is 2-2 SU/ATS and 2-2 O/U in the Comm.Cup.
- GK is 1-0 ats/su against ROS (went UNDER) in the Gov.Cup.
- GK is 2-1 su/ats (1-2 o/u) in their openers.
- ROS is 2-1 su/ats (2-1 o/u) in their openers.
- GK Man to Watch: Mark Caguioa
- ROS Man to Watch: #2 pick Paul Lee
- ROS-GK Last Season H2H results a 90-95 game point

im leaning in gins if that is the line..

 

190.5 is too high actually. Both teams usually plays around the 170ish mark so 180 is the right line. They went for as high as 187 in the conference with imports (usually averaging 20/10) and so you can expect the game total to be much lower. Both teams are streaky in terms of scoring so one quarter can destroy the total.

Is over the play if the line is set to 180.5?

0-0

Rain or Shine +5.0
UNDER 190.5  (bet365)


Won't be around later so will be posting my plays now. Small amount just to get an action in the game. GK will be without Erik Menk so it's pretty much even in the paint. Giving a slight edge to ROS because they are taller overall and more athletic. GK is still a team that loves to grind it out so expect the game to go UNDER the total. It should fall pretty close to 180.5. If I'm to put a ratio at it I'd say 2:1 since the total can easily be F'd up if they decide to have a go at each other. A Siot coached averages under 177 (the last season, i also included when he was an asst. coach for GK) so expect GK to be even more tenacious on D. Yeng Guiao is never known for defense, combined for 12-10 o/u after taking over ROS.

Yes it's still the right side for the total but it could end really close to it. Again, both are streaky teams which could light it up from time to time. ROS is a good 3 pointing team and GK is one of the league's best fast breaking team. I say it end around 170 given both teams are struck with first game jitters and all. I suggest a play on the side first (Rain or Shine) since I feel more comfortable playing it.

0-0

Rain or Shine +5.0
UNDER 190.5  (bet365)

CMM, what if the line is gin -3 or 4?

line now at pinny went up to 3.5 from 3.. i think it will go up to 4.5 by gametime :)

id be taking ROS +5.0 if that could be the line but if GIN -3.0 id back the kings with it. gonna be a close game, both teams wanting to get the W

0-0

Same with Animax. Ill post my final play later if line is available already :)

0-0

the totals is now at 184 wow!

ROS + 4.5
Under 180.5

0-0

ROS + 4.5
Under 180.5

waiting for the line..

i got gin +2.5 wow

0-0

Ginebra +2.5 (my line with my bookie)
Under 182.5 (pinny)