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How to make your own baseball moneyline

Forum: Systems & Strategies
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: How to make your own baseball moneyline
donovan_shane PM donovan_shane
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 5
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Posted: 5/25/2013 6:18:29 PM
Can anyone point me in the right direction to a book or a guide on making baseball lines. I'm always hearing how "sharp" bettors compare their lines to Vegas's lines. If they have the Red Sox at -140,but Vegas has them at - 160, there's value there. But how do you come up with your own lines?  For example....

I assume that it starts out at with 
Team A at -100
Team B at +100
Before the juice is added of course. Then does team A get bumped to -120 because they are at home? Then team B gets and extra +15 points taking them to +115 cause they have been on a 3 game loosing streak? Add in pitching, rankings, batting, ect. If someone could point me in the right direction I'd be forever in your debt. Thanks!

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1135
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Posted: 5/25/2013 6:25:12 PM
this link is a start - http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/181707-mlb-money-line-calculation.html

You know you should try googling something and doing some research before asking for help - just sayin' - this came up in 2nd lusting - Good luck to you
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TheBuddah PM TheBuddah
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 1627
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Posted: 8/16/2013 8:48:58 PM

Donavan - don't get too hung up on the line and trying to figure out what it should be etc.  You nor me or anyone on here unless they actually get paid to come up with the opening line - don't know each and every variable used nor do we know the exact weight of each of those variables to determine the exact line.   Your goal is to figure out who will win.   I suggest you read my post called MLB A system to consider parts 1 - 4.  It's about using the opening line along with other factors and mimicking history to determine winners and losers.   good luck to you.

Forum: Systems & Strategies
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