Big hitters always trouble the Pole, in part because she isn't given time to properly utilize her big back swing. Cue Ostapenko having such a good hth record against her (6-0).That's why her biggest success has come on clay, the one surface that dilutes the capabilities of power hitters.
This is Anisimova's final to lose, which she well could because it (currently) means too much to her, like it did to Lisicki in 2013.
@sandique
Solid rationale here...think Amanda gets thru her struggles and finds a way here...I believe having to get through Sabalenka the way she did will help her tremendously in the final...
Have her to win this at a nice price, I was praying Siegmund would hold on ...but now this battle test will give her the further confidence to go along with the supreme form she is in...gl
I think Swiatek will win in straight sets - Sabalenka has been awful this Wimbledon - and it was a wonder she hadn’t lost before - she was in trouble almost every single match - Swiatek is a totally different beast - apart from Noskova Anisimova hasn’t really met any meaningful opponents yet (Swiatek has annihilated some pretty big names already)
Ostapenko is actually mostly a challenge for Swiatek due to how far into the court she is able to stand when receiving - so she has an abnormally high winning procentage on Swiatek serves - and at this point it also play in mentally that she has a 6-0 lead on her - there are tons of other “big hitters” on tour where she has a positive h2h record with - it is an entire different argument that Grass favours hard hitters to a completely unfair extent - but the fact they play on Grass is also the primary reason Anisimova has a chance at all
For me it's a double down strategy on both dogs this weekend. Both Iga and Alkie are 5-0 in grand slam finals. To me that's unsustainable.
Starting off with Anisimova at +200, then Sinner at +105.
Since this is a thread about the women's final, I'll stick to the topic. Sabalenka admittedly had looked beatable all tournament, had to break to save the first set against Bouzkova, had to break to save first set against Raducanu, lost the first set to Siegmund. So she was beatable, but still the best player in the world.
Wimbledon is Iga's worst slam, and she has exceeded expectations to even make it this far.
With the way she has been mowing down opponents, she should be more like -400 or -500. -275 ain't cheap, but it's still cheap enough to play her.
The best play is probably Anisimova to win a set at -130, but I will take a shot on the ML. Winning in 3 is like +520, which looks like too much value there, so I don't see it happening. It will either be Iga in straights or Anisimova in straights IMO.
The women's game really has random grand slam winners most of the time since Serena retired. Iga and Sabalenka are a cut above everyone else on tour, but Iga has only won 2 out of the last 10 slams, and Sabalenka has only won 3 of the last 11.
Look at all the randos that have won slams lately.
Coco Gauff won the French Open
Madison Keys won the Australian Open
Barbora Krejcíková won Wimbledon last year
No consistency there.
If you think anisimova to win a set at -130 is good value, why not do Both players to win a set @ +136. I really think it goes 3 sets
Both Federer and Pete Sampras had some pretty insane records if I remember correctly - of the top of my head I think it was 7-0 (+ 14-2) and 13-2 respectively in GS finals won - so it wouldn’t be out of this world crazy if Alcaraz continued with a few more 
Because Anisimova to win in 3 is +520, and that's way too much value IMO.
I don't think it's going 3. One of them will win in straights. Iga is -110 to win in straights.
I actually don't like Anisimova that much. But at +200, and +215 now, it's cheap for the first leg of a chase. I'm already mentally planning to double down on Sinner, but this doesn't work without betting Anisimova first. Complicated to explain so I won't.
Yeah, I just saw Federer myself. Just because someone did it once before, doesn't make it any more probable. Especially in the case of Iga, where the women's game is so inconsistent and you don't really get dominant figures.
Probably the most dominant two women of my lifetime are Steffi Graf and Serena. Graf lost 2 out of her first 3 majors, then won 5 in a row. Serena won 6 out of her first 7, but lost the second one.
Again, I'm already mentally preparing to take Sinner tomorrow as a double up.
What's Swiatek's great hth record against high ranked big hitters on any surface but clay? Lets look at 4 notables:
Rybakina: Pole is 1-0 on clay, 4-4 not on clay (no grass meetings)
Sabalenka: Pole is 5-1 on clay, 3-3 not on clay (no grass meetings)
Keys: Pole is 4-0 on clay, 1-2 not on clay (no grass meetings)
Pegula: Pole is 1-0 on clay, 4-4 not on clay (Pegula 1-0 on grass)
11-1 on clay vs. 12-13 not on clay with grass barely featuring.
The moment she doesn't have the clay slowing down her power opponent, her big back swing is compromised and so then are her SU results. There's no arguing against it. Ostapenko is not some out-of-left-field exception (barring the degree she has the wood on the Pole). No one is asserting she cannot beat the bigger hitters. But they give her the most problems off of clay, and now she's facing one on easily her worst surface. One decent run at Wimbledon (against a draw of no notables: the best on paper she's faced being an injured Bencic only recently returned to the tour, Collins, 12-13 on grass over the last decade, and Tauson, 8-10 on grass, the latter 2 having no Wimbledon pedigree) doesn't mean she's over her issues. Her current SU odds say otherwise. It's bananas.
Anisimova's biggest hurdle is her own mentality, which was witnessed when she failed to serve out the 9th game for a 6-3 3rd set win vs. Sabalenka, and also in her previous match when she led 5-2 in the 2nd set and ended up (after blowing 2 match points) having to fetch back 5 set points in the eventual tie breaker to avoid playing a 3rd set. She's getting tight, and has a poor Sabalenka service game to thank for even being here. This isn't the Pole vs the American, it's the American vs. her own nerves. She holds it together, she won't be beaten imo.
You said Swiatek had a hard time versus "big hitters" (which I don't disagree with) and used Ostapenko as the example - which I just find misinformative - since that isn't the primary reason she is 6-0 versus Ostapenko that she is a "big hitter" - I didn't try discuss with you if Swiatek primarily has a hard time versus big hitters or not - or whether grass favors big hitters or not - because we agree on both of those facts - I just thought you were to coloured in your first post what narrative you wanted to put forth - and then I thought it was relevant to say there are plenty of big hitters she has a fine enough h2h with and some of them you highlight fine here in your new post
And Collins and Tauson (Tauson was also sick btw) are miles better than anyone Anisimova has met if you take Noskova and Sabalenka (under normal circumstances - but very few has underpreformed more than her here) out of the equation
We are not disagreeing on Anisimova having a chance here - but I disagree how well you presented the reasoning for your bet in the first place
Anisimova hits the return serve and some returns harder than any man in wimbeldon this year. Which is hard to believe but I did see her returns versus sabalenka and it sure did look that way . Iga has nerves of stone and doesn't get rattled but big hitters and servers beat a lot of players better than them on grass .happens in men's a lot . I'm going with the American from nj good luck
If Swiatek had played against her before then I may have backed her, but first time playing Anisimova and also on grass gives Ani an element of suprise and levels the playing field
Anisimova service game kinda sucks , but her return game, powerful strokes and backhand might catch the favorite off guard. Just placed my bet
I like the approach. I think at least one of them loses as well this weekend.
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