
The Alvarez selection is on point.
The kid is 21 and posted a ridiculous 40:8 K/BB ratio in his short stint last year.
There many people in the organization who feel he can be this teams best pitcher by seasons end.
His arrival basically got overshadowed because of Lawrie but Alvarez is a stud and should be very solid this year.
The Alvarez selection is on point.
The kid is 21 and posted a ridiculous 40:8 K/BB ratio in his short stint last year.
There many people in the organization who feel he can be this teams best pitcher by seasons end.
His arrival basically got overshadowed because of Lawrie but Alvarez is a stud and should be very solid this year.
Yeah, I didn't see that thread earlier.
With Doug Fister, I believe that much of the improvement he showed toward the end of the year was legitimate. But if people still view him as a near elite pitcher he will be valued correctly and you will be right about his value.
Chris Capuano is still a guy who has had never had a season ending ERA below 3.95. While there is a good chance everyone will remember Fister's great finish to last year, I think less people will take into account Capuano's finish. And I think based on his improvements he will be in for a career year.
For the record the guy I feel the most strongly about is Liriano, especially very early.
Yeah, I didn't see that thread earlier.
With Doug Fister, I believe that much of the improvement he showed toward the end of the year was legitimate. But if people still view him as a near elite pitcher he will be valued correctly and you will be right about his value.
Chris Capuano is still a guy who has had never had a season ending ERA below 3.95. While there is a good chance everyone will remember Fister's great finish to last year, I think less people will take into account Capuano's finish. And I think based on his improvements he will be in for a career year.
For the record the guy I feel the most strongly about is Liriano, especially very early.
Some of Fister's sabermetrix numbers suggest that last season he was the beneficiary of a large deal of luck. His W/L from last season probably isn't an indication of how well he actually pitched. I like most of the list but fister was actually one I was considering laying off of/fading early. He's playing for one of the public favorites on a much better offense who made massive splashes in the off season. He's gonna be laying some steep numbers. Detroit's lack of defense is gonna be a factor too. I won't bore you with stats but the link below is an interesting read. Obviously fantasy value and betting value are different, but in the end we're both looking for any edge. He might do well, but I definitely don't see him being under the radar or some value steal.
https://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k12_30qtigers
Some of Fister's sabermetrix numbers suggest that last season he was the beneficiary of a large deal of luck. His W/L from last season probably isn't an indication of how well he actually pitched. I like most of the list but fister was actually one I was considering laying off of/fading early. He's playing for one of the public favorites on a much better offense who made massive splashes in the off season. He's gonna be laying some steep numbers. Detroit's lack of defense is gonna be a factor too. I won't bore you with stats but the link below is an interesting read. Obviously fantasy value and betting value are different, but in the end we're both looking for any edge. He might do well, but I definitely don't see him being under the radar or some value steal.
https://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k12_30qtigers
I actually sort of took sabermetrics into account. He greatly improved his K/BB the past two months and was one of the top pitchers in baseball. I think he improved as the season went on and ESPN completely misses that. I also disagree that his BABIP should be expected to go above 0.310, since he has always had low BABIP's. Taking that into account, I would project his ERA to be closer to 3.3 instead of 3.7. He is also a GB pitcher so his ERA could outperform his xFIP. Miggy at 3b will hurt, but I'm not really sure how much.
I guess if everyone thinks this highly of him, then you're right and there won't be much value on him.
Two more pitchers I think might be good values are Matt Harrison and Brandon Morrow. Harrison also improved his peripherals in the 2nd half. I read an article about Morrow changing his approach, and he beleives he could go deeper into games. Then again he was valued highly by oddsmakers last year, but I assume he left a terrible impression on many bettors, so it's tough to say.
I actually sort of took sabermetrics into account. He greatly improved his K/BB the past two months and was one of the top pitchers in baseball. I think he improved as the season went on and ESPN completely misses that. I also disagree that his BABIP should be expected to go above 0.310, since he has always had low BABIP's. Taking that into account, I would project his ERA to be closer to 3.3 instead of 3.7. He is also a GB pitcher so his ERA could outperform his xFIP. Miggy at 3b will hurt, but I'm not really sure how much.
I guess if everyone thinks this highly of him, then you're right and there won't be much value on him.
Two more pitchers I think might be good values are Matt Harrison and Brandon Morrow. Harrison also improved his peripherals in the 2nd half. I read an article about Morrow changing his approach, and he beleives he could go deeper into games. Then again he was valued highly by oddsmakers last year, but I assume he left a terrible impression on many bettors, so it's tough to say.
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