Mr. Max Fried is not to be messed with following a Yankees loss

How good is Max Fried? Max Fried is so good that he’s become the rare athlete to join a New York sports team as a HIGH-priced free agent that didn’t immediately begin disappointing the team’s fans. Far from it, in fact. Fried is tearing through a great first season with the Yankees, and like a true ace ought to, he comes up big when the team needs a win. Check out what Fried has done this season following a Yankees loss…

April 9th - After the Yankees lost 5-0 in Detroit, he pitched 7 shutout innings in a 4-3 win.

April 20th - After the Yankees lost a particularly revolting 10-8 extra inning game in Tampa, he pitched 7.2 shutout innings in a 4-0 win.

April 27th - After the Yankees lost 4-2 to the Blue Jays in the Bronx, he pitched 6 shutout innings in an 11-2 win.

May 2nd - After the Yankees lost 5-4 in Baltimore, he pitched 7 shutout innings in a 3-0 win over the Rays in the Bronx.

May 18th - After the Yankees lost 3-2 to the Mets in the Bronx, he pitched 6 innings and allowed 2  runs in an 8-2 win.

May 24th - After the Yankees lost 3-2 in Colorado, he pitched 7.1 innings and allowed one run in a 13-1 win.

June 5th - After the Yankees lost 4-0 to Cleveland in the Bronx, he pitched 6 shutout innings in a 4-0 win.

June 10th - After the Yankees lost 11-7 to the Red Sox in the Bronx, he pitched 7 innings and allowed 2 runs in a 10-2 win in Kansas City.

June 15th - After the Yankees lost 4-3 in Boston, he pitched 7 innings and allowed 2 runs in a 2-0 loss.

June 25th - After the Yankees lost 5-4 in Cincinnati, he pitched 7 shutout innings in a 7-1 win.

So the Yankees are 9-1 behind Fried this season when he starts following a loss. His ERA in 66.1 innings is a scant 0.95. The average margin of victory has been 5.9 runs. The Yankees covered the runline in each of the last eight wins.

I rarely bet road favorites, but last week I bet on Fried and the Yankees -.5 -145 in the 1st 5 innings against the Reds and they delivered an easy win.

Today I’m on the Yankees -155 and -1.5 +108.

@MrBator

Max is still counting on the yankees giving him some runs that's the problem today.GL

BOL big boss, I was about to place a wager on Jays because its Canada day here on our side. Cant do it anymore 

Your rarely wrong and now iam placing some chips on the yanks, ty for your insight and finally sweep the leg and no mercy 

 Gusman stinks add that in 

Bol

@MrBator

@MrBator

Aside from the 2-0 loss in Boston, the Yankees have scored an average of 7 runs per game for him in this situation.

Well, he has stunk it up in 3 of his last 4 home starts. The guy is hit ‘n miss. Brilliant in his most recent start in Cleveland (8 shutout innings), but crummy in the two starts prior to that one.

Both lineups hitting around .230ish slight edge to Fried but one teams bats going need to wake up..

The more I think about it , the more I can't believe you're making this bet.

It's so SQUARE it's frightening.

There seems to be no tax being placed on the Yankees or Max today.

That's the only problem I have with it.

GL

It’s not frightening at all when you consider the Blue Jays have a very good 26-16 home record.

The oddsmakers requiring bettors to lay -155 against a .619 home team reflects Fried’s dominance. The bookies are asking a lot.

Go yanks.

@MrBator

I know it's pricey but  the last 17 times that   Jacob deGrom  started as a favorite of at least -140  his teams are 17-0   since October 2022 . And he just dominated the orioles last wedneday in baltimore .

@MrBator

 -250 would be asking a lot IMO

And bettors would still pay it

60% chance of winning this game

Agreed , why I bet them 

KingScorpio, no they wouldn’t. The Blue Jays aren’t the White Sox or the A’s.

@KingScorpio

 BJ are 8-2 vs LHP at home so may be why the line is where it is. 

But your non-square picks lately have been no bueno. Isn't that why you changed strategy?

Great reading of the spread @MrBator

Gausman is 10-10 lifetime vs. the Yankees and a touch over 3.5 ERA.  So if Fried is dominant the game goes under and the Yanks should still get close to 5 runs today making the -1.5 on the road somewhat appealing. 

When you look further into the numbers Fried is 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA in road affairs and even more sublime during the day where he is 5-1 with a 1.19 ERA.  Tough to argue with that.

Conversely Gausman is 3-2 with a 4.54 ERA at home and a quite pathetic 2-4 with a 5.15 ERA in day games.  Not exactly on the same level and just makes it more compelling.

Good luck hope the data helps guys 

@MrBator

 Brother are you silly. Didn't you spot out a pattern doing your own work. Or are you to set into your reality.

Everytime literally every team he went against following a Yankees lose. All suck at hitting LHP. To some degree or another.

There was not 1 solid left handed hitting team. Get caught up in your trends all you want.

Blue Jays can hit left handed pitching very well. I say this because I haven't check the injury report on bichette or Springer. Those two play. You will look foolish.

Good luck