NFL Picks

There’s no denying Allen’s passing prowess and the reigning MVP has connected for two or more touchdowns in nine of his 14 starts this season. He’s thrown for three TDs in each of the past two games. Most QBs of his quality would see the Over on touchdown throws carrying a hefty ask but Allen’s ability to run for the end zone anchors the vig on the Over each week, with juice often sitting at -130 or shorter. Cleveland has given up two passing touchdowns in each its last two outings, with Caleb Williams and Cam Ward doubling up. Allen’s projections range from 1.5 to 1.9 with the majority of models at 1.7 or higher.

Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Dawson Knox has stayed heavily involved near the goal line. He scored twice last week and had another touchdown erased by a penalty in Week 14. Over the last two games, Knox has four targets inside the 10 compared to three for Kincaid (Jackson Hawes has one). Cleveland has allowed just one quarterback rushing touchdown all season, which points to more Josh Allen passing near the goal line in another must-win spot. Kincaid remains the more dynamic playmaker, but it was Knox who played more snaps and ran more routes last week.

Egbuka has cashed the Over in catches in four of his last six appearances, reeling in four grabs last weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. Egbuka is averaging 4.3 receptions on the road compared to 4.0 at home, and the Buccaneers are visiting the Panthers on Sunday. 

While Mayfield has actually cashed the Under in passing yards in four of his last five games, he did throw for 277 yards last time out against the Atlanta Falcons, and we have to factor in that he’s facing his former team here. Since the Panthers cut ties with Mayfield, he’s 4-0 against them, and he hit the Over in passing yards in a win over Carolina last season. 

The Chargers have consecutive outright wins as an underdog, while the Cowboys have lost outright in back-to-back games as a favorite. Los Angeles has also won six of seven to improve to 10-4 for the campaign, while Dallas is all but officially eliminated from the postseason at 6-7-1. Additionally, just when it looked like the Dallas defense might be turning the corner, the Cowboys have given up 78 points while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per play the past two weeks. Dallas now sits 30th in defensive DVOA while allowing the third-highest EPA per play and second-most points per game (30.0).

After collecting 37 or more receiving yards in nine of the first 11 games of the season, Allen has been held below the benchmark in three straight with 12 receptions on 15 targets for 88 total yards. This is a bounce-back spot for the spry veteran, though. The Cowboys have surrendered the fourth-highest catch percentage to opposing wide receivers for the seventh-highest yards per target while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA.

Evan Hull had more carries than Audric Estime after Devin Neal's first half injury last week and the Jets have given up 23 touchdowns to running backs this season.

Chris Olave reeled in six catches for 85 yards last week against Carolina. He has logged 62+ receiving yards in six of his last nine games and he's finally getting good quarterback play with Tyler Shough under center. The rookie QB has developed chemistry with Olave who is the Saints only reliable pass catcher after they traded Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks. Olave gets a juicy matchup this week at home against the Jets who traded away top corner Sauce Gardner at the deadline. The Jets are 31st in the league in defensive dropback EPA while ranking 28th in DVOA against No. 1 WRs.

I’m taking Giants +2.5 because I don’t see much separation between these teams, Minnesota’s third-down and turnover volatility plays worse on the road, and New York has a realistic path to stay on script with quick-game and play-action.

The Vikings have been ineffective running the ball near the goal line, to the point that C.J. Ham handled the one-yard touchdown carry last week. In fact, J.J. McCarthy matched all Vikings running backs combined in carries inside the 10 and has now scored two rushing touchdowns across his six starts. This is also an offense that loves to pass in the red zone. He’s in a strong spot to add to that total against the Giants, who allow the most quarterback rushing yards per game and have already surrendered four QB rushing touchdowns this season. Marcus Mariota ran 10 times for 43 yards last week, and Caleb Williams went for eight carries, 63 yards, and a score four games ago. Those are clean comps for McCarthy’s rushing upside on Sunday. Look for his Over 18.5 rushing yards, as well. I'm playing this to +320/+330.

Ward has cashed the Under in passing yards in three straight appearances, finishing with 170 yards through the air last weekend in a loss to the 49ers. While the Chiefs may be missing the playoffs, they’re still fifth in fewest total yards allowed.

The Chiefs may be out of the playoff picture, but there’s no sign they’re packing it in. Isiah Pacheco’s role near the goal line remains encouraging after he handled five of the team’s seven red-zone carries last week and led the backfield with 11 total rushes. The efficiency wasn’t there, but the matchup improves significantly against Tennessee. Losing a more creative quarterback in the red zone and turning to Gardner Minshew should also funnel more looks to the run game. I make the fair price on this closer to +190 to +200.

Darren Waller has six touchdowns in seven games this season and the Bengals have allowed 15 touchdowns to TEs.

Mike McDaniel might be on the hot seat, but there’s no doubting that he’s a smart offensive mind and should be able to dial up enough plays to get Ewers looking reasonable, especially with the Dolphins leaning on De’Von Achane. On the other sideline, you have a Bengals offense that is simply far, far better when Joe Burrow is under center. Last week felt like a real low for Burrow and one of his worst performances, but he has the belief and confidence to bounce back, and should do so against a bottom-half-of-the-league defense.

The Broncos have the second-best sack rate in the NFL, and Lawrence will need to get rid of the ball quicker than usual. That means fewer downfield throws and more targets to his tight end. He's been targeted 18 times in his four games back from injury, and had five catches for 93 yards against the Cardinals. The Cardinals and Broncos have similar performance against tight ends, and things are lining up for Strange to top 50 yards and easily clear his total. 

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a six-touchdown performance, and Brian Thomas looks back to his 2025 form. He found the end zone last week and led the team in red-zone usage with three targets, including two inside the 10. It's a great price, and with Jakobi Meyers likely drawing defensive attention and the market still lagging on Thomas, Week 16 sets up as a strong buy spot. For a receiver who scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, +200 or better is a number worth taking.

There’s enough offensive talent here – and little enough defense – that this could quickly turn into a shootout, with both teams getting on the scoreboard plenty. I’m taking the Over.

Brissett has thrown the ball at least 40 times in six straight contests, averaging a whopping 45.7 pass attempts per game over that span. The Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have practically abandoned that part of their offense They are second in the NFL in passing play percentage (65.4%) with that number sky-rocketing to 72.5% over the last six weeks. Arizona is hosting the Falcons on Sunday in a warm and sunny day at State Farm Stadium. That should lead to plenty of throwing from a pair of teams with nothing to play for except pride.

The Texans are the biggest favorites of the slate and Collins is in good form with two TDs last week and four red zone targets in his past three games.

Nico Collins has been unstoppable over the last two months. He’s racked up 662 receiving yards in his past seven contests – at a 94.6 YPG clip – and he turned three catches into 85 yards and two touchdowns last weekend. He’s already clinched his third straight 1,000-yard season, and he’s blown past this O/U number in six of his last seven games.

Montgomery has one or fewer catches in eight games this season and in each of the previous two games. It is also likely that the Lions will be playing with the lead for much of this game, and it should remove the need for Montgomery to be in passing situations when he is on the field.    

Gibbs has averaged a league-high 2.4 rushing yards before contact per carry. The Steelers have allowed over a yard before contact per carry in four of their last six games. Gibbs is going to be able to find some open space and may only need to break one tackle to hit this prop.

Maye has had 240+ passing yards in six of his past seven games.

Stefon Diggs has incentive money firmly in play with three games remaining. He’s three receptions shy of a $500K bonus and 13 catches away from another $500K, putting a total of $1 million on the line. Diggs has recorded at least three receptions in all but one game this season but has been quieter recently in a pair of run-heavy matchups against the Bills and Giants. That could change this week against Baltimore, a defense allowing the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers. If Diggs wants to make a real push toward that second incentive at 80 catches, the volume needs to start building now. With the Jets up next and a Week 18 matchup against Miami that could turn run-heavy if playoff positioning is settled, this sets up as a spot where Diggs is motivated and the matchup finally cooperates.

The game moves indoors, Philip Rivers gets another week in the offense, and he’s no longer dealing with the environment at Lumen Field. San Francisco is also finally healthy on offense, giving this matchup real scoring upside. The Blitz projects this total at 52.1 points, and the Colts’ pace of play with Rivers hasn’t slowed compared to season norms. While last week’s passing line looks modest, Rivers still pushed the ball downfield with eight throws of 10-plus yards and nine targets to running backs, hinting at a more aggressive approach. Shane Steichen reinforced that the game plan can shift week to week. San Francisco’s defense just allowed 24 points and 6.2 yards per play to Tennessee, while Brock Purdy looked sharp coming out of the bye. The 49ers are also 6-3-1 to the over at home or indoors, where offensive efficiency tends to spike.

Once a season, touchdown bettors have to take a swing on 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and this might be the spot. The offense is back to full strength, Brock Purdy looked refreshed coming out of the bye, and Juszczyk is another week removed from a rib injury. He logged a season-high 46 offensive snaps last week and hasn’t scored since Week 3, which helps keep the price in check. Juszczyk remains a strong pass-catching option who can still win on a wheel route, and he has seven games with double-digit receiving yards this season. Indoors against an overrated defense that may not account for the fullback near the goal line, this sets up as a worthwhile long-shot look. A half-unit.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.