NFL Picks

Over the four-game stretch from Weeks 14–17, Bo Nix logged seven red-zone rushing attempts and converted two of them into touchdowns. For context, lead back RJ Harvey had 10 red-zone carries over that span and also scored twice. Nix is a much sneakier rushing threat than the market gives him credit for. He ramped up his run rate late in the season, carrying the ball 17 times for 91 yards in Weeks 17 and 18 while adding five more red-zone rushes. Last week, Trevor Lawrence was priced at +190 to score with only a slight edge in season-long carries over Nix, highlighting the value here. If Denver can establish the run against a shaky run defense, a play-action bootleg near the goal line sets up perfectly for Nix to cash this at a strong price.

Allen threw the ball 35 times against the Jaguars for 28 completions, with a lot of those being quick hits and screens. Jacksonville sold out on stopping the run and Broncos DC Vance Joseph does the same here, testing this depleted receiving corps against his elite secondary. After watching James Cook steam roll his stop unit last postseason, he stacks the box – keeps Cook and Allen’s legs contained – and makes Buffalo pass plenty.

Since Week 12, Zach Charbonnet has taken over Seattle’s red-zone work, logging 23 carries to Kenneth Walker’s nine and converting six of those chances into touchdowns while Walker has yet to score. Inside the five-yard line, the usage heavily favors Charbonnet by an 8–1 margin. Over the last two games, including Week 18 vs. San Francisco, Charbonnet has 35 carries for 184 yards and three TDs, plus added receiving work. Walker has similar overall volume but almost no red-zone usage. Charbonnet is clearly the primary finisher, making +100 a strong price.

JSN had 6 catches on 8 targets at San Francisco in Week 18 – a game in which the Seahawks ran on over 58% of their offensive snaps. This is a team that usually hands off at below a 50% rate. Running the ball won’t be as easy this time around and Sam Darnold will look to his top target when the going gets tough. He recorded 7 of more grabs in four straight before Week 18 and has gone Over this total of 6.5 receptions in 12 of his 17 games. He’s the second best WR vs. zone and faces a lot of that at home on Saturday.

Nobody on the Patriots ran more routes in the Wild Card round than Hunter Henry, who tied for the team lead with five targets and scored the offense’s only touchdown. He was priced at +125 to score back in Week 18 and continues to be the clear top option near the goal line, owning seven more red-zone targets since Week 10 than all New England wide receivers combined. New England isn’t projected to put up many points on Sunday, which makes backing the No.1 target in the passing game at his best price in months the cleanest angle. Houston has also been slightly vulnerable to tight ends, allowing eight TDs to the position this season compared to just 10 to wide receivers.

Stevenson was heavily involved in the Patriots offense in the Wild Card Round, on the ground and through the air. He gained back his spot atop the rushing attack at the end of the season, scoring six TDs in the final three games.  The yards are going to be hard against Houston and no one on the Pats goes as hard as Stevenson. 

This is a big fat fade of both defenses. Los Angeles is allowing an average of 30 points over their last five games, while Chicago ranks 29th in yards allowed per play on the season.  The Rams average a league-high 30.7 points per game and have the firepower to embarrass a Bears pass defense which is one of the NFL's worst.

After leading all pass-catchers in yards last week, I didn’t expect Colston Loveland to be priced north of +170 in the highest-total game of the Divisional Round. Loveland did everything but score in the Wild Card, piling up 15 targets and 137 yards. He may draw more attention this week, but this offense has enough weapons that the Rams can’t afford to sell out to stop him. This same defense just allowed over 200 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker and has surrendered 149 points over its last five games, including matchups against Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins. Loveland is in full beast mode with three straight games of 90-plus yards, and there’s no reason that run ends on Sunday.