NFL Picks

Bo Nix has thrown for Over 205.5 passing yards in three of his last four contests. He's been balling out this season, and the quarterback just had 247 yards through the air in Week 8. 

Here’s my weekly attempt at guessing which Denver player Sean Payton will feature on offense. Fair warning — I haven’t had much luck with this game. That said, after RJ Harvey’s two rushing touchdowns and one receiving score last week, where he handled 50% of the red-zone opportunities, I’m back on him to score again at +350 (compared to +130 for his backfield mate). Harvey’s snap share was just 28%, but he was heavily involved when on the field, converting both of his opportunities inside the five into touchdowns. That’s simply too long a price for a talented rookie with defined red-zone work. The matchup is tough, but that’s baked into the number. Harvey closed at +300, +270, and +240 over the last three weeks, yet the market hasn’t adjusted for his expanding role. I'm playing this to +280. 

The Giants have been gashed on the ground to the tune of NFL highs in both yards and EPA per rushing attempt, and I’m confident that if the G-Men sell out to improve their run defense, the 49ers can move the ball through the air. Either way, I’m anticipating San Fran controlling the time of possession and covering the number Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium.

Christian McCaffrey had three receptions for 43 yards last week against Houston. That was the first time this season that he has logged fewer than 50 receiving yards in a game. The All-Pro still on pace to shatter the NFL record for receiving yards in a season by a RB and he's averaging 69.9 ypg through the air. The Texans have the best DVOA against pass-catching backs and C-Mac has an easier matchup this week against the Giants. New York is 15th in DVOA against backs and struggles to make tackles in the second level. The strength of this Giants defense is their pass rush but that will result in Mac Jones throwing more short passes to outlet options like McCaffrey. 

Taylor has advantages in running to the left side of the field and teams have had success running to that side against the Steelers away from T.J. Watt. 

Haven’t hit the multiple TDs yet, but Week 9 sets up perfectly against the Steelers and their No. 31 EPA/play defense. Jonathan Taylor is a monster — just named AFC Player of the Month after putting up 500 yards and 10 TDs over the last four games. I’m all over the Colts’ team total Over 26.5, and Taylor should get plenty of goal-line work. Daniel Jones isn’t stealing any touches near the goal line, and JT is getting basically every running back opportunity. Pittsburgh has given up 68 points over its last two games, and another 30-piece is coming their way from the league’s hottest offense.

Jordan Love & Co. are starting to find a rhythm, and that’s been reflected in the games they’ve played, with the Over landing in their past four games. In two of those contests, we’ve seen the total absolutely smashed, including last week’s 35-25 victory over the Steelers. Like the Packers, the Carolina Panthers have seen the Over land more frequently as the season has progressed, with four of their past five games hitting that threshold. With the Packers’ offense clicking and the Panthers’ defense struggling to contain their opposition, we should see a relatively high-scoring affair, with the home team accounting for the bulk of the points.

The Panthers’ backfield split has taken a bit of shine off Dowdle since Chuba Hubbard returned to action. But in last week’s loss to the Bills, Dowdle ground out almost seven yards per carry. He finished with only eight carries in a blowout (leaving Carolina to pass more) but still amassed 54 yards. When pressed on the rushing split, head coach Dave Canales wouldn’t tip his hand but said, “That’s something we’re looking at” while trying to cushion the pending decision by talking up Hubbard’s career accomplishments. It really sounds like Dowdle will be RB1 against the Packets in Week 9 and many of his projections sit north of 60 rushing yards with 14-plus carries. 

Jared Goff doesn't run often, but he's faced two of the top blitzing defenses in the NFL the last two games. And he's scrambled for positive yards in both contests. Now we're getting plus-odds for him to pick up a single, solitary yard—against a Vikings defense that blitzes an NFL-high 42% of the time. The Vikings rank just 13th in sack rate despite bringing extra players so often, and have allowed rushing yards to the likes of Jake Browning and Aaron Rodgers. Goff should follow suit and cash this one for us as he takes off at least once in the game. 

Jefferson is averaging seven receptions per game on the road compared to 4.3 at home. He's cashed the Over in catches in three of his last four contests as well. 

The Chargers offense has too much firepower for the Titans to keep up on either side of the ball, and this game shouldn't be close.

Vidal is coming off a career-high 23 carries for 117 yards against the Vikings which is the second time in three starts that he has broken the 100-yard plateau. With Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris on the IR and Hassan Haskins dealing with a hamstring injury, Vidal should see another heavy workload in Week 9. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh loves to run the ball and the Bolts will likely have a positive game script since they are 9.5-point faves against the 1-7 Titans. Tennessee is 29th in the league in defensive rush DVOA while ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (142.6).

Tua Tagovailoa lit up the Falcons for four touchdowns last time out after Atlanta held Mac Jones and the beat-up 49ers offense to no passing touchdowns. Before that, though, both Josh Allen and Marcus Mariota had a pair of touchdowns each.

Maye and the Patriots should keep clicking at home on Sunday afternoon.

Drake Maye is a legit MVP contender entering Week 9, and the Falcons' defense is not as good as maybe we thought after the Dolphins wacked them last week. The potential loss of safety, Jessie Bates, is also a huge bonus for Maye and this New England offense. Stefon Diggs is the target this week at +155 with a buy to +135/+140. Diggs' role is getting stronger, and his work in the red zone is very valuable, as this is a very inefficient running team, especially near the goal line. Diggs tied for the position lead in RZ targets last week with three and brought one in for a score.

With a solid October run, the Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings, and they’ve won two of their last three road games. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6 ATS in their past nine contests, and they’re sweating on Flacco’s shoulder injury, with Jake Browning waiting in the wings. Although Cincinnati has the firepower to keep up if it turns into a shootout, I like Chicago to get enough stops to cover this small spread.

With a 51.5-point total, these touchdown props are priced about as tight as it gets. Still, one number stands out — Kyle Monangai at +225. D’Andre Swift played just 50% of the snaps last week while managing a groin injury, opening the door for Monangai. He logged seven carries in Week 8, but just a week earlier posted 13 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown. The matchup doesn’t hurt either — everyone’s finding the end zone against the Bengals lately (even the Jets). Given the pricing on other Chicago skill players, Monangai to score at +200 or better is my favorite TD look in what should be a high-scoring game.

The Jaguars are getting burned by tight ends this season, allowing the ninth-most yards per target. And now the secondary will be without Travis Hunter and Eric Murray, both of whom went onto the IR this weekend.

Bowers was targeted 27 times in the first four games before his injury, catching 19 passes. That kind of target share here should get him over his total of 50.5 yards.

Last season, he caught 11 of 13 targets against the Jaguars for 99 yards and a touchdown. He should have another strong day as Geno Smith's favorite target. 

Smith is coming off the worst game of his career, completing 10 of 16 passes for just 67 yards against Kansas City. That said, the Raiders are fresh off a bye which has allowed Pro Bowl TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers to get healthy. Meyers missed the Chiefs game while Bowers hasn't been at full strength since suffering a knee injury in Week 2. With his top two receivers back on the field, Smith should be able to air it out against a Jaguars D that has been a pass funnel. The Jags are second in the league in defensive rush success rate but just 25th in defensive dropback success rate while allowing 245.7 passing yards per game. 

Tyler Shough could be under siege against an elite Los Angeles Rams pass rush, and one of the Saints’ counters will surely be to release Kamara as a checkdown option. He won’t even need much volume to cash such a low number. I also see the game situation nudging the visitors towards the passing game. If New Orleans is playing catch-up in the second half, Kamara becomes an even bigger factor as a receiver — and those are the type of short-yardage throws that L.A. may be willing to give up.

I’m taking my Week 9 big swing indoors, and it’s definitely not with the Saints’ offense. The Rams are coming off a bye, and the last time bettors saw them, they were spreading the ball around to every tight end on the roster. Colby Parkinson played nearly 50% of the snaps and caught all three of his targets for 47 yards. In comparison, Tyler Higbee—priced in the +300s—played just 37% of the snaps and totaled only 19 yards. Parkinson has also carved out a role in the red zone. Over the Rams’ last four games, he’s matched Higbee in red-zone targets. The Rams’ tight end situation is messy, which makes it the perfect spot to take a shot on a long-odds touchdown scorer.

Shakir has been a great shallow option for the Bills, and that should play well against a Kansas City team that gives up short receptions while preventing deep balls in the passing game.

Patrick Mahomes will need to rely on his most dependable receivers in this game, and that should mean a continuation of Kelce's recent production.

The Seahawks struggle to defend scrambling quarterbacks through the air and Jayden Daniels is one of the best in the league at doing just that. 

JSN has hit this number in all but one game this season and the Commanders give up big plays at one of the highest rates in the NFL. 

With a game total north of 50 and Knight’s rushing line set at 57.5 yards, I’m all in on him this week. I’ve already grabbed his anytime touchdown at +145 and I’m adding his rushing overs. Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett under center, I’m comfortable—Brissett actually ran the offense more efficiently in Weeks 6 and 7. In Arizona’s last game, Knight handled 64% of the running back opportunities, even with Carter getting seven carries for just 11 yards. Over his two starts, he’s faced tough run units (Packers, Colts) but still logged 25 carries for 91 yards and a score. With that kind of volume against this soft Dallas defense, 15 carries for 60 yards would only require 4.0 yards per carry—a modest ask versus a defense allowing 4.9 per rush on the season. The matchup is perfect and the opportunities could be more than expected. 

There could easily be 60 points in this game, and I’m getting a starting running back at +145? I’d play Trey Knight down to even money, especially with Michael Carter only on the practice squad. The Cardinals are coming off a bye with just Knight and Emari Demercado on the roster, and Demercado is still dealing with an ankle issue. The Cowboys might have the worst defense in football right now, making this a great price on a back who’s found the end zone in two of his last three games.

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.