NFL Picks

Marcus Mariota has thrown 42.7% of his pass attempts downfield and the Dolphins have allowed the third highest passer rating against downfield passes this season. 

Waddle has been one of the most efficient receivers in vertical routes this season and the Commanders are terrible in defending vertical routes.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are 7-3 in the AFC West, have covered in two of their previous three games, and feature an offense that has shown significant improvement from earlier in the season. They’ve scored an average of 8.8 more points per game in the previous five games, as they did in the first five games of the season.

I’m balancing out a few long shots with one of my favorite near-coinflip touchdown plays. Travis Etienne handled 16 carries and four targets last week, adding a 6-yard score against a tough Houston defense. It was just his fourth touchdown of the season, but the usage has been elite — 14 red-zone carries over the last two games, including both of Jacksonville’s attempts inside the 10 last week and seven total over the last two games. And let’s be real — if the ball is near the goal line, Liam Cohen isn’t putting it in Trevor Lawrence’s hands to make the decision. I’m playing this to -110.

With Bucky Irving still sidelined, White should remain heavily involved in Week 11, and he'll get a great matchup with a Bills defense allowing the third-most rushing yards to opponents.

Shakir has been on a roll over the last three weeks, and he'll look to stay hot with a favorable defensive matchup at home in Week 11.

The Bears lead the entire league with 13 interceptions this season, including that one against McCarthy in Week 1. They’ve had an interception in six of nine games this season, and McCarthy has been turnover-prone this season. I’ll take both of those trends to continue in this rivalry matchup.

Jefferson is coming off a pair of quiet performances but the All-Pro wideout is poised for a big game in Week 11. Minnesota is still adjusting to new QB J.J. McCarthy but he's coming off a career-high 242-yard performance and playing indoors at the U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday should lead to improved passing efficiency. While Jefferson was limited to 37 receiving yards on four catches last week, he saw a season-high 12 targets. Expect him to reel in more of those targets this week against a Bears defense that is vulnerable through the air. Chicago is 26th in the NFL in defensive pass DVOA while allowing 160.0 receiving yards per game to wide receivers — the sixth-highest number in the league.

The Packers have a much better matchup this week and should be a prime spot to target their receivers near the goal line. Few teams are allowing more points than the Giants, who will be starting Jameis Winston. Injuries are piling up again for Green Bay. Tucker Kraft is out, while Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks, and Savion Williams are all limited in practice. Romeo Doubs looks past the chest injury that cost him some snaps last week against the Eagles. Packers wideouts didn’t see a single red-zone target last week, but Doubs led the group in Week 9 with three inside the 20. His anytime touchdown price is the second-shortest among Green Bay players, trailing only Josh Jacobs.

Josh Jacobs trails only Jonathan Taylor in total touchdowns, and the Green Bay Packers running back continues to be a massive red-zone threat on the ground. Jacobs should gash a Giants front seven that struggles against the run, surrendering 151.1 rushing yards per game. He’s found the end zone twice in three separate games already this season, and I like Jacobs to get the rock early and often as Green Bay looks to find traction in the Meadowlands.

Even with CJ Stroud in the concussion protocol, this shouldn't be a one-score game. Houston is the far better team here and should win by more than a touchdown.

Houston needed a miracle fourth quarter to avoid a home loss to Jacksonville last Sunday and is playing without QB1 C.J. Stroud, who could sit again due to a concussion. The Texans have enjoyed three straight home games but now leave NRG for Nashville and run the risk of a nasty “letdown/look-ahead” sandwich this Sunday. After taking on the Titans, Houston has a short turnaround to ready itself for a mid-week matchup with Buffalo on Thursday Night Football in Week 12. And with that game being the team’s sixth game in 31 days, we could see the Texans take their foot off the gas in the second half of this AFC South showdown. The Titans, who were shutout 26-0 at Houston in Week 4, do pose a threat to a suspect Texans offensive line that could be down two starters. Tennessee’s pass rush has done a good job getting to rival quarterbacks, sitting sixth in QB hit rate and 13th in total sacks (22).

Young has cashed the Under in passing yards in three of his last four appearances, and he's up against the best pass defense in the league on Sunday. 

Bijan Robinson has seen his role as a receiver drop in recent weeks. He bookended a 10-target, eight-catch, 50-yard receiving effort vs. New England in Week 9 with only three targets against Miami and two targets in last week’s loss to Indianapolis in Germany. This is a notable decline from his work earlier in the season, when he drew at least five targets in each of the the opening six games. With Tyler Allgeier gaining ground in terms of handoffs, head coach Raheem Morris told reporters that, “Bijan Robinson will get going. We’ll just continue to find different creative ways to get him the football.” There’s only two ways to get him the ball. Receiving projections for Week 11’s home stand with Carolina range from 36 to 44 yards through the air, with receptions bouncing between four and five receptions. He caught five of six balls for 39 yards vs. Carolina earlier this season.

The last game between these two teams featured 64 points and the Bengals defense has only gotten worse since that game. 

Cincinnati has been a disaster defensively, giving up 36.7 points per game over its last seven contests — and that’s not a typo. Tight ends are averaging over 80 receiving yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game against this unit. Jonnu Smith led all Steelers tight ends in routes last week with a 71% route share. He only saw two targets, but the entire offense struggled to move the ball. Among the three Pittsburgh tight ends, Smith is priced in the middle for an anytime touchdown, but he’s the best bet to score in what should be a high-total game and one of the softest matchups on the slate.

Arizona’s offense may not be fantastic, but we saw last week in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams just how badly this 49ers defense can be exposed. Jacoby Brissett has been solid for the Cardinals, too, even against great defenses – and he’s made it work without some of his top weapons available on offense.

There’s just too much unknown with this 49ers offense going back to Purdy, and I don’t think it’ll have a ton of success on what’s been an excellent secondary. We know San Francisco can’t run, either, and the last time these teams met, the 49ers scored just one touchdown. We just need Arizona to score, and it should.

McCaffrey has been cashing the Over on his receiving props all year but it might be time to start fading the star RB when it comes to the passing game. This week he faces the Cardinals who allow the eighth-fewest receptions per game (3.9) to opposing RBs. But the main reason I'm fading C-Mac on his receptions is because QB Brock Purdy and WR Brock Purdy return to the field after missing the last six weeks. Purdy tends to throw downfield more than backup Mac Jones and will likely rely slightly less on McCaffrey in the passing game. Pearsall ranks 12th in the league in yards per route run and his presence gives the Niners a wealth of receiving options which will lead to fewer targets for McCaffrey. 

Darnold has cashed the Over in TDs in three of his last five appearances. He threw for four touchdowns in Week 9 against the Washington Commanders, and the Rams' pass defense isn't great. 

This is a big number for a tight end who saw three red-zone targets last week, just one behind George Kittle’s league-leading four at the position. It might look like a long shot, but Matthew Stafford has been on fire with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. The Rams also kept throwing late last week, even with a comfortable lead. Parkinson has only one touchdown this season (last week at +950), but he’s had at least one red-zone target in four straight games and led the Rams’ tight ends in snap share last week at 57%. Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line — they’ve accounted for seven of his 25 touchdown passes this season.

J.K. Dobbins is done for the year, which means RJ Harvey takes over as the bellcow in the Bronco backfield. It also means he likely inherits the 20 red-zone carries Dobbins had this season. That's great news for a back who already leads the NFL in touchdown catches out of the backfield with four on the season. And he's caught touchdown passes in three of his last four games. The Chiefs rank 22nd in success rate against the run and 25th in EPA. They're also allowing 4.3 yards a carry. Running the ball is the best way for the Broncos to help Bo Nix and the offense maintain drives, and his increased snap count makes this price far too favorable to ignore. 

Mahomes will be under relentless pressure from this Denver pass rush. Additionally, he will face a defense that ranks fifth in man coverage rate. That means plenty of chances to take off. The Lions are a similar defensive profile to the Broncos, and Mahomes scrambled five times in that contest while registering a season-high 10 carries. Three of those carries came via kneel-down, which is an additional boost. The Broncos are struggling to put together consistent drives and are 3.5-point underdogs here. With Mahomes likely getting a couple of kneel-downs, combined with the favorable scrambling scenario, this is a terrific floor to aim for.  

The Ravens have allowed 678 yards after contact to running backs this season.

I might be taking a few too many shots in Week 11, but DraftKings is hanging a great number on Charlie Kolar, who’s scored in two of his last three games. He’s been priced at +850, +950, and +1700 during that stretch, and with the move back to Lamar Jackson plus a tough Browns run defense, the setup makes sense. Kolar played 44% of the snaps last week as Baltimore used 11 personnel on just 18% of plays against Minnesota. Despite being the team’s No. 3 tight end, he’s seeing roughly the same target volume as DeAndre Hopkins — who’s +330 to score. I’ll take a half-unit shot on Kolar this week, banking on some play-action near the goal line to get No. 88 another touchdown.

At home in a game with strong scoring potential, getting Saquon Barkley near even money for a touchdown feels like a gift. Sure, it’s not 2024 Barkley, but this offense isn’t as bad as it looked in Week 10, and the Lions are more than capable of giving up points. Barkley topped 100 total yards last week against a tough Green Bay defense and appears fully past his Week 8 groin injury. He scored twice just two games ago against the Giants and has been priced as short as -220 for a touchdown this season. Getting him close to even money in a likely shootout is a great value play — especially on a card with plenty of longshot props.

Montgomery, who had 13 or fewer carries in seven of the eight games prior to Week 10, made the most of that extra involvement, taking those 15 runs 71 total yards – his second biggest rushing output of the season. Unlike past outings, he was involved in the opening scripts and took four handoffs in the first two offensive possessions. Running the ball is Detroit’s best plan of attack against the Eagles. Philadelphia does show weakness on the ground, sitting 25th in opponent success rate per handoff (44.3%), 21st in Run Defense DVOA at FTN, and 24th in run stop win rate at ESPN. Those all add up to an average of 4.4 yards allowed per carry (20th) and a Lions run game grinding out first downs. Montgomery’s player projections aren’t overwhelming by any means, with most sitting just north of his current rushing yards total. That said, those metrics aren’t accounting for the shift in philosophy under Campbell’s guidance.

Lockett has a lot of trust in Geno Smith from their Seattle days, and Tre Tucker is not a heavy-volume wide receiver. In his first game last week with the Silver and Black, Lockett played just 59% of the snaps and led the team in targets (six), receptions (five), and yards (44). Those numbers could be improved on Monday night indoors versus this defense, and the ladder potential is real here.

There’s only one matchup that makes me interested in the Raiders’ passing game — and it’s against the Cowboys. The +370 price certainly helps. Tyler Lockett, in just his second game with Las Vegas, saw six targets for 44 yards in last week’s 10–7 loss. He already has chemistry with Geno Smith from their Seattle days, and with Jakobi Meyers traded, the Raiders are thin at wide receiver. Lockett tied for the team lead in route share at 79% and was on the field for nearly every three-wide set in Week 10. It’s a long shot, but I like backing WR2s at +300 or better, especially against a pass-funnel defense like Dallas. Lockett is also the only Raiders receiver to see a red-zone target over the last two games.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.