NFL Picks

George Pickens had a 44-yarder the last time he played the Commanders and has hit this in nine games this season. 

Rodriguez has taken most of the control of the backfield over the past few weeks and this is a great matchup against the Cowboys defense. 

David Montgomery has rushed for 32+ yards in three of his last four games and he'll have the upper hand against a weak Lions rush defense. Detroit has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards in the NFL and they're also dead last in rush first downs against.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been dealing with a knee injury, which limited his practice this week, as well as his performance in Week 16. The Vikings own one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, ranking first in pass attempts allowed, second in completions, and second in total yards. 

Kelce has logged 40+ receiving yards in 12 of 15 games this year. While he'll have third-string QB Chris Oladokun throwing him the ball, inexperienced passers often rely on outlet options like tight ends. He'll also see a higher target share since No. 1 WR Rashee Rice was just placed on the IR and the Chiefs will likely have a passing game script since they are 13.5-point underdogs. The Broncos have been vulnerable against tight ends, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to the position. Kelce had 91 receiving yards against Denver when these teams clashed in Week 11 and I expect a big performance from him in what might be his final home game at Arrowhead. 

When handicapping games with inexperienced QBs, one overlooked angle is their tendency to take more sacks. These signal-callers generally aren't used to the speed of NFL pass rushers and struggle with their processing and pocket awareness. That bodes poorly for Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun who makes his first career start against a Broncos stop unit that has piled up a league-high 63 sacks. Pro Bowler Zach Allen leads all NFL defensive lineman with 66 pressures and has picked up at least half a sack in seven of his last 11 games. He'll push the pocket against a banged-up Chiefs line and get to Oladokun. 

Houston’s defense is solid overall, but it has shown cracks near the goal line. The Texans rank 23rd in red-zone scoring defense, allowing touchdowns on 60% of trips, a worse rate than both the Jets and Raiders. Omarion Hampton should be heavily involved throughout this game and was leaned on in scoring situations last week. He finished with five red-zone carries, turning them into 25 yards and a touchdown. Kimani Vidal also left last week’s game with a neck injury and was DNP early in the week, which could further concentrate the workload. If Vidal is sidelined or limited, Hampton has a clear path to 20-plus touches with goal-line equity. At that usage, anything around even money or +105 is worth backing.

The Texans have won seven in a row with three of those win coming as underdogs. They lead the league in defensive EPA and ppg allowed (16.6). Their ability to bring pressure off the edge with Danielle Hunter (13 sacks) and Will Anderson (11.5 sacks) will cause problems for L.A., which has struggled in pass protection with both stud tackles on the IR. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud and this balanced Houston offense should have some success moving the ball against a Chargers defense that looks fraudulent despite not allowing many points in recent weeks. The Bolts rank 22nd in yards allowed per rush (4.4) and also sit in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate.

Should Lamat Jackson sit out Week 17, Baltimore still has a serviceable second stringer in Tyler “Snoop” Huntley but more importantly has Derrick Henry. Throughout his career, the bruising running back does his best work in December and is once again on a tear this month, rushing for 94, 100, and 128 yards in the past three games. Henry smashes through a Packers run stop that has come undone, allowing 110-plus rushing yards in three of its last four and allowing a seventh highest success rate per carry since Week 12. Baltimore can dominate time and possession, taking the heavy work off whichever QB is under center, while boosting one of the better defenses in the second half of 2025. The Ravens stop unit stumbled out of the blocks but is a Top 7 defense since Week 9.

Both teams could be missing their franchise QBs with Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love exiting in Week 16 with injuries. Even if they suit up, they'll be less than full strength and face solid stop units. The Ravens struggled on defense at the start of the season due to the absence of LB Roquan Smith and multiple injuries on the line and in the secondary. However, they've gotten many of those injured players back and rank fifth in the league in defense success rate since Week 6. Meanwhile, the Packers are seventh in the league in defensive rush success rate and fifth in yards allowed per carry (4.0) which will help them slow down a Baltimore attack that relies heavily on Derrick Henry. 

The Dolphins offense is much more versatile with Quinn Ewers under center. Before benching Tua, Miami was actively trying to keep the ball out of his hands. Ewers, however, threw for 260 yards last week – mark Tua had passed only twice all season. Tampa’s defense is dreadful and this once mighty run-stop unit is broken. Achane goes big. Ewers stretches the field. And the Bucs will be scoreboard watching. They could think about pulling their starters in the second half should they be up big and Carolina be down to Seattle, protecting themselves for a Week 18 NFC South title game.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.4. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

Mac Hollins’ stat line last week was easy to overlook with Stefon Diggs grabbing the headlines, but the usage was real. Hollins finished with 69 yards on seven catches and nine targets, quietly playing a key role in the passing game. He also cashed a $300K incentive with his 40th reception and now sits just four catches away from another $400K bonus. This sets up as a favorable spot for an offense that typically handles bad teams, and New England’s red-zone tendencies only add to the appeal. The Patriots’ running backs have accounted for zero touchdowns over the last three games in the red zone despite nine red-zone carries and three red-zone targets, forcing scoring equity back to the passing game. With New England capable of hanging a big number on Sunday, Hollins’ volume and motivation make him a strong plus-money consideration.

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Make this price make sense. Warren is coming off a two-touchdown performance with 143 rushing yards against Detroit, continues to handle the majority of the workload, and owns the red-zone carries. He was priced as short as +110 for a TD just two games ago, and this number sits roughly 70 cents longer than where he closed last week. The matchup only strengthens the case. Cleveland isn’t a dominant offense capable of forcing negative game script, and the Browns were just gashed by James Cook for 117 yards and two scores on 16 carries. With plenty on the line for Pittsburgh and DK Metcalf sidelined, the Steelers may lean even more on Warren, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon entering Week 17. Even at +150, this would still be worth a bet.

The Over is 5-2 in games in which the Steelers are the road team and with such a low total, we can see both teams score enough to cover.

Cincinnati’s offense showed signs of life last week, going a perfect 6-for-6 in the red zone against Miami. With Noah Fant inactive, Mike Gesicki stepped into a larger role, finishing with 35 yards on four targets and a touchdown. He was also one of just two Bengals pass-catchers to see a red-zone target in that game. The matchup sets up well again. Only Dallas has allowed more points per game than Arizona since Week 14, and Gesicki remains one of the few Bengals TD prices that’s still reasonable in the market. Cincinnati’s implied team total sits around 31.5 points, which suggests another high-scoring afternoon for Joe Burrow and this offense. In a game where points are expected to come in bunches, Gesicki’s role near the goal line makes him a worthwhile look at plus money.

 

You’re going to give me a +120 ATTD return on the best TE in the league against the worst defense when it comes to defending tight ends? I’ll bite. Cincy has allowed 15 scores to the position. McBride has nine TDs in his last 10 games. This game has the highest total on the Week 17 board, so expect plenty of passing (from the two highest passing rates in the league) and points.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence are pushing the pace offensively, and Parker Washington’s touchdown price doesn’t reflect his current role. In an indoor matchup against an Indianapolis defense that was exposed on Monday night, his number shouldn’t be longer than +210. Washington is coming off a 10-target performance where he led all Jaguars pass catchers in targets, receptions, yards, and air yards. He also converted two red-zone targets into a 12-yard touchdown. This is a dangerous receiving trio, but Washington’s usage suggests he can pace the group again in a favorable matchup against a defense that’s shown it can be beaten.

The Over is 6-2 since Jacksonville's bye week, in large part due to the offensive explosion led by Trevor Lawrence. Liam Coen is a playcalling wizard, and it's led to the Jaguars putting up points by the bunches, averaging 33 points a game since the bye.

The Colts defense is riddled with injuries, and just allowed the 49ers to cover the total by themselves on Monday night. And with another total sitting in the 40s, I'm taking the Over yet again.

The Colts must win this game and get a ton of help to reach the playoffs, so they'll go down swinging until the end. Jacksonville should get well into the 30s yet again, while I expect the Colts to get enough done through the air to push this total into the 50s. 

Seattle’s defense looked very beatable in Week 16, and if Carolina is forced into a pass-heavy script, the ball is going to Tetairoa McMillan at a massive rate. He’s seen roughly every third target when the Panthers drop back, yet this is the longest his touchdown price has been in four games despite scoring in four of his last five. There’s really only one reliable option to back in the Panthers’ passing game, and it’s McMillan. Given his role, usage, and consistency in the red zone, he’s a player I’m comfortable backing weekly at +170 or better.

The Seahawks are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.72 seconds per play) will play at the 11th-slowest tempo among all games this week.. The Seahawks have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 31.8 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.7% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The model projects Michael Mayer to garner 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs.. The leading projections forecast Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.2% in games he has played).

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Raiders defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).. The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The Eagles didn't pull away from the Washington Commanders in Week 16 until third-string QB Josh Johnson entered the game, and Philly ranked 27th in offensive DVOA while generating the ninth-lowest EPA per play over the prior six weeks. So, with the Bills rattling off four consecutive wins and sporting a 6-1 record at Highmark Stadium, I don't think the Eagles can put enough points on the board to cover the number in Week 17.

The Bears have a rare rest edge at this point in the season thanks to playing last Saturday and the 49ers featuring in Monday Night Football. That two-day edge is especially valuable on a travel week and sets up Chicago for success against the weakest defense it’s faced in a long time. This offense has been one of the best in the second half of the schedule, despite some strong defensive opposition. Chicago has played the Packers twice, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Minnesota in the past six outings. San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks well below those foes in defensive measurements.

These are two of the better offense in the second half of the season, sitting Top 10 in EPA per play and EPA per dropback since Week 9. The Bears have put up points against some tough defensive foes in recent weeks. Played the Packers twice, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. The last time Chicago took on a stop unit as soft as San Fran’s it hung 47 points on the Bengals. The 49ers have put up points as well, with 26 or more in six of their last seven outings – going 5-2 O/U in that span. They just watched the “Ghost of Xmas Past” – AKA Philip Rivers throw for 277 yards and two tuddies.

The Falcons aren’t going to the tournament but continue to battle with veteran QB Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta has won back-to-back road games and Monday will be just its second homestand in the past six weeks. 

Los Angeles is a much stiffer test defensively than the Falcons’ recent foes but this team has a bevy of offensive weapons, especially with the return of WR Drake London, and head coach Raheem Morris could be coaching for his job on MNF.

This spread opened Atlanta +7.5 and jumped to +8.5, which is an underrated key number in football betting. I like the fight in the Falcons enough to take the pile of points with the home side.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. With a high 9.3% Red Zone Target% (76th percentile) this year, Kyren Williams rates among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).