NFL Picks

The Rams have an implied running game script as 10.5-point faves and with rain and heavy wind in the forecast, it's even more likely they'll lean on their ground game. With L.A. using both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum down the stretch, it's tough to decide which RB to bet on. That said, Williams has gotten the majority of touches in big games and they don't get any bigger than the playoffs. Williams has rushed for 70+ yards in five of his last six contests, including Week 13 at Carolina when he had 72 yards. The Panthers surrendered a whopping 144.8 rushing yards per game in the final 10 weeks of the regular season.

Williams has scored the opening TD in four Rams games this season.

Green Bay's defense has an aggressive, fast-flowing style that make them vulnerable on end-arounds. Ben Johnson will have to be creative and show the Packers looks that they didn't see in Weeks 14 and 16 so bet on him to get D.J. Moore involved in the run game. Moore was utilized that way earlier this season, rushing for more than 2.5 yards in six of his first eight games while totaling 12 carries over that span. However, he was given just three rush attempts his last nine games. The Bears need to get the ball into the hands of the speedy wideout and I think the ground game is how they do it.  

Reed is set up to slice and dice the Chicago defense. He’s the Packers’ primary slot receiver, which is a position the Bears struggle against. In his two games versus Chicago, Reed had three receptions for 35 yards and four catches for 41 yards. It’s not just receiving where Reed does damage. In those two meetings with the Bears, Reed was used as a ball carrier, drawing three carries for 28 total rushing yards. Most of his receiving projections sit around 45 yards while his rushing forecasts indicate at least one carry, with a ceiling of 5.5 rushing yards.

The Bills are small road favorites and I'm not sure they should be since Jacksonville enters the playoffs red-hot, going 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games. The Jags finished the regular season with one more win than Buffalo, despite facing a tougher schedule, and is also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings. The Jags are fifth in the league in defensive EPA and have been strong against both the run and pass. On the other side of the ball, Travis Etienne will churn out yards against a Bills run defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.

The Jaguars have a Top-3 run defense so James Cook might not have his usual success on the ground. That should lead to Buffalo relying on Josh Allen to air it out against a vulnerable secondary. Allen is one of the best QBs in the NFL but his passing numbers wildly fluctuate due to game script and weather conditions. However, with this game close to a pick'em he'll likely throw more than usual. And with balmy 65-degree temps in Jacksonville, this will be the nicest weather he has played in since Week 12.

He’s been a touchdown machine in recent weeks, finishing with four TDs in his final three games. The Eagles activate him in the red zone in a number of ways, including some slick “chest pass” misdirection. San Francisco had a tough time with TEs, including giving up 10 touchdowns to the position. Fred Warner was their best coverage LB, he’s gone. Dee Winters the second best coverage LB, runs the risk of missing Saturday. 

The anytime touchdown prop for Dallas Goedert looks mispriced especially with wideouts AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith priced slightly lower . Goedert leads the Eagles with 11 touchdowns which is as many as Smith and Brown combined. He also had a team-high nine targets inside the 10-yard line, reeling in eight of them for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Brown and Smith combined for eight targets and four scores inside the 10-yard line. The 49ers are also worse at defending tight ends than wide receivers. They are 24th in the league in receptions allowed to TEs while allowing 10 touchdowns to the position.

New England finished the regular season with an NFL-best 1st Half record of 12-4-1 ATS. They led the league in 1st Half scoring while the Chargers ranked 20th. I expect the fast starts to continue as Los Angeles could be in for a long adjustment period as an indoor team playing in frigid New England weather with the temperature expected to be below 40°F at kickoff. 

Maye made magic with his ability to tuck and run, marching for 450 rushing yards this season. However, as playoff chances improved, his propensity to run dwindled as the Patriots worried more about protecting their passer. In the first 10 games, Maye recorded seven or more carries seven times. He’s reached that bar just once in the last seven outings. That caution goes out the window Sunday. A tough L.A. defense – especially on third downs – will spring Maye from the pocket and we’ll see a return to the run. His rushing projections sit as high as 31 yards for Sunday.

Schultz ranks second in RZ targets for the Texans and the Steelers have given up 11 touchdowns to TEs.

Nico Collins was out last week when Higgins cashed at +195, but even with Collins back in the lineup in Week 17, Higgins still found the end zone at +380. He has now scored in five of his 11 games since Week 8, quietly carving out a consistent role. The volume isn’t eye-popping, and he likely won’t see more than four or five targets, but his value comes near the goal line and stretching the field. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, the coaching staff clearly trusts his catch radius and ability to win in tight spaces. That matters against a Pittsburgh secondary that was leaking big plays late in the season and ranks among the worst units in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. Higgins can beat this defense vertically or win a one-on-one in close. Even as the potential No.3 option, this price is playable to +300.