NFL Picks

The Niners have won six straight games, prompted by the play of quarterback Brock Purdy. He’s back to being one of the most efficient arms in the NFL, ranking Top 2 in many advanced passer metrics since returning to the fray in Week 11.

Purdy is playing at an extremely high level the last three games, hovering around 300 passing yards in each outing, completing 72% of attempts, and tallying 11 passing touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s also rushed for 83 yards and two TDs in those showings.

Granted, those stats do come against some less-than-stingy defenses, but I feel much more confident in Purdy’s passing than I do with Sam Darnold right now. The Seahawks QB has shown flashes of why he’s far from elite in recent weeks, especially when it comes to ill-advised throws (four INTs the last four games). 

With this spread growing from Titans +10.5 to +13, the opportunity for a backdoor cover grows wider. 

Tennessee has been one of the best bets in football down the stretch, going 5-3 ATS in the past eight outings. The Titans have been particularly feisty over the last four contests, going 2-2 SU and ATS with those two losses coming by one score.

What’s more, interim head coach Mike McCoy is trying to boost his resume ahead of the 2026 hiring session and would love nothing more than to stick it to his former employer in Week 18.

“If we go in there and beat them, and all of a sudden somebody else – Houston - ends up winning, they win the division,” McCoy told the media on Monday morning. “Things like that. It's an opportunity to go out there and do something like that against a division opponent."

Jacksonville still has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a Week 18 win also clinches top spot in the AFC South. The Jaguars have won seven straight, which includes a 25-3 road victory over the Titans. Additionally, Jacksonville has an average margin of victory of 17 points while allowing the lowest EPA per play during the seven-game heater. I also value Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranking fourth in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for an impressive 8.2 yards per attempt over the stretch.

The Texans have secured a playoff spot and can even still win the AFC South if the Jaguars shit the bed versus the Titans. While that scenario seems a little farfetched, Houston can still earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18.

The Texans are at home to the Colts, who could be starting Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback in the finale. Either way, this Texans defense is a tall task for any QB. 

Houston has given up more than 21 points only once on its eight-game run and has taken down some of the NFL best quarterbacks along the way. C. J. Stroud and the offense do their best work inside NRG Stadium, where Houston averages 6.2 points more than on the road.  

This spread sits short of the key number of -10 at some shops while other books are already dealing the Texans as high as -10.5 in Week 18. Get that -9.5 now.

This spread sits a little higher than it should in my opinion, mainly because Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott told reporters he wanted to suit up in Week 18 – despite the Cowboys having nothing to gain.

Prescott’s plans could vary from what the front office wants, especially considering the gruesome history of this MetLife Stadium turf. Dallas could already be without RB Javonte Williams (shoulder) and TE Jake Ferguson (calf), who left last Thursday’s game with injuries. That’s not only two top weapons but big parts of the Cowboys’ pass protection.

Prescott took a pounding in the Xmas Day win over Washington, absorbing six sacks and 11 QB hits. He now faces a Giants pass rush that scored four sacks in Week 17 and injured Raiders QB Geno Smith (ankle) in the process. New York has 13 total sacks in its last four games.

If Dak is active, I don’t think it will be for more than a half of football. 

The Under is 4-3 in Bengals' games with Burrow at QB and 4-2 when the Browns are road underdogs.

The Bengals are 5-2 ATS when Joe Burrow is under center.

The Dolphins defense is so bad and the Patriots offense is so good that it won't matter how much the Dolphins can score for this Over to hit. 

Mike McDaniels' Dolphins teams have always struggled in cold weather and the Patriots need this win to try and get the 1-seed in the AFC. 

Not only have the Jets lost by an average of 26.8 points during their four-game losing skid, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in all four while allowing the highest offensive success rate and dropback EPA per play. Now, New York heads to Highmark Stadium to face a Buffalo offense looking to get back on track in Week 18. The Bills also have an outside shot of improving their postseason seed, too.