NFL Picks

Detroit’s pass protection is in pieces with a short week to get right before playing on Thursday. Quarterback Jared Goff has been feeling “Pacino vs. De Niro” levels of heat, suffering eight sacks and constant hounding over the past three games. The Cowboys enter Week 14 with one the premier pass rushes in the NFL, sitting No. 1 in pressure rate per dropback, QB hits and QB hurries. Dallas has collected eight sacks during its current three-game winning streak, including three on Patrick Mahomes last Thursday, and has really found its footing on that side of the football since a fateful Week 10 bye week. Not only are the Cowboys causing chaos for opposing passers, but the run stop has benefitted from the additions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson as well as the return of LB DeMarvion Overshown. Dallas sits 10th in EPA allowed per carry and seventh in opponent success rate per run since Week 11.

These teams rank second and third in scoring, and both defenses have glaring weaknesses that should set up plenty of sustained drives and big-play opportunities. Detroit can exploit Dallas’ issues against the run and on third downs, while the Cowboys’ passing attack should thrive against a Lions defense that’s getting carved up. With these defenses ranking 27th and 30th in red-zone touchdown percentage, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Baltimore had rolled off five consecutive wins while ranking eighth in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, so I like the Ravens to respond in a pivotal AFC North game against the visiting Steelers. Pittsburgh has dropped five of seven, and quarterback Aaron Rogders hasn’t connected for multiple touchdown passes since Week 8. The Ravens roll at M&T Bank Stadium and cover the number in Week 14.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.0% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5. . The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.

Atlanta has played some softer foes in recent weeks, facing New York, New Orleans, and Carolina. Now, the Falcons take on one of the best two-way teams in the league. Seattle feasted on the Vikings’ shaky QB situation this weekend, creating a ton of chaos in the pocket and upping its stock as the premier stop unit in the land. That vaunted pass rush will be chasing down the aging legs of Kirk Cousins in Week 14. The Seahawks opened with the half point hook on the touchdown, which may scare off some. But -8 is an undervalued key number in football betting these days and this spread could quickly move to -8.5 to -9 considering the contrast in public opinion.

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has earned 26.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Seattle's offense near the end zone in this contest at 33.4%.. After totaling 73.0 air yards per game last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gotten better this year, currently pacing 112.0 per game.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 89.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 57.6.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.. Tony Pollard's 13.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 18.1.. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cleveland's LB corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

When the Dolphins take the field at a chilly MetLife Stadium on Sunday, it will be the team’s first true road game since October 26. The Jets have quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL. New York is 3-2 SU in its last five games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in that span. Even in the two losses, New York was behind by only one score in the fourth quarter versus the Ravens and Patriots. Gang Green’s defense has taken some time to adjust to injuries, trades, and Aaron Glenn’s new schemes this season, but they’ve consistently been stiff against the run. That’s especially true since the Week 10 bye, ranked 12th in opponent success rate per run. Bottling up Miami RB De’Von Achane is priority No. 1 this Sunday. 

This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has allowed the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 7.92 yards.. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula and has limited mobility, but the team really has no other option at QB. And opponents know it. We’ve seen recent foes go all in on stuffing RB Jonathan Taylor, forcing Jones to beat them through the air. He’s completed just 58% of his passes for 181 and 201 yards with four touchdowns the pass two games – both losses. The Jaguars will test Jones’ mobility with one of the best pass rushes in the league. Jacksonville may only have 24 sacks but is Top 10 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, as well as QB hits and hurries. All that chaos has generated 20 takeaways, including 13 interceptions. Jacksonville definitely has shortcomings and its recent success (winning four of its last five) has been against some softer opponents. That said, four of those five games were on the road and the Jags get to host a Colts team that is 1-3 SU in its last four away games. 

The Jaguars offense is improving with every week, while the Colts have been strong offensively all season

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (270.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.. The Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, giving up 9.38 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. With an elite 97.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 10.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.. This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded a massive 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus WRs this year, surrendering 9.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projections to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.3.

The Raiders have been outscored by double-digits in three consecutive games and have also lost six straight to drop to 2-10 on the season. Even worse, Las Vegas quarterback Geno Smith has been among the worst in the league during the stretch with a miniscule 6.2 yards per attempt and -0.147 EPA per play. Denver continues to send out a stingy defense allowing the fewest yards per play and fourth-fewest points per game. Of course, the Broncos have rolled off nine consecutive wins, too.

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football (63.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Broncos.. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.. The Raiders safeties project as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Jordan Love is positioned as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 67.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 81st percentile.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in football against the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 8.50 yards.. The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Last week, the Rams were 10.5-point road faves against a 6-6 Carolina Panthers team despite traveling to the Eastern Seaboard for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff. They ended up losing that game due to a couple of rare picks from Matthew Stafford, but that doesn't justify a shift to -8 this week with easier travel conditions against the 3-9 Cardinals. This is a Rams team that ranks second in the league in DVOA while the Cardinals rank 21st.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.9 total plays called: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Kyren Williams has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 11.2% this year, which puts him in the 87th percentile among RBs.. When talking about air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 97th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a staggering 7.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Oddsmakers continue to underestimate the Texans, who have the top-rated defense in the league in terms of EPA/play. With C.J. Stroud under center, the Texans also have a decent offense so long as they're playing against a defense that can't take advantage of their poor pass protection. With the Chiefs in the Bottom 10 in pressure rate and sacks, they won't force Stroud into bad decisions. I'm reluctant to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home, but the Chiefs tend to get off to slow starts, so I'll take the points with the Texans in the first half.  

Houston has held its last three foes to 19 points or less, including the Colts in Week 13. The Texans know this Andy Reid offensive all too well after losing 23-14 to Kansas City in the Divisional Round last January, despite checking Patrick Mahomes & Co. to just 212 total yards. As for the Houston offense, it has to come outside in the cold – not C.J. Stroud’s favorite setting – with Arrowhead Stadium expected to “feel like” 12 degrees for Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs’ scoring has sputtered too, with a lack of explosive plays and the offense stalling out in the red zone. Kansas City was able to put up some points indoor against a shoddy Dallas defense, but Houston is a different beast. I’m betting the Under 43.5 now with some sportsbooks already sliding below the key number and this total likely to drop closer to 41 once weather reports make the rounds.

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.