NFL Picks

The Titans have given up 15 touchdowns to opposing RBs in 11 games this season.

The Jaguars have notched an eye-popping 113 pressures over the past four outings, and it's led to opposing quarterbacks scrambling for 20+ yards in three straight games. 

Cam Ward spent the bye week looking at how he could use his legs to extend plays and create positive situations, and as such he's rushed for 30+ in the two games since.

Tennessee has one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL, and the Titans are likely to be behind the chains often as well as behind on the scoreboard. That will lead to an elevated number of passing downs, and should allow for him to easily clear his low rushing total. 

Even if the Jets aren’t putting together much on offense, they can still move the ball with Breece Hall as they’ve demonstrated in recent weeks. The Falcons shouldn’t offer much resistance, giving up a hefty 4.6 yards per tote and a good deal of short passes, and the Jets should control this one as a result.

Breece Hall has rushed for 766 yards this season on 4.6 yards per carry. He'll churn out yards as long as he's not facing a top run defense or the Jets are forced to abandon the run due to game script. On Sunday, Hall and Jets host the Falcons who can't stop the run and will likely be unable to build a big lead. This should be a competitive game with the Jets installed as 2.5-point home underdogs against Atlanta who has lost five of its last six. The Falcons are 28th in the league in success rate against the run while ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (133.1).

Kyren Williams has scored more first touchdowns than any other player in the NFL this season with four in 11 games.

The Panthers have attempted just 28 deep passes this season — the second-lowest number in the NFL. Bryce Young is just 24th in the league in passing grade at PFF and he has completed a pass of more than 30 yards just twice in his last nine games. He'll have a tough time going deep against a Rams defense that is second in the league in dropback EPA. In addition, the Panthers will be starting fringe NFL players at center and right guard due to injuries. With that banged-up offensive line against a strong Rams pass rush, Young won't have time to throw deep even if he wants to.

Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane has been getting better as the season moves along, and he’s coming off his two best games of the year.

He ran for two touchdowns and 174 yards on 22 carries against the Bills before the bye, and 120 yards on 21 carries last week against the Commanders.

The New Orleans Saints have allowed 123.5 rushing yards per game this season, and 80 isn't too much to ask for from Achane. 

I’m taking on a bit of risk with Devin Neal, who’s been limited in practice, but with Alvin Kamara missing Wednesday’s session and Neal playing 86% of the snaps after Kamara exited last week, Neal could function as an RB1 at an RB2 price. If Kamara sits, this TD number could close around +150 to +160. If Kamara plays, it probably drifts to +400 or higher. Taysom Hill is always a threat to steal a score, but his price is too short to justify. Miami isn’t an intimidating matchup this late in the season in Miami, making Neal worth the early grab.

Brissett has passed for no fewer than 258 passing yards in all six starts this season, and he's hit the Over on this line four times.

There are plenty of moving parts in this matchup with Marvin Harrison potentially returning, Baker Mayfield’s status uncertain, and injuries piling up in the Arizona backfield. Emari Demercado missed Thursday’s practice with an ankle issue, and Trey Benson doesn’t appear close to returning. That leaves Bam Knight (+125) and Michael Carter (+210). The offense has moved the ball well under Jacoby Brissett, and both backs played roughly 50% of the snaps last week. They each saw two carries inside the 5-yard line, which pushes me toward the longer price on Michael Carter in what’s otherwise a coin-flip TD spot.

The Browns have covered in all four home games this season

Shadeur Sanders isn’t the worst quarterback in football, and Harold Fannin looked like his go-to target last week against the Raiders. The rookie tight end led the team with six targets and caught four for 40 yards. Outside of Quinshon Judkins, he’s the only Cleveland player I trust in Week 13. The Browns ran exclusively in the red zone last week, but they’re likely facing a more negative script on Sunday. Fannin has been as short as +300 for a TD this season, but with this matchup and quarterback play, I’d only take it down to +350.

The Texans are great against both play action and at not allowing yards after catch and that is where Tyler Warren typically thrives. 

Taylor leads the NFL with 1,159 rushing yards but there are a few reasons to fade him on Sunday. He's been held to less than 60 rushing yards in two of his last three games with the Chiefs and Steelers shutting him down. With the exception of a Week 2 clash against Denver, most of Taylor's big games have come against bad defenses. The Texans have a strong D that allows just 73.5 rushing yards per game to running backs — the fifth-lowest number in the NFL. Most of Taylor's yardage has come on duo run plays (7.7 yards per rush) and outside zone runs (5.9 ypa). Houston allows just 3.4 yards per carry on duo runs while allowing 3.7 yards per outside zone run.

Jefferson is a huge price to open the scoring and the QB change in Minnesota could unlock him

If conversations had taken a different turn earlier in the year, Sam Darnold would have been on the opposite sideline on Sunday instead of marshalling the Seattle offense.

Darnold has done little to fan the flames as he prepares to face his former team, but it feels safe to assume he’ll have a little extra motivation heading into this Week 13 clash. With that in mind, I’m taking the Over on this passing yards total, and Darnold has breezed past this number in six of his last eight contests.

The Bills rank 30th in rushing yards allowed and 31st in yards per attempt allowed and Jaylen Warren has hit this number in five of his last six games. 

The Bills have the best pass defense in the NFL and they do not allow yards after the catch while Darnell Washington lives off getting yards after the catch and this is a bad matchup for him.

Herbert has actually cashed the Over in passing TDs in three of his last five appearances, and two of those were at home against Minnesota and Indianapolis. Overall, Herbert has 12 touchdowns in six home games compared to just seven in five road contests.

Tyler Lockett has averaged four catches over his last three games and led Vegas with four grabs for 62 yards last week, despite his quarterback taking 10 sacks against a tough Cleveland defense. Things get easier this week as the Raiders play indoors for the third straight time, this one against the Chargers. He’s now four games into his Raiders stint and saw a massive jump in usage last week, going from 28 snaps in Week 11 to 60. A big part of that is his new role in 2-WR sets, something he wasn’t included in previously. Books have been slow to react to his expanded role and the pass-heavy game scripts Vegas keeps finding itself in. There’s some ladder potential here, but his yardage looks like the best angle to attack for the aggressive Alt-Over bets.

Nix has cashed the Over in passing yards in three of his last five outings, and the Commanders are a nightmare defensively. They rank 29th in passing yards, allowing 249.5 per contest. 

Franklin has seen 14 red-zone targets this year, good for 10th in the league. He has double the targets of the next-highest Broncos player (Evan Engram, 6). 

Jaxson Dart returns from concussion protocol after missing two games in which Jameis Winston led the offense to 47 points. Most of that scoring came early, and with Dart back, the offense may start slower. He had averaged 45 rushing yards over his last seven games, but his scrambling should be limited coming off injury, and he’ll be surrounded by backups at most positions. New England scored 26 points last week despite red-zone struggles, and OC Josh McDaniels hinted at more creativity. The Patriots also rank fifth in first-half scoring. The Giants’ defense is banged up, with Dexter Lawrence and both starting linebackers unlikely to play, offsetting New England’s O-line issues. With Dart easing in and New York’s offense likely muted, the Patriots should finish drives against the league’s 31st-ranked red-zone defense.

Only the Steelers allow more receiving yards to opposing wide receivers than the Giants, who have also conceded 12 WR TDs which ranks as tied for the eighth most in football. It also helps that it's Drake Maye and a handful of high-priced WRs on Monday night. It was Mack Hollins who had the most WR targets (six) in Week 12 vs. the Bengals and his 78% route share paced all New England offensive players. He is also tied for the WR lead in RZ targets since Week 9, as Stefon Diggs' usage is oddly trending down. Do I feel confident with a Mack Hollins TD to wrap up Week 13? Not really, but the usage and price are the most important things here. The matchup doesn't get any easier either. I'd play this to +260. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.