NFL Picks

Dowdle has rushed for 1066 yards this year but most of that damage came earlier in the season when he rumbled for 130+ yards three times in a five-week stretch. He has rushed for less than 55 yards in five of his last seven games, averaging 47.3 rushing yards per game on just 3.4 yards per carry over that span. The Buccaneers are fifth in the NFL in defensive rush success rate and held Dowdle to 29 yards on nine rush attempts when these NFC South rivals clashed two weeks ago.

Dowdle injured his toe in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he has missed practice on the short week. If Dowdle is hampered, the Panthers need Hubbard to step up in this do-or-die matchup.

Head coach Dave Canales didn’t hide his faith in Hubbard, calling him a stud and a leader on the team when asked about the veteran running back. “I love Chuba,” Canales told the media. “Going to give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”

Hubbard’s Week 18 projections range from 27 rushing yards to 34 yards, with most models north of 30 yards on the ground. Given Dowdle’s injury and Canales’ promise of more touches, I believe the ceiling is high for Carolina’s Canadian-born running back in Week 18.

Jauan Jennings has scored in seven of his last eight games, including five in a row, and has six touchdowns in his last five games.

Both he and Christian McCaffrey rank in the Top 10 in red zone targets. But he's scored seven times from just 11 catches inside the 20. And with CMC and George Kittle occupying the focus of defenders, he should get a couple one-on-one matchups from which to capitalize.

Zach Charbonnet has split carries with Kenneth Walker III, but not when it comes to the red zone. Charbonnet ranks seventh in the NFL in both carries and touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line, and has three touchdown runs in his last two games.

The 49ers gave up two rushing touchdowns to the Bears a week ago, and rank 21st in EPA/rush. They also will have to key on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and AJ Barner, opening up a bit more room for the back to operate.

Charbonnet has touchdowns in four of his last six games and will be called upon yet again to cash in near the goal line. 

The Packers have already locked down the No. 7 seed in the NFC, and they will sit Jordan Love here as he continues to recover from a concussion. The Vikings, meanwhile, are out of the playoff picture despite their four-game winning run, and JJ McCarthy is expected to play after recovering from an injury.

Clayton Tune has little NFL experience, and I’m not exactly expecting him to light it up offensively. McCarthy hasn’t played in a couple of weeks as well, and he’s been relatively inconsistent when available. Both starting running backs are also sidelined, as Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones are injured. Hammer the Under here. I simply do not see this being a high-scoring affair. 

It's been a strong season for Travis Etienne, who has 13 touchdowns, of which seven were rushing and six were in the passing game. He’s hit real form in the past month, too, with six touchdowns in that span. He’s scored the first touchdowns in three games this season, more than any other Jaguars player, and is a heavy favorite here.

This number is over priced because of a contract incentive for Tony Pollard, but this Jags defense is incredible against the run and needs to win to win the division. 

The Texans only scored 20 points in their last matchup with the Colts and Indy has held their opponent to less points in each divisional rematch this season. 

Houston still has plenty to play for. The Texans remain alive in the division race, and even if that falls short, holding onto the five seed is important to avoid a first-round matchup against a 12-win team. While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel scored last week, their usage has been volatile and difficult to rely on. Nico Collins remains the clear focal point of this offense and now draws a favorable setup against an Indianapolis team starting a late-round rookie quarterback and playing for nothing. That opens the door for short fields and extra scoring chances. Collins has been priced much shorter than this at points throughout the season, making this number attractive. I’d buy him to +140.

Despite the poor defense and propensity to hit the Over, I’m taking the Under. Dallas ranks fourth in scoring offense at 28.4 points per game, but New York is just 21st at 21.7 points. Thousand-yard receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and reliable tight end Theo Johnson will be out, and even against a porous Dallas defense, Jaxson Dart will have a tough time moving the ball with such limited options. On the other side of the field, the Cowboys’ running backs are banged up, and the team could be down to third-stringer Jaydon Blue leading the backfield. It’s unclear how much the starters will play for either team in this one, and it’s in the Giants’ best interest to lose. I won’t bet on a high-scoring matchup.

The Giants finally got the passing game going last week, and Wan’Dale Robinson was the clear focal point. He caught 11 passes on 14 targets, while no other New York receiver saw more than two looks. Robinson now sits at 92 catches and nine touchdowns on the season, and even with a rib injury, the usage is impossible to ignore. With milestones within reach and a favorable matchup against the Dallas defense, this price is too generous. I’m buying Robinson down to +150/+155.

There's no Fannin or Njoku, and with the Bengals allowing 16 TDs to TEs this season, it makes third string TE Whiteheart the value play.

Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders is still adjusting to NFL speed and is without his top target, tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Cincinnati’s offense has shown flashes, but this is still an elite Browns defense playing with extra motivation: putting Myles Garrett in position to chase the NFL sack record. With cold temperatures around 39°F and four of the last five Battle of Ohio matchups staying Under the total, this sets up as another defensive slugfest, making the Under the clear way to play it.

The New Orleans Saints might be eliminated from the playoffs but young players like Audric Estime will be heavily motivated to prove themselves and earn a larger role moving forward. With Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller sidelined by injuries, Estime made his first career start last week and rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. He'll be given another opportunity to carry the load on Sunday against a Falcons squad that can't stop the run. Atlanta is 26th in the league in defensive rush EPA and rushing yards allowed per game (127.4). 

At age 37, Cousins has shown over the last few weeks that there’s still a little left in the tank. Whether Sunday is his last game as a Falcon or not, look for him to finish the season with a bang. Cousins found a rhythm in the Week 15 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with 373 passing yards and three touchdowns, and threw for two more scores 10 days later against the Arizona Cardinals. With Drake London and Kyle Pitts both listed as questionable but expected to play, I’ll take these plus odds for 2+ TD passes from Cousins this weekend. 

Week 18 is the final chance for some players to hit contract incentives. Patriots TE Hunter Henry has logged 55 receptions this year and will earn a $250,000 bonus if he hits the 60-catch milestone. The Pats can secure a higher playoff seed with a win and have confirmed that MVP front-runner Drake Maye will start at QB on Sunday against the Dolphins. Miami is 31st in the league in defensive dropback success rate and ranks 30th in receptions allowed to tight ends (102). 

The Patriots’ defense isn’t elite, but they’re still doing a good job of keeping the points against them down, and with Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers under center, the same should happen here. 

On the offensive side of the ball, this team is a juggernaut. The offense ranks sixth in DVOA, and with Drake Maye an MVP candidate, they are tough to beat.

Strong offensive line play is at the heart of it, and they’re finding ways to put up big numbers, and are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NFL with 28.3 points per game.

With the Patriots needing the result here and playing on their home field, this should be a cover for Mike Vrabel’s team.

This Arizona Cardinals team has had poor play and have lost eight games in a row. They’ve covered the spread just once in their past eight games. The Rams, despite a poor couple of weeks, are still tied top for covering the spread in the most games, 11, this season. Even if the Los Angeles Rams are resting players, there's a strong chance for them to cover the spread at SoFi.

The Rams are 11-5 ATS this season and know a win could help them get a better playoff matchup in the WC Round.

Dan Campbell will try to get his team up for this game, but I’m not sure how effective that will be, how much his stars will ultimately play, or how much it even matters if the Lions are at 100% on Sunday. Right now, Chicago is the better team. With a small spread at home, I’m taking the Bears to cover.

Olamide Zaccheaus was a late scratch last week due to illness and should be good to go by Sunday. Jahdae Walker absorbed most of his work, running routes on 71% of dropbacks and finishing with 30 yards and a red-zone target. If Zaccheaus returns, he’s expected to reclaim a larger role, especially with Rome Odunze potentially missing his fifth straight game. Chicago is still playing for the No. 2 seed, and Ben Johnson gets another shot at his former team. The Bears torched Detroit in Week 2, hanging 52 points while Chicago WRs piled up 234 yards and two TDs. There’s some risk the illness lingers, but with TD prices already moving on Luther Burden and Coltson Loveland, this is a spot worth monitoring closely through the week.

The Eagles are expected to roll with backups, and with Dallas Goedert limited in practice, Grant Calcaterra is in line for TE1 snaps and a potential bump in passing-game usage. Backup quarterbacks and tight ends are a profitable combination in these late-season spots, especially with so much uncertainty across the slate. Projected starter Tanner McKee isn’t shy about throwing the ball either, dropping back 41 times in a similar Week 18 situation last season.

The Commanders should struggle to move the ball against the Birds, who held Washington to 10 points until the final two minutes a few weeks ago. They only had 90 rushing yards and 130 passing yards in that game as well.

The Birds are resting up for the playoffs, and the Commanders can’t wait for the offseason. There should be a distinct lack of scoring on Sunday in Philadelphia.

Buffalo is going to tread lightly with James Cook and Josh Allen in Week 18, both TEs questionable coming in, and that means Johnson becomes much more involved, especially in the red zone. He’s a threat on the ground and through the air and with Trubisky potentially taking over under center, the Bills passing game will get simple. Jets defense is a dud and one of the worst RZ defenses in the NFL and New York has allowed 25 total TDs to RBs – rushing and receiving – which is most in the NFL. 

The Bills are still playing for seeding and will play their last game at Highmark Stadium, but there’s a real chance some starters get limited or rested, which makes TD props in this spot a bit risky, especially with a late kickoff. That said, Khalil Shakir has plenty to play for. He’s one TD away from unlocking a $150,000 bonus and draws about as soft a matchup as it gets. The Jets have lost four straight games by 20-plus points, and Shakir remains Buffalo’s highest-volume pass catcher. He should see enough run to contribute early or be given a chance to hit the bonus, even if Josh Allen is limited. There’s risk betting it early, but the angle makes sense.

If anyone is going to score for the Chiefs on Sunday, then it’s Travis Kelce, in what could be his last game for the franchise. He’s scored five touchdowns this season but also leads the team in red zone targets since Oladokun has been under center. 

The Raiders ownership have made it very clear that the number one pick is their number one priority, and there's no reason to think they'll keep this game close enough to possibly win it. Geno Smith joins Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby on the sidelines, and while the Chiefs are shorthanded as well they've played better of late. They gave the Broncos all they could handle last week, while the Giants trounced the Raiders. There's nothing for the Raiders to play for, and their players surely know they won't be given a winning gameplan. I'll take the team still competing to cover the spread. 

The Broncos are great at defending quarterback scrambles and Lance has not run much in his limited action this season. 

This number is just too high despite the positive game script, as he has only hit this number twice all season. 

Zay Flowers is the Ravens best receiver by a wide margin. The speedster leads the team in targets (112), receptions (82) and receiving yards (1078). The O/U for his receiving yards is set at 60.5, a number he has surpassed in 11 of 16 games this season. The Steelers are 27th in the league in receiving yards allowed to WRs. When these teams previously clashed last month, Flowers reeled in eight of 11 targets for 124 yards. The Ravens have been heavily reliant on Derrick Henry over the last month but with Pittsburgh stacking the box to stop the run, expect Flowers to find openings downfield. 

The majority of Aaron Rodgers' passes have been underneath throws to running backs and tight ends. That could be even more prominent in this game with Pittsburgh's top deep threat D.K. Metcalf serving a suspension. Baltimore is 26th in the league in pass DVOA against running backs and has allowed the third-most receptions per game (5.1) to the position. RB Kenneth Gainwell leads the Steelers with 65 receptions this year. He was limited to three catches last week but had eclipsed 4.5 receptions in five of the previous six games.