NFL Picks

Williams is dealing with a neck injury coming out of the Chargers game but even before that, you could see his production slow in the second half of the schedule. We’re getting more carries from Malik Davis and the team will be kicking the tires on its second and third stringers in the final games of the year. Williams has gone Over the 75-yard bar just once in the past four games and a short week to get healthy could have Dallas spreading the love on the run this Xmas Day.

Marcus Mariota injured his right hand in Saturday’s loss to Philadelphia, requiring stitches, and is listed as day-to-day on the short week while also dealing with a quads injury. With starter Jayden Daniels shut down, the Commanders would turn to journeyman Josh Johnson under center.

Dallas lugs a three-game slide to the nation’s capital, most recently getting blasted by the L.A. Chargers at home on Sunday. The Cowboys did beat up on the Commanders in Week 7, winning a 44-22 shootout at home.

If and when Mariota is ruled out, his spread will jump to the key number of -6 and with no shortage of support for Dallas, I could see this closing -6.5 come Thursday. 

The Cowboys can put up points against this terrible Washington defense, which is something the Commanders might not be able to do with a QB3 at the wheel and a banged-up offensive line in front of him.

Gibbs has been one of the best receiving RB in the NFL in the second half of the season, and as his rushing numbers drop, his receiving output has spiked. He will be busy on Xmas, with this banged-up Lions o-line trying to keep the Vikings blitz at bay. Gibbs will be the quick release for Goff, especially with the TE position limited and St. Brown limping into Thursday. He’s drawn seven or more targets in five of his last six games and gone for 33 or more in four of those outings. I expect the Lions to have the football a lot, given the state of the Vikings offense right now.

The Vikings have a QB question on Christmas Day, with starter J.J. McCarthy leaving Week 16’s win over Giants with a throwing hand injury. Minnesota is slated for one of the December 25 games, leaving a very small window for “Nine” to heal up. His X-rays were negative, but the first-year starter wasn’t able to hold a football. And it’s not just McCarthy hurting heading into the holiday. Center Ryan Kelly and running back Jordan Mason are dealing with ailments. The Lions, on the other hand, pissed away a Week 16 home game to the Steelers. That puts their postseason chances in dire jeopardy. Detroit needs help from the other NFC contenders to qualify for the tournament and can’t afford another loss. This spread opened Lions -5.5 at Minnesota and the vig on that spread is climbing, indicating a potential move to the key number of -6 or higher.

Franklin was Bo Nix’s top target for most of the season, but Pat Bryant started to dig into that target share over the last four games. Bryant suffered a scary injury last week and is unlikely to suit up on Xmas Day. That should pump Franklin’s number up. He’s recorded four or more catches in six of the last eight, including the previous two games. He caught four of eight balls for 84 yards vs Kansas City back in November. You can find Over 3.5 receptions for Franklin as pricy as -106, so shop around for the best return.

This sets up as a solid bounce-back spot for both defenses. The Chiefs are allowing just 15 points per game at home and should have their foot on the gas in their home finale. Denver’s defense is also primed to rebound after an uncharacteristic outing. They rank at or near the top of the NFL in many key defensive categories and should be in bully mode against this extremely watered-down Kansas City offense. Three straight Chiefs’ games have stayed below this mark, with those games seeing an average combined score of just 31.3.

The Texans have won seven in a row with three of those win coming as underdogs. They lead the league in defensive EPA and ppg allowed (16.6). Their ability to bring pressure off the edge with Danielle Hunter (13 sacks) and Will Anderson (11.5 sacks) will cause problems for L.A., which has struggled in pass protection with both stud tackles on the IR. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud and this balanced Houston offense should have some success moving the ball against a Chargers defense that looks fraudulent despite not allowing many points in recent weeks. The Bolts rank 22nd in yards allowed per rush (4.4) and also sit in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate.

This battle between the Bolts and Texans will feel like a playoff game and what do we often see in high-stakes showdowns like that: QBs on the run. Herbert has the wheels and is coming off a eight-carry, 42-yard rushing day versus Dallas. Houston can get after the QB and as allowed some bigger rushing days to mobile QBs, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix – all rushed for 20 yards or more versus the Texans. Yards will be hard to come by for both teams and Herbert will have to pick them up when he can. Some projections sit as high as 27 yards rushing for this Saturday matchup.

Both teams could be missing their franchise QBs with Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love exiting in Week 16 with injuries. Even if they suit up, they'll be less than full strength and face solid stop units. The Ravens struggled on defense at the start of the season due to the absence of LB Roquan Smith and multiple injuries on the line and in the secondary. However, they've gotten many of those injured players back and rank fifth in the league in defense success rate since Week 6. Meanwhile, the Packers are seventh in the league in defensive rush success rate and fifth in yards allowed per carry (4.0) which will help them slow down a Baltimore attack that relies heavily on Derrick Henry. 

Let’s not get cute. Derrick Henry Over 74.5 yards rushing. It’s December and the only guy who might deliver more than Santa this month is Derrick Henry. For his career, the bruising back finds another gear in December and is doing so once again in 2025. So far this month he’s rushed for 94, 100 and 128 yards. Whether Lamar is in or not, Henry is going to get the touches against a Packers defense that has been pushed around on the ground in the second half of the sked. Sixth highest success rate allowed per run since Week 11 and has given up 119 rushing yards or more in three of the last four outings, including 150 from the Bears last weekend.

The Dolphins offense is much more versatile with Quinn Ewers under center. Before benching Tua, Miami was actively trying to keep the ball out of his hands. Ewers, however, threw for 260 yards last week – mark Tua had passed only twice all season. Tampa’s defense is dreadful and this once mighty run-stop unit is broken. Achane goes big. Ewers stretches the field. And the Bucs will be scoreboard watching. They could think about pulling their starters in the second half should they be up big and Carolina be down to Seattle, protecting themselves for a Week 18 NFC South title game.

At the present time, the 4th-least pass-heavy team in the league (56.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 123.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.. The Miami O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Right now, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.03 seconds per play.. This year, the porous Patriots defense has yielded a colossal 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.

The Over is 5-2 in games in which the Steelers are the road team and with such a low total, we can see both teams score enough to cover.

The Steelers are 3-4 ATS on the road this season and 1-2 ATS when they’re road favorites. So we're taking an improving Browns.

You’re going to give me a +120 ATTD return on the best TE in the league against the worst defense when it comes to defending tight ends? I’ll bite. Cincy has allowed 15 scores to the position. McBride has nine TDs in his last 10 games. This game has the highest total on the Week 17 board, so expect plenty of passing (from the two highest passing rates in the league) and points.

Not only have the Cardinals dropped seven straight, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in six of those games. It’s been a bit of a different story for the Bengals, too. Cincy has covered the number in four of the past five, and the Bengals are 2-2 outright since star quarterback Joe Burrow returned. Arizona has also allowed an average of 34.7 points per game during the losing streak while surrendering the fourth-highest EPA per play, so I’m expecting another big game from Burrow on Sunday. Additionally, the Bengals have also shown more bite on defense since Burrow’s returned, with Cincy allowing the 11th-lowest EPA per play compared to the third-highest mark through the four games prior.

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.5% pass rate.. The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Titans this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).. Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Saints, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.. Opposing teams have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 186.0 adjusted yards per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.. The Saints pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.32 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-fewest in football.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Over is 6-2 since Jacksonville's bye week, in large part due to the offensive explosion led by Trevor Lawrence. Liam Coen is a playcalling wizard, and it's led to the Jaguars putting up points by the bunches, averaging 33 points a game since the bye.

The Colts defense is riddled with injuries, and just allowed the 49ers to cover the total by themselves on Monday night. And with another total sitting in the 40s, I'm taking the Over yet again.

The Colts must win this game and get a ton of help to reach the playoffs, so they'll go down swinging until the end. Jacksonville should get well into the 30s yet again, while I expect the Colts to get enough done through the air to push this total into the 50s. 

The Jaguars have covered the spread in six straight games, and have done so by an average of nearly 17 points per game. I'm expecting the same on Sunday against a Colts team that just got destroyed by Brock Purdy and the 49ers.

Jacksonville's offense is red-hot, and the defense is getting stops and forcing turnovers when it matters. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 12 touchdowns vs zero picks in his last four, and the Jaguars run defense is one of the best in the NFL.

The Colts will struggle to get the ground game going, and Philip Rivers will be under pressure from this Jacksonville pass rush. Not only should the Jaguars cover, but I like them to win by at least two touchdowns.

The Seahawks are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.. The Seahawks have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 31.6 passes in this contest, on balance: the 7th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

The Seahawks are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.. The Seahawks have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.. Carolina's defense profiles as the 8th-best in football this year as it relates to forcing interceptions, totaling 0.87 per game.

The Eagles didn't pull away from the Washington Commanders in Week 16 until third-string QB Josh Johnson entered the game, and Philly ranked 27th in offensive DVOA while generating the ninth-lowest EPA per play over the prior six weeks. So, with the Bills rattling off four consecutive wins and sporting a 6-1 record at Highmark Stadium, I don't think the Eagles can put enough points on the board to cover the number in Week 17.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 51.9% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see just 124.4 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. Khalil Shakir's 3.9 adjusted catches per game this year marks an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 5.1 figure.. This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded a paltry 57.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-best rate in football.. The Eagles linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

These are two of the better offense in the second half of the season, sitting Top 10 in EPA per play and EPA per dropback since Week 9. The Bears have put up points against some tough defensive foes in recent weeks. Played the Packers twice, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. The last time Chicago took on a stop unit as soft as San Fran’s it hung 47 points on the Bengals. The 49ers have put up points as well, with 26 or more in six of their last seven outings – going 5-2 O/U in that span. They just watched the “Ghost of Xmas Past” – AKA Philip Rivers throw for 277 yards and two tuddies.

The Falcons aren’t going to the tournament but continue to battle with veteran QB Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta has won back-to-back road games and Monday will be just its second homestand in the past six weeks. 

Los Angeles is a much stiffer test defensively than the Falcons’ recent foes but this team has a bevy of offensive weapons, especially with the return of WR Drake London, and head coach Raheem Morris could be coaching for his job on MNF.

This spread opened Atlanta +7.5 and jumped to +8.5, which is an underrated key number in football betting. I like the fight in the Falcons enough to take the pile of points with the home side.