NFL Picks

The Rams have been an incredible late-season bet, going 17–3 ATS in their last 20 games played in the month of December and have continued that form again this season. They’ve also owned this matchup, covering 11 of the last 14 meetings with Seattle, including five straight in Seattle, while consistently giving Sam Darnold problems. With Darnold’s play cooling off and questions lingering about his confidence in high-profile spots, this matchup once again sets up favorably for Los Angeles.

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Rams defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.. Sam Darnold profiles as one of the most accurate QBs in football this year with a terrific 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 77th percentile.

Philly faces another soft defense in Week 16, and I’m confident the Eagles can put enough points on the board while holding the Commanders in check to cover the number. Washington has allowed the seventh-most points per game while surrendering the second-highest EPA and second-most yards per play, and the Commanders also entered Week 15 ranked 27th in defensive DVOA.

Beating up on the Raiders only carries so much weight but Philadelphia’s one-sided win over Las Vegas was exactly what the Eagles needed. Philadelphia put up 31 points, 27 first downs, and 387 yards of offense. Now it heads to the nation’s capital with momentum for the first time in weeks, laying just shy of the key number of six against the Commanders in a Saturday standalone game.  Washington beat New York despite being outgained and allowing 22 first downs to the G-Men. Six of its 29 points came from a punt return touchdown, making an otherwise ho-hum offensive effort look better than it was. Philadelphia is hoping to get two key bodies back in the trenches with OT Lane Johnson and DT Jalen Carter sitting out Sunday’s win. Any positive updates around those players will push this spread higher, so I’m snatching Eagles -5.5 now.

The Under is 5-2 in the Bills' road games and 3-1 in Browns home games as underdog

The Bills are inconsistent and have struggled against top rated defenses

Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes. 

The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 126.6 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The model projects Bryce Young to throw 32.0 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect Dak Prescott to throw 36.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Dak Prescott's 273.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a material improvement in his passing talent over last season's 244.0 rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. In racking up a monstrous 31.3 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) for this stat.. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.

Each of the last four Giants games have gone Over the total. 

The Giants are 0-3 against the spread this season in games where they were either favored or underdogs by less than three points.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Gardner Minshew is predicted by our trusted projection set to average the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.8. . The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.. This year, the poor Titans defense has surrendered a whopping 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst rate in the league.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.9%) to WRs this year (66.9%).

The Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville's last seven, and has hit in Denver's last three. And I love it to hit again here.

Jacksonville hasn’t been held under 25 points since the bye week, and Denver’s run defense has been leaky the past few weeks, and that will let the Jaguars move the ball. Add in Little’s leg and they should score anytime they get near midfield.

Nix won’t push the ball downfield like some teams do against the Jaguars, but Denver’s quick-pass scheme will help him keep drives alive and negate some of the pass rush ability of the Jaguars. He’ll also put together enough drives against a defense that struggles to get stops on third and five or less.

 

As long as I'm getting a flat three points, I'm taking the Jaguars to cover.

The Jags have covered in five straight, beating the spread by an average of 16.6 points in that span. Trevor Lawrence is red-hot, throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 18 touchdowns in the seven games since the bye week. 

The Broncos are showing weaknesses on defense of late, especially against the run. And their comeback over the Packers this weekend was aided by a rash of injuries to their opponent. Bo Nix can't consistently throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, which negates Jacksonville's biggest issue on defense.

The oddsmakers have been underestimating the Jaguars for some time now, and with Cam Little's "in the stadium" range and the thin Mile High air, I'll back the visitors to keep this one very close in what should be a tight affair. 

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are anticipated by the projection model to run 68.6 total plays in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are anticipated by the projection model to run 68.6 total plays in this contest: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.0.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.0.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

Derrick Henry has totaled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.2%) vs. RBs this year (85.2%).

The Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup QB Philip Rivers.. The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.

The Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup QB Philip Rivers.. The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.