College Football Picks

Largely out of necessity sparked by both incompetence and injury, West Virginia's offense changed halfway through the season. The Mountaineers still run the ball more than the vast majority of teams, but they dialed that back from an absolute extreme. As a result, Scotty Fox Jr. has cleared this modest prop in four straight games. In a blowout loss to Texas Tech, he should be chucking early and often.

Now that he's back in the lineup and healthy, Daniels provides great value for TD prop bettors given his production earlier in the year.

Sell-high spot against an elite Pitt run defense, where his low success rate, fragile role and likely pass-heavy Miami game script make this a good environment to fade him.

Turnovers have killed scoring chances for the Baylor Bears, who rank eighth in quality drive rate but just 82nd in points per quality drive. And that will be problematic against a Houston team that likes to control the game, ranking 26th in run rate and 39th in time of possession. 

Baylor’s defense ranks 95th in EPA/rush and 108th in success rate against the run. The Bears also sit 104th in available yard rate allowed, and 128th in rushing line yards given up per carry.

Conner Weigman will make plenty of plays against this poor Baylor defense, while the Bears will cough up the ball against a Houston secondary that ranks 44th in interception rate. Houston has the better defense and an offense that takes care of the football, and that will be the difference. 

Arizona ran for 174 yards on 34 attempts against Baylor, adjusting for sacks, a 5.1 yards per rush average. Oh, and four touchdowns. The Wildcats were the fourth opponent in five games to average more than five yards per rush against the Bears. Given Houston head coach Willie Fritz's insistence on running the ball at all times, Baylor may be the exact right opponent for the Cougars to end the regular season.

Injuries have taken a major toll on the Louisville offense, and the Cardinals have lost three straight after being in the discussion for an ACC Championship spot. The offense is missing its biggest playmakers, and the defense has worn down.

Now they face a Kentucky team that has the better quarterback and a strong defense. The Wildcats have a Top 25 run defense, and the offense ranks 44th in points per quality drive.

While the Cardinals have done decently against the run, they have one of the highest missed-tackle rates in college football. That sets Kentucky up to do what Mark Stoops loves most—grind out drives on offense and wind down the clock.

Kentucky must win this game to get to a bowl, and Louisville is reeling after going from being in the driver’s seat for the ACC to losing three straight. I’ll take the more motivated team getting plus-odds in a rivalry game as the Wildcats win the Governor’s Cup.

Michigan has struggled defending the pass all season, notably since its season opener against New Mexico. Ranking No. 84 in the country in defensive passing success rate, per CFB-graphs.com, is a worry when now facing the No. 1 passing offense in the country, be it via success rate or expected points added (EPA) per dropback.

At home, with a championship game appearance potentially on the line, and against a team they should be able to steamroll on offense, BYU shouldn’t allow this to be a close game for very long. I’m taking the Cougars to cover.

Oklahoma's top three running backs (Xavier Robinson, Tory Blaylock, Jovantae Barnes) are all struggling with various ailments, so Mateer will need to handle a bigger workload on the ground.

Arkansas has been brutally unlucky, despite losing nine straight. Five of its last eight defeats have been by a field goal or less.

This is where they finally get over the hump. Missouri is coming off a grueling defeat to Oklahoma, and Beau Pribula isn't fully healthy. He's struggled in the second half of the season, and Missouri's passing attack has struggled as a result.

The Hogs rank 18th in EPA/rush and 14th in success rate, and can put up points on a Missouri defense that ranks middle of the pack in PPQD. The Tigers also rank 68th in line yards allowed per carry, and have been hurt at times by scrambling quarterbacks.

This Arkansas team hasn't quit, and this could be Bobby Petrino's final game at the helm. I'll back the home team to finally get the win it's deserved for a while. 

Missouri under a field goal is a steal, with a top-15, schedule-controlling profile and an elite rush defense perfectly built to bottle up Arkansas' attack while Ahmad Hardy and the Tigers offense carve up a leaky Hogs defense over four quarters.

Vanderbilt still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff, but that requires a win over rival Tennessee. Both teams can score with the best of them, but the Commodores are the more battle-tested team and have done a better job of converting quality drives into points. Vandy should also be able to control the tempo of the game by wearing out a Tennessee defense that ranks 121st in success rate vs. the rush. I like the Commodores to pull off the upset.

Washington's offense has been held to 10 points or fewer in each of its three most difficult matchups of the year. Oregon's tough defense should limit UW's offense, leading to a lower-scoring rivalry game.

Oregon's freshman running back has been a touchdown machine, and is still providing great value even after he's scored in nearly every game this season.

UCLA has surrendered 48+ points to three of its last four opponents. USC's offense is a juggernaut (7.3 yards per play) ready to capitalize against a down rival.

Illinois has gone 5-1 against the spread as a multi-score favorite this season, living up to more expectations than perhaps realized amid a 7-4 outright record. With Northwestern in a ripe letdown moment, newly eligible for a bowl, trusting the Illini to again cover a multi-score spread carries plenty of logic.

This is the biggest disaparity of the week in my power ratings. I make this closer to a 10-point spread. This is a simple buy-low, sell-high spot where I'm selling Northwestern after back-to-back, down to the wire wins, and buying Illinois low after their upset loss as a touchdown-plus favorite against Wisconsin. Illinois needs it more and they're the fresher team. 

This feels like a bit of a trap spot for Alabama, but I'll lay with the Tide at less than a touchdown. Auburn can keep the Iron Bowl close for a while, but their biggest weakness on defense is Bama's biggest strength. The passing game. Ty Simpson and his terrific receiving corps should have success against a Tigers pass defense that ranks 90th in the country in success rate on dropbacks. Alabama also has the motivation of knowing a win secures its spot in the SEC title game.

Six of the 10 Alabama games and seven of the 10 Auburn games this season have gone Under the total. 

While SMU's top three receivers are all scoring threats, Knight offers the biggest payout and has been getting solid usage in recent weeks.

Jeremiyah Love has cleared this prop in four of his last five games, kicking his Heisman campaign into high gear. That Heisman campaign also helps Notre Dame's Playoff case, which is not already as bulletproof as some assume it is. Stanford's stalling offense should give the Irish offense plenty of chances with the ball, and until Love has filled his stat line, expect those chances to go toward him.

With style points of great importance, don’t expect Notre Dame to shut down the offense and avoid airing it out. That’s especially true against a Stanford defense that is more effective against the run (seventh in EPA per rush) than the pass (102nd).