College Football Picks

The Hawkeyes will win the battle up front, paving lanes for Moulton to rack up yardage against one of the nation’s worst run defenses (131st in EPA per rush).

Iowa should control the trenches, and its ability to control field position makes the Hawkeyes the more reliable side, which is why I’m backing the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. 

Kansas allows one of the worst explosive run rates in college football and Wayshawn Parker will punish the Jayhawks on the ground. He's posting an absurd breakaway yard rate of 48.6% this season, and has topped the century mark in four straight games.

The Utes have one of the best offensive lines in the country, and Parker's averaging nearly eight yards a carry his last four outings. A big part of that is his ability to break tackles, with 23 missed tackles forced during this stretch.

The Jayhawks rank 107th in EPA/rush, 106th in available yards allowed, and 96th in yards allowed after contact. Parker not only should clear this total, but I'll be laddering him as high as 175 yards on the ground. 

Lane Kiffin is either super locked in for the Egg Bowl and the CFP on the horizon. Or he's distracted by LSU and the jet they probably offered him. I'm hoping it's the former. Mississippi is one fourth-quarter collapse away from being undefeated and still has a shot at the SEC title game. Mississippi State has been underrated this season, but the Rebels can take advantage of the Bulldogs' biggest weakness by leaning on the running game. That will wear out Mississippi State over the course of the game, allowing Mississippi to cover the spread in this rivalry game.

This is a high-variance game. I don't know what the frame of mind is for Ole Miss. I think there's a good chance that the Lane Kiffin leaving news breaks before this game and MS State will continue to take money. On top of all that, this is a pro MS State pick. They have plenty to play for with a potnetial Bowl game on the line and we're getting them on the other side of a key number.

Running lanes for Haynes King and company will be hard to come by against a Georgia defense allowing only 87.6 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry. That'll force them to the air, and Rutherford has averaged 69 receiving yards in his last four healthy games.

The Yellow Jackets have had a rough few weeks. A loss to NC State, followed by a Houdini-like escape against BC, before Pitt likely dashed their ACC title and CFP hopes last week. But they do get a chance to close the season with a signature win vs. rival Georgia. Last year's matchup was the epic eight-OT game, which the Bulldogs won 44-42. And Georgia's defense isn't at the elite level it's been in the past. I don't know if Georgia Tech can pull off the upset with that defense of theirs, but Haynes King should battle enough to go Over this team total.

Mosley has recorded at least 53 receiving yards in four consecutive games, averaging 67.3 in that span.

Selective recency bias is the only reason this spread is so short. Texas A&M almost losing to South Carolina last week might have some questioning how good the undefeated Aggies anymore. But don't forget that Texas finally played a good team again and was beaten soundly. Arch is going to have a long night against this excellent Aggies defensive line. I will happily lay with Texas A&M at less than a field goal vs. a Texas team that has covered just two spreads all season.

Purdue has not allowed three passing touchdowns in a single game this season. 

Across their last six games, the Wildcats are surrendering an average of over 190 rushing yards. On the season, they check in at 113th in rushing success rate, which is an issue against a back of Brown’s talent.

Tyson is still finding his footing in his return from injury and Arizona has one of the best pass defenses in the country. 

Now that he's back in the lineup and healthy, Daniels provides great value for TD prop bettors given his production earlier in the year.

Sell-high spot against an elite Pitt run defense, where his low success rate, fragile role and likely pass-heavy Miami game script make this a good environment to fade him.

Arizona ran for 174 yards on 34 attempts against Baylor, adjusting for sacks, a 5.1 yards per rush average. Oh, and four touchdowns. The Wildcats were the fourth opponent in five games to average more than five yards per rush against the Bears. Given Houston head coach Willie Fritz's insistence on running the ball at all times, Baylor may be the exact right opponent for the Cougars to end the regular season.

Michigan has struggled defending the pass all season, notably since its season opener against New Mexico. Ranking No. 84 in the country in defensive passing success rate, per CFB-graphs.com, is a worry when now facing the No. 1 passing offense in the country, be it via success rate or expected points added (EPA) per dropback.

Oklahoma's top three running backs (Xavier Robinson, Tory Blaylock, Jovantae Barnes) are all struggling with various ailments, so Mateer will need to handle a bigger workload on the ground.

Missouri under a field goal is a steal, with a top-15, schedule-controlling profile and an elite rush defense perfectly built to bottle up Arkansas' attack while Ahmad Hardy and the Tigers offense carve up a leaky Hogs defense over four quarters.

Vanderbilt still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff, but that requires a win over rival Tennessee. Both teams can score with the best of them, but the Commodores are the more battle-tested team and have done a better job of converting quality drives into points. Vandy should also be able to control the tempo of the game by wearing out a Tennessee defense that ranks 121st in success rate vs. the rush. I like the Commodores to pull off the upset.

Oregon's freshman running back has been a touchdown machine, and is still providing great value even after he's scored in nearly every game this season.

UCLA has surrendered 48+ points to three of its last four opponents. USC's offense is a juggernaut (7.3 yards per play) ready to capitalize against a down rival.

Illinois has gone 5-1 against the spread as a multi-score favorite this season, living up to more expectations than perhaps realized amid a 7-4 outright record. With Northwestern in a ripe letdown moment, newly eligible for a bowl, trusting the Illini to again cover a multi-score spread carries plenty of logic.

This is the biggest disaparity of the week in my power ratings. I make this closer to a 10-point spread. This is a simple buy-low, sell-high spot where I'm selling Northwestern after back-to-back, down to the wire wins, and buying Illinois low after their upset loss as a touchdown-plus favorite against Wisconsin. Illinois needs it more and they're the fresher team. 

Six of the 10 Alabama games and seven of the 10 Auburn games this season have gone Under the total. 

Even on the road, the Crimson Tide will put away their rivals with ease to stay alive in the playoff picture.

While SMU's top three receivers are all scoring threats, Knight offers the biggest payout and has been getting solid usage in recent weeks.

With style points of great importance, don’t expect Notre Dame to shut down the offense and avoid airing it out. That’s especially true against a Stanford defense that is more effective against the run (seventh in EPA per rush) than the pass (102nd).