College Football Picks

Hawai'i is a run-funnel defense checking in at 127th in PFF’s
rush defense grade and 125th in tackling. They’ve allowed more rushing scores (16) than passing scores (14) this season, and the defensive line is a pushover unit ranking 112th in line yards, 104th in stuff rate, and 118th in power success rate. Cal has very few healthy options in the backfield, and JKS is a stud.

Cal is a run-funnel defense that shuts down the pass (18th in passing success rate allowed) but is brutal against the run (121st in EPA per rush, 119th in rushing success rate). Hawai’i really wants to throw the ball (fourth in pass rate) despite the matchup, which means that Alejado will have the ball in his hands plenty with an opportunity to take off and scramble. He was hampered with an ankle injury for the majority of the year but has ample mobility. 

With Flores back to revive a Chippewas rushing attack that averaged 202.1 yards with him active and nearly 100 more than their November output, CMU has the physicality to win the clock and exploit Northwestern’s turnover tendencies. 

I expect CMU to win the trenches and find a way to cover the double-digit spread. 

New Mexico finished the season on a tear, winning its last six games, and has more impressive overall metrics than Minnesota, which was lucky to finish with a 7-5 record and frankly didn't play like a bowl team for much of the year.

East Carolina didn't play a ranked team all season (BYU was unranked when they played in September), and Pitt ended its year with three straight Top 16 teams.

While they may shake some rust off as they haven't played since Nov 29, they should find their footing just fine to win by double digits – five of their final six wins were by at least 10 points.

Miami managed just 10 points against the Aggies, who rank first in third-down conversion rate. The Buckeyes rank second. They're also much better than Texas A&M at limiting points on quality drives.

The Canes won't get many of those to begin with. Remember, this is an Ohio State defense that didn't allow a single opponent to score more than 16 points in a single game. One other team in history has done that.

On the flip side, the Miami defense is fairly strong and will give Ohio State some issues in the trenches. That should prevent the Buckeyes from having a big scoring day of their own.

I don't see this game getting to 40 points, especially not with Carson Beck involved. Take the Under.

The last I checked, Carson Beck is the quarterback of the Miami Hurricanes. And he's too turnover prone and inconsistent for me to back the Canes to keep this game close.

Ohio State has one of the best defenses in college football, and Indiana managed just 13 points. But the Hoosiers have a better defense than the Canes, who allow too many explosive pass plays and rank 132nd in missed tackle rate. 

The Buckeye receivers are beyond elite, and should find success against a defense that gave up 91 throws of 10+ yards this season despite facing some fairly anemic passing attacks. 

Beck will be forced to make tough throws and keep drives alive. He will turn it over multiple times as the offense struggles to score and the Buckeyes win comfortably. 

The Red Raiders limit opponents to 10.9 ppg and just 254.4 total yards on a measly 4.0 yards per play. Oregon checks in at seventh in EPA per play allowed, but public sentiment is experiencing recency bias due to garbage-time production by JMU in the first round.

Oregon is 38-4 across its last 42 games, and the only losses have come to a National Championship runner-up (Washington, twice in 2023), a National Champ (Ohio State last year), and the current No. 1 team in the country (undefeated Indiana this season). Texas Tech, meanwhile, lost to Arizona State this year.

The Under has hit in seven of the last 10 Georgia games and each of the last four. 

Georgia won the previous matchup by 8 points this season and have improved their play since that game.