College Football Picks

Tommy Castellanos is averaging 246.1 passing yards over his last seven games, going Over 235.5 yards six times during that period. He should cook a North Carolina State secondary that is struggling. The Wolfpapck have been torched for 367 passing yards to Miami, 408 to Georgia Tech, 423 to Pitt, and 342 to Notre Dame over the last four games. 

Micah Alejado is averaging 358.8 passing yards across his last five games, and he stands a good chance of continuing his lucrative run against a miserable UNLV defense that surrenders 6.6 yards per play.

I like this spot for Hawaii. They're off a bye, catching UNLV off an overtime game on a short week. I actually think Hawaii is the slightly better team and there's some prior perception built into this line. Also, don't underestimate the "hidden homefield," don't be surprised to see Hawaii have 40% or 50% of the crowd based on my experience of attending this game in Las Vegas in past years.

VA Tech is 1-5 ATS at home this season. It will be a tough ask for the train wreck to get back on track against a Miami team holding a sizable edge in all facets of the game.

Ohio State will run up the score against Rutgers, and I'm confident that the Scarlet Knights can contribute enough to get us to the Over on Saturday.

For all of Oklahoma's thrilling qualities, the Sooners struggle where it matters most, averaging just 3.05 points per quality drive, No. 102 in the country. That kind of struggle ruins any confidence in Oklahoma covering a spread of more than a touchdown against a quality opponent, a position the Sooners actually have not been in yet this season.

The Sooners keep almost every opponent below their season average of points allowed and the Tigers have been struggling on offense against good teams.

Baylor's rush defense has become a laughingstock. Admittedly, it started the year as a joke, giving up 307 yards to Auburn in the opener. Utah ran for nearly 400 late on Saturday, just a few weeks after Cincinnati took 50 carries for more than five yards per carry. Enter Arizona and a top-25 rushing offense. The Wildcats should gash the Bears.

Going strictly by the numbers, James Madison should be a full two-touchdown favorite. Going by the motivation at hand as the Dukes try to make a case for a College Football Playoff bid, expect James Madison to press the gas for the whole game. This is one moment in which there should be on risk of a backdoor cover.

Consider this the safer version of doubting Syracuse will reach the end zone at all. The Orange offense has been broken since quarterback Steve Angeli blew his Achilles at Clemson. Remove that strong showing and Syracuse has the worst offense in the ACC. Without any Orange contributions, will Notre Dame pour in 51 points on its own? Perhaps the Irish could, but there is a reason five of their last six games have all gone Under their totals. Notre Dame's offense is impressive, but it is not one to score 56 or 63 casually.

Notre Dame has won three Senior Days under Marcus Freeman by a combined score of 124-21. Some of that reflects the quality of opponents, but much of it reflects Freeman's tendency of bettering his team as the season goes along. That was evident as Pittsburgh's supposedly dynamic offense went 2-of-13 on late-down situations last weekend. This aggressive defense now faces a bottom-25 offense in late-down situations, one that has so scuffled for a quarterback since Steve Angeli's injury that it at one point turned to the lacrosse team.

Gio Lopez has thrown for 200+ yards in four straight games for North Carolina, and has cleared up his turnovers. It's helped the Tar Heels nearly knock off Virginia and pick up two wins in that span.

Wake Forest's strong defense stopped the Heels last week, but now they face a Duke squad that ranks 118th in passing success rate, 84th in EPA/dropback, and 114th in quality drive rate.

The Blue Devils suffered a crushing defeat to Virginia last week, ending their ACC title hopes. I'm not sure they have the juice to get up for this game a week later, especially with the Tar Heels needing to win out to reach a bowl game.

The last three meetings have been decided by a total of six points. I'll take the Tar Heels at this price. 

We’re betting Gio Lopez’s passing yards over again (up to 199.5) because he’s cleared 200 in four straight games, Duke’s pass defense is atrocious, and a likely pass-friendly game script sets him up to exploit it.

USC's defense has received some faint praise this season, but it has reverted back to its true self in recent weeks. Oregon's defense has also fallen off in recent weeks, slight defensive letdowns against Iowa and Minnesota that the Trojans' offense should delight in exploiting. Expect this to turn into a shootout, perhaps a moment of assuming whoever has the ball last will win.

Neither team plays at a fast tempo, the pace should be relatively slow. The Ducks will run the ball, keeping the clock ticking, and USC's vaunted offense will be slowed by Oregon's elite defense.

Vanderbilt presents the toughest challenge Kentucky has faced since its loss to Tennessee. and with the Commodores badly needing to win to remain alive in the playoff race, I expect they'll take care of business.

Michigan has struggled to put away bad teams this season and the Terps have lost a lot of close games this year. 

You could gain rushing yards against Georgia Tech these days. The Yellow Jackets have given up 600 combined sack-adjusted rushing yards to Syracuse, NC State and Boston College in their last three games, all paltry rushing attacks. Pittsburgh does prefer to throw the ball, but this weakness is too glaring to ignore.

Georgia Tech's defense has been nonexistent of late, especially against the run. The Yellow Jackets narrowly defeated Boston College last week, and Pitt has a path to beat them.

Desmont Reid's return will boost a rushing attack that should build on what both BC and NC State have done the past two weeks. That will help an offense ranked 16th in quality drive rate against a Tech defense ranked 121st in points allowed per quality drive.

Pitt's front four is very good, and the Panthers rank 12th in yards allowed before contact, 12th in EPA/rush, and fifth in rushing success rate. The Panthers must win to keep ACC Championship hopes alive and will do so.

Tennessee ranks 120th in success against the run, 117th in missed tackle rate, and 95th in yards allowed after contact. The Vols also have problems with mobile quarterbacks.

Florida showed life last week, and Jaden Baugh is a tank who will cause problems for the Vols. He leads a rushing attack that had a 54% success rate against Mississippi, which ranked Top 15 nationally. 

The Gators are getting key players back from injury on both sides of the ball, and would love nothing more than to beat their hated rivals in The Swamp. The Vols will put up points, but the Gators will get enough of their own to get the win. 

Aguilar has been a good fit in Josh Heupel's system, throwing for 2,941 yards and 22 touchdown passes this season. Florida's strength is its defense, but this tumultuous season is wearing on the unit as the Gators enter this game ranked 73rd in success rate on dropbacks and 68th in EPA per dropback. Aguilar is averaging 294.1 passing yards per game and has topped this number in five of his last nine games.

Defensively, BYU is built to shut down what Cincinnati does best. The Cougars allow just 191.5 passing yards per game and only eight passing touchdowns all season, making life difficult for Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby.