College Football Picks

With Flores back to revive a Chippewas rushing attack that averaged 202.1 yards with him active and nearly 100 more than their November output, CMU has the physicality to win the clock and exploit Northwestern’s turnover tendencies. 

I expect CMU to win the trenches and find a way to cover the double-digit spread. 

New Mexico finished the season on a tear, winning its last six games, and has more impressive overall metrics than Minnesota, which was lucky to finish with a 7-5 record and frankly didn't play like a bowl team for much of the year.

Despite defections for both teams, the UTSA Roadrunners have by far the better roster and the better quarterback.

FIU went 7-5 despite a strength of schedule that was among the weakest in college football, and struggled defensively in doing so. The Panthers have been dominated in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and will have major problems stopping a UTSA rushing attack that ranks 29th in line yards with the backs ranking 20th in yards after contact.

Owen McCown will make big plays in the passing game for the Roadrunners, while UTSA gets stops against an FIU offense that ranks 104th in offensive EPA, 103rd in rushing success, and 94th in points per quality drive. 

East Carolina didn't play a ranked team all season (BYU was unranked when they played in September), and Pitt ended its year with three straight Top 16 teams.

While they may shake some rust off as they haven't played since Nov 29, they should find their footing just fine to win by double digits – five of their final six wins were by at least 10 points.

Penn State's pass defense is solid, but its run defense has been the soft spot (45.5% success rate allowed), which gives Clemson a way to stay on schedule through two facets: short passes and runs between the tackles.

Clemson isn't untouched. WR Antonio Williams and multiple defenders are out, but their overall defensive efficiency has been better.

With Penn State likely forced into a conservative, run-heavy script and operating with an unsettled roster, Clemson needs to win the "manage the game" battle to cover a short number.

UConn starting quarterback Joe Fagnano, who threw for 28 touchdowns and just one interception this year, has opted out of the Fenway Bowl. The Huskies will also be without head coach Jim Mora, who has taken a new job at Colorado State.

If there was a thought that UConn would push up the total from where Army normally plays, I can’t see that happening, given the team’s current situation. Without that possibility, I’m taking the Under.

Miami managed just 10 points against the Aggies, who rank first in third-down conversion rate. The Buckeyes rank second. They're also much better than Texas A&M at limiting points on quality drives.

The Canes won't get many of those to begin with. Remember, this is an Ohio State defense that didn't allow a single opponent to score more than 16 points in a single game. One other team in history has done that.

On the flip side, the Miami defense is fairly strong and will give Ohio State some issues in the trenches. That should prevent the Buckeyes from having a big scoring day of their own.

I don't see this game getting to 40 points, especially not with Carson Beck involved. Take the Under.

The last I checked, Carson Beck is the quarterback of the Miami Hurricanes. And he's too turnover prone and inconsistent for me to back the Canes to keep this game close.

Ohio State has one of the best defenses in college football, and Indiana managed just 13 points. But the Hoosiers have a better defense than the Canes, who allow too many explosive pass plays and rank 132nd in missed tackle rate. 

The Buckeye receivers are beyond elite, and should find success against a defense that gave up 91 throws of 10+ yards this season despite facing some fairly anemic passing attacks. 

Beck will be forced to make tough throws and keep drives alive. He will turn it over multiple times as the offense struggles to score and the Buckeyes win comfortably. 

The Red Raiders limit opponents to 10.9 ppg and just 254.4 total yards on a measly 4.0 yards per play. Oregon checks in at seventh in EPA per play allowed, but public sentiment is experiencing recency bias due to garbage-time production by JMU in the first round.

Oregon is 38-4 across its last 42 games, and the only losses have come to a National Championship runner-up (Washington, twice in 2023), a National Champ (Ohio State last year), and the current No. 1 team in the country (undefeated Indiana this season). Texas Tech, meanwhile, lost to Arizona State this year.

The Under has hit in seven of the last 10 Georgia games and each of the last four. 

Georgia won the previous matchup by 8 points this season and have improved their play since that game.