College Football Picks

James Madison is not getting the respect it deserves from the CFP committee. The Dukes enter the Sun Belt title with an 11-1 record. The lone loss came to Louisville in a game they were leading midway through the 3rd. They had a 25.1 point margin of victory in the wins. Troy will have trouble scoring in this one. Like, at all. JMU needs a dominating win here to have any shot at the CFP. I'll ride with the Dukes.

There may be an instinct to take an Under simply out of deference to two run-first offenses, but when the running games work, run-first offenses are just as capable as any as cashing an Over. Furthermore, Kennesaw State's defense has been a worry the last three weeks. That alone justifies this Over thought in a high-stakes moment.

Both UNLV and Boise State have trended toward Unders to close the season, the Rebels cashing three Unders in their last four games while the Broncos hit four Unders in their last five games. In UNLV's case, that has been a testament of strength, its defense providing the strength to charge into the Mountain West title game. For Boise State, that has been a weakness, its offense falling short too often of late.

Boise should attempt to lean into its ground game against a UNLV defense that simply cannot stop the run (132nd in EPA per rush allowed). Madsen hasn't played in over a month, and it'll be a rainy and cold Mountain West title game.

The North Texas offense is quite good, but the defense cannot stop the run. That's how Tulane should attack and win this game.

The Green Wave average 4.7 yards a carry despite a low explosive run rate, and can consistently move the chains against the Mean Green. That will keep Drew Mestemaker on the sideline, and can put him in situations where he's rusty facing a strong Tulane pass rush.

North Texas has played one of the softest schedules in college football, while Tulane has beaten some very good teams. That experience, playing at home, will carry the Green Wave to victory as they run over and around their opponents. 

Dorner has caught four touchdown passes in his last six games, and will be a major target in what should be a Friday night shootout.

Lowry has surpassed this number in seven of his last nine contests. This number is an overreaction to his last two games, which bear little resemblance to this matchup, and he averaged 170.9 passing yards in the seven games prior. 

Western Michigan may be fortunate to reach this spot, but the combination of Broc Lowry’s dynamic rushing ability and the Broncos’ elite red-zone defense gives them a real edge over freshman quarterback Thomas Gotkowski and the Miami RedHawks.

Douglas scored against BYU in their regular season meeting, and is only getting more usage as of late, scoring six touchdowns in his last five games.

Tough matchup against TTU, a dominant defensive group surrendering just 258.9 total yards per game and 4.0 yards per play. They’ve been especially strong at stopping the run, allowing just 68.9 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry. 

Alabama beat Georgia on the road despite allowing 227 rushing yards at nearly seven yards a carry. It did so by getting stops on third down, and limiting scoring chances.

The Tide have improved their run defense the past month, and the Georgia offense looked utterly stagnant against Georgia Tech's poor defense last week. 

The Bulldogs have gotten away with slow starts all season, coming back to win in nearly every SEC game. That won't happen this time, as Kirby Smart goes 0-4 in SEC Championship games against the Tide. 

Frazier has taken on a bigger part of the offense as the season has progressed, averaging 86.7 rushing yards across the final six games of the year. Alabama ranks 68th in EPA per rush and 111th in rushing explosiveness allowed, so this isn't too scary of a matchup.

Jackson has gone for over 100 yards in three straight games, and will be a key weapon as Ohio State tries to punch through a stubborn Indiana defensive front.

The Buckeyes want to run the ball and dominate the clock. They limited Michigan to just 44 offensive snaps this weekend, and their run rate above expected is one of the highest in the nation.

In Penn State’s narrow defeat to the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions ran the ball 33 times to help set up the play-action game. It led to multiple chunk completions, as Indiana allowed six throws of at least 15 yards on the day. 

It’s hard to see either team putting up consistent scoring. And if Ohio State gets the lead, it’s going to pound the rock and lean on the defense. That will keep this game in the 24-17 or 27-20 realm with the total going Under.

Virginia beat Duke, 34-17, in mid-November in what seemed like a must-win game. And that was with the Blue Devils enjoying an interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. This matchup favors the Cavaliers, certainly by more than 3.5 points. Their passing game alone exposes too many holes in Duke's defense.

Harris dominated this matchup just a few weeks ago, catching eight passes for 161 yards and a score in Week 12. He’s ready for another big game against a defense checking in at 113th in coverage grade (per PFF) and 131st in EPA per pass allowed.