College Football Picks

Vanderbilt and Iowa both thrive on keeping the ball away from opponents, grinding out clock, and shortening the game.

Those two styles will mesh perfectly for Under bettors. Vanderbilt won't find the explosive plays that led to the offense ranking first in yards per play, especially with Eli Stowers opting out.

Iowa's rushing attack will need to do work against Vandy's solid ground defense, and Mark Gronowski's legs will keep drives going.

Both teams do well at limiting points from quality drives. In a game with fewer possessions and a clock that won't stop often, settling for field goals will keep the point total low enough to cash the Under. 

With several absences on both defenses, here’s betting on Duke’s usual style of play (9-4 O/U) coming through in El Paso.

Projected this closer to -150 for the same reason I thought his rushing was a good look: a high volume game being in store. 

Would play to around 170. Think this number is too low given the general bowl chaos surrounding both teams. 

Projected 49.5 and the game script follows that line of thinking. Both of these teams will be more suited to run the ball early and often which means the clock will be ticking throughout. 

Ohio State is a very good football team. But the Buckeyes have only been tested by strong defenses a couple of times this season. And those games were close. Miami has one of the best defensive fronts in the country, and if Carson Beck can limit the mistakes, the ceiling for this Hurricanes team is a national championship. Meaning 9.5 points is way too big of a spread.

Miami managed just 10 points against the Aggies, who rank first in third-down conversion rate. The Buckeyes rank second. They're also much better than Texas A&M at limiting points on quality drives.

The Canes won't get many of those to begin with. Remember, this is an Ohio State defense that didn't allow a single opponent to score more than 16 points in a single game. One other team in history has done that.

On the flip side, the Miami defense is fairly strong and will give Ohio State some issues in the trenches. That should prevent the Buckeyes from having a big scoring day of their own.

I don't see this game getting to 40 points, especially not with Carson Beck involved. Take the Under.

Texas Tech has not lost with starting quarterback Behren Morton in the lineup. The Red Raiders have not lost against the spread against Power Four competition with Morton in the lineup. They have not even come within 10 points of losing ATS against Power Four competition with Morton in the lineup. Texas Tech remains underappreciated, and as a short underdog, that provides us outright value on a plus-moneyline bet.

The Red Raiders limit opponents to 10.9 ppg and just 254.4 total yards on a measly 4.0 yards per play. Oregon checks in at seventh in EPA per play allowed, but public sentiment is experiencing recency bias due to garbage-time production by JMU in the first round.

Alabama is an immensely flawed football team that was fortunate for Oklahoma’s mistakes in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Indiana is one of the most fundamentally sound teams we have seen in years; those mistakes should not be gifted. But the Tide also have one of the highest ceilings in the country, and desperation should bring out their best side, the passing game. This hook begs for a backdoor cover from an explosive passing attack in the second half.

Trinidad Chambliss will be the key for Mississippi to keep the Sugar Bowl close and potentially pull off the upset against Georgia. Chambliss leads a Rebels aerial attack that ranks seventh in the country in success rate on dropbacks. Despite winning nine in a row, the Bulldogs have been vulnerable against good passers, ranking 55th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.

The Under has hit in seven of the last 10 Georgia games and each of the last four.