College Football Picks

Navy is still in the hunt for the AAC title and an outside shot at the CFP. That will require a win at Memphis on Thanksgiving. But in the spirit of the holiday, I'm betting both defenses will be giving in this one. While most people still associate Navy with the triple option with Blake Horvath under center, this Midshipmen offense can also be explosive through the air, which has been the Tigers' Achilles heel. While the Navy defense has also leaked like a sieve. Navy is 8-2 to the Over this season while Memphis has cashed the Over in four straight.

The Hawkeyes will win the battle up front, paving lanes for Moulton to rack up yardage against one of the nation’s worst run defenses (131st in EPA per rush).

Iowa should control the trenches, and its ability to control field position makes the Hawkeyes the more reliable side, which is why I’m backing the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. 

Lane Kiffin is either super locked in for the Egg Bowl and the CFP on the horizon. Or he's distracted by LSU and the jet they probably offered him. I'm hoping it's the former. Mississippi is one fourth-quarter collapse away from being undefeated and still has a shot at the SEC title game. Mississippi State has been underrated this season, but the Rebels can take advantage of the Bulldogs' biggest weakness by leaning on the running game. That will wear out Mississippi State over the course of the game, allowing Mississippi to cover the spread in this rivalry game.

This is a high-variance game. I don't know what the frame of mind is for Ole Miss. I think there's a good chance that the Lane Kiffin leaving news breaks before this game and MS State will continue to take money. On top of all that, this is a pro MS State pick. They have plenty to play for with a potnetial Bowl game on the line and we're getting them on the other side of a key number.

Running lanes for Haynes King and company will be hard to come by against a Georgia defense allowing only 87.6 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry. That'll force them to the air, and Rutherford has averaged 69 receiving yards in his last four healthy games.

The Yellow Jackets have had a rough few weeks. A loss to NC State, followed by a Houdini-like escape against BC, before Pitt likely dashed their ACC title and CFP hopes last week. But they do get a chance to close the season with a signature win vs. rival Georgia. Last year's matchup was the epic eight-OT game, which the Bulldogs won 44-42. And Georgia's defense isn't at the elite level it's been in the past. I don't know if Georgia Tech can pull off the upset with that defense of theirs, but Haynes King should battle enough to go Over this team total.

Mosley has recorded at least 53 receiving yards in four consecutive games, averaging 67.3 in that span.

Selective recency bias is the only reason this spread is so short. Texas A&M almost losing to South Carolina last week might have some questioning how good the undefeated Aggies anymore. But don't forget that Texas finally played a good team again and was beaten soundly. Arch is going to have a long night against this excellent Aggies defensive line. I will happily lay with Texas A&M at less than a field goal vs. a Texas team that has covered just two spreads all season.

Purdue has not allowed three passing touchdowns in a single game this season. 

Across their last six games, the Wildcats are surrendering an average of over 190 rushing yards. On the season, they check in at 113th in rushing success rate, which is an issue against a back of Brown’s talent.

Tyson is still finding his footing in his return from injury and Arizona has one of the best pass defenses in the country. 

Arizona ran for 174 yards on 34 attempts against Baylor, adjusting for sacks, a 5.1 yards per rush average. Oh, and four touchdowns. The Wildcats were the fourth opponent in five games to average more than five yards per rush against the Bears. Given Houston head coach Willie Fritz's insistence on running the ball at all times, Baylor may be the exact right opponent for the Cougars to end the regular season.

Michigan has struggled defending the pass all season, notably since its season opener against New Mexico. Ranking No. 84 in the country in defensive passing success rate, per CFB-graphs.com, is a worry when now facing the No. 1 passing offense in the country, be it via success rate or expected points added (EPA) per dropback.

Oklahoma's top three running backs (Xavier Robinson, Tory Blaylock, Jovantae Barnes) are all struggling with various ailments, so Mateer will need to handle a bigger workload on the ground.

This is the biggest disaparity of the week in my power ratings. I make this closer to a 10-point spread. This is a simple buy-low, sell-high spot where I'm selling Northwestern after back-to-back, down to the wire wins, and buying Illinois low after their upset loss as a touchdown-plus favorite against Wisconsin. Illinois needs it more and they're the fresher team. 

Six of the 10 Alabama games and seven of the 10 Auburn games this season have gone Under the total. 

Even on the road, the Crimson Tide will put away their rivals with ease to stay alive in the playoff picture.

With style points of great importance, don’t expect Notre Dame to shut down the offense and avoid airing it out. That’s especially true against a Stanford defense that is more effective against the run (seventh in EPA per rush) than the pass (102nd).