2023 RSM Classic Picks & Odds: Tracking the Action at Sea Island

Ludvig Aberg remains in top form but heads to Sea Island still in search of his first PGA Tour victory. As such, he's alone atop the odds board for this week's season-ending RSM Classic.

Nov 16, 2023 • 11:19 ET • 4 min read
Ludvig Aberg PGA Tour RSM Classic
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Ludvig Aberg has been the biggest story in golf over the last few months so it's fitting to see him atop the board to close the FedEx Cup Fall at the RSM Classic.

The annual trip to Sea Island Golf Club will have more at stake than normal as guys jockey for position inside the Top 125. 

We break down the favorites, the field, the course, and more in our RSM Classic betting preview below, including live golf odds, free golf picks, and more.

Live odds to win 2023 RSM Classic

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RSM Classic picks and predictions

Ludvig Aberg over Cameron Young (-130)

I backed Ludvig Aberg in this exact matchup at the World Wide Technology Championship a few weeks back and it paid off, so let’s go back to the well with a handicap that’s essentially the same.

The WWT Championship was Young’s first start since the BMW in August and his T54 finish with rounds of 74 and 72 on Friday and Saturday suggests there’s still some rust to knock off.

The exact opposite is the case for Aberg, who hasn’t finished worse than T14 since July and has played five times since the start of September (not including the Ryder Cup). The Scandinavian ranks second in the field in total strokes gained, second from tee-to-green, and clears Young by 76 spots in strokes gained approach.

We’re laying some juice here but this -130 price is too long considering he’s as short as -175 at bet365

Pick: Ludvig Aberg over Cameron Young (-130 at Caesars)

J.J. Spaun Top 30 (+125)

J.J. Spaun has a nice combination of course history and recent form that makes him worth a look in Georgia. Here at Sea Island, he’s made six cuts in seven tries and has a runner-up to his name (2017) in addition to back-to-back Top 16s in 2021 and 2022.

He hasn’t missed a cut since June and has finished T38 or better in seven of those nine starts, including a T6 at the ZOZO in late October and three other Top-25 finishes.

His putter is by far the weak link of his game at 102nd in the field but he’s actually fared pretty well on the greens here, gaining strokes in five of those seven RSM starts highlighted by a +6.12 true strokes gained putting performance in 2017.

Otherwise, we’re looking at a guy who ranks 16th in the field in total strokes gained, fourth from tee-to-green, and no worse than 24th in any other major category. 

You can find his Top 20 at up to +210 but I'll happily take the extra breathing room at +125.

Pick: J.J. Spaun Top 30 (+125 at bet365)

RSM Classic field and favorites

All eyes will once again be on Ludvig Aberg, who continues to rise through the ranks in search of his first PGA Tour victory.

He's working on a run of seven straight Top-15 finishes, which includes his first pro win at the Omega European Masters and a runner-up finish at the Sanderson Farms in October. His 14/1 outright odds place him atop the board and well clear of the rest of the field.

Below the Swede is a trio of guys available at 20/1: Russell Henley, Brian Harman, and Cameron Young. This will be the first start since the TOUR Championship for both Henley and Harman (T2 last season) but both are Georgia natives and annual staples here at Sea Island. 

Young made his first start since the FedEx Cup Playoffs at the World Wide Technology Championship two weeks ago (T54) and finished T29 here in his RSM debut two years ago.

Corey Conners rounds out the Top 5 and has a decent resume here at Sea Island, finishing T23, T10, and T22 in three starts between 2018 and 2021.

There are a handful of recent RSM winners in the field this week, including defending champion Adam Svensson at 33/1, 2016 winner Mackenzie Hughes at 80/1, and 2015 champ Kevin Kisner at +12,500.

RSM Classic course notes and weather

Sea Island Golf Cub has played host to this event since its inception in 2010, with the Seaside (Par 70) and Plantation Courses (Par 72) both on the shorter side at just over 7,000 yards apiece. 

That means less of a focus on length off the tee and more on fairway accuracy and iron play. Furthermore, the last three RSM Classic winners finished inside the Top 10 in strokes gained putting.

It's expected to rain on Thursday with scattered showers carrying over into Friday but those should finish up by the afternoon, leading into what should be clear skies and prime scoring conditions on the weekend. Winds aren't expected to surpass 20 km/h on Saturday or Sunday.

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RSM Classic recent winners and odds history

Let's take a look at some recent RSM Classic winners and their closing odds to win:

Year Winner Closing Odds
2022 Adam Svensson +12,500
2021 Talor Gooch +4,000
2020 Robert Streb +30,000
2019 Tyler Duncan +15,000
2018 Charles Howell III +4,000
2017 Austin Cook +6,000
2016 Mackenzie Hughes OTB
2015 Kevin Kisner +2,000

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

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