The Detroit Red Wings are set to host the Dallas Stars, and even with the Red Wings in the midst of an impressive heater, it’s the Stars trading as the betting favorite in the NHL odds.
Detroit is dazzling along a 7-1-1 January run, which includes a pair of statement wins over the Kings in addition to topping the Maple Leafs, Panthers, and Lightning.
While Dallas hasn’t been quite as hot, the Stars have also been hanging near the top of the Stanley Cup odds for most of the season. Big D also got a big boost with No. 1 goalie Jake Oettinger returning from a lower-body injury earlier this month.
This looks to be one of the better games on the ice tonight, so read on for my free NHL picks for the Stars vs. Red Wings on Tuesday, January 23.
Stars vs Red Wings odds
Stars vs Red Wings predictions
The Detroit Red Wings are overachieving, and this hasn’t been lost on oddsmakers as the Dallas Stars are sizable road favorites. Detroit ranks second-last in Corsi For percentage (41.9%) and last in expected goals for percentage (41.4%) at 5-on-5 during its noted 7-1-1 stretch in January.
Winning with those metrics is unsustainable long term, and there is statistical correction ahead. The Wings won’t maintain their 11.36 team shooting percentage nor the .935 team SV%, and we’ve already seen an example of them coming up short against the Hurricanes on Friday.
Detroit was limited to just two high-danger scoring chances and 0.8 expected goals by the Canes, and the Stars have a similar style of play. Dallas ranks eighth in CF% (52.4%) while allowing the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.29) at 5-on-5, and they boast a third-ranked 84.9% PK.
Additionally, my numbers reinforce the talent and statistical gap between the two teams. Dallas ranks fourth in offense and fifth in my defense ratings, while Detroit ranks 20th and 29th respectively.
There’s also the goaltending elephant in the room. Alex Lyon has been the fuel behind the January surge with a .927 SV%, however, his 17 starts this season are already a career-high total. Lyon has a -0.16 goals saved above average and 24.59 expected goals against compared to his actual 20 allowed through his eight January appearances. I’m skeptical he can continue this high-end play while starting nearly every game.
The -125 price on Stars moneyline I backed Monday is no longer available, so I’m pivoting to Dallas in regulation through PROLINE+ because the +105 odds are in line with the available prices across the industry.
My best bet: Stars in regulation (+105 at PROLINE+)
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Stars vs Red Wings same-game parlay
Stars moneyline
Under 6.5 goals
The Red Wings are on an unsustainable run and set for statistical correction in a number of areas. Dallas is an opponent capable of kick-starting the process and exposing Detroit’s shortcomings, and in particular, there’s a huge gap in the previously highlighted 5-on-5 metrics.
Additionally, I’m not anticipating Alex Lyon’s play to fall off a cliff, and there has been line movement to the Under 6.5 since the market opened Monday. I especially value Dallas allowing the third-fewest expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 and ranking third in penalty-kill percentage. I expect quality chances to be difficult to come by for Detroit.
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Stars vs Red Wings moneyline and Over/Under analysis
As discussed, there has been line movement to the Dallas side since odds opened Monday. Still, while the Stars remain a healthy road favorite, there has been a buyback on Detroit as of Tuesday morning. As a result, I’m not expecting to see significant adjustments to the moneyline leading into puck drop because the market has already stabilized.
This total has my interest because Dallas checks out highly in my defense rankings, and Detroit has the noted statistical correction ahead of its shooting efficiency. There also has been the mentioned line movement to the Under 6.5, which aligns with my handicap. Again, though, I doubt we see any huge odds shifts or a 6.0 total become available.
Stars vs Red Wings betting trend to know
The total has gone Under in six of Detroit’s past seven games, and Dallas has played to the Under in five of its past seven road contests. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Red Wings.
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Stars vs Red Wings game info
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 23, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSDET, BSSW |
Stars vs Red Wings latest injuries
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