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Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Marchessault Stays Hot In Sunrise

Jonathan Marchessault has been dominant for the Vegas Golden Knights, and despite the price on him to get a point gaining a bit of steam already... our free NHL picks for tonight's Game 4 explain why it's still a smart value play.

Last Updated: Jun 10, 2023 7:06 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jonathan Marchessault Vegas Golden Knights NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Florida Panthers avoided a 3-0 Stanley Cup Final deficit Thursday with a late tying goal — followed by a winner four minutes into Game 3's OT.

Despite the Panthers’ victory, Vegas still has the better Stanley Cup odds, having led (and dominated) for the bulk of this series, and its NHL odds have gotten even shorter on the money heading into tonight's contest.

Jonathan Marchessault is the current Conn Smythe odds favorite, as he has points in eight straight games, leads all skaters in points at 5-on-5, and is still just -165 to record a point tonight.

Even with the juice, bettors shouldn’t be afraid to hammer the Over, as well as some other Golden Knights vs. Panthers Game 4 props, including goalie saves and blocked shots.

Find out where my best NHL free picks are leaning in my betting preview for Golden Knights vs. Panthers Game 4.

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Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 4 odds

Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 4 predictions

Jonathan Marchessault is currently -140 to win the Conn Smythe and if the Vegas Golden Knights can win two more games, he will likely (and deservedly) be taking home the hardware.

Through 20 games, he has 23 points (17 at even strength) and is tied for the playoff lead with 13 goals. He also hasn’t been padding his stats in garbage time either, as 10 of his 13 goals have tied a game or given the Knights a lead.

Marchessault was -150 to record a point in Game 3 and after two points on a power play that is 6-for-17 in the series — and still getting ample opportunities with the man advantage — he only moved to -155 at opening heading into Game 4.

That Over has picked up some steam and has moved to -165 as of Saturday morning... but it's still worth the price. Considering the guy who plays almost every minute with him (Jack Eichel) is -200 to record a point, the MVP frontrunner at -165 is a great value. 

I have the winger at a fair price of -175 to -180: He gets every scoring opportunity, is playing with an inspired Eichel, and has recorded a point in seven of his nine road games so far in the playoffs. This market has moved from -155 to as short as -185 and something I’d play to -165.

Pairing Eichel and Marchessault for a point at bet365 gives +105 which might be a less-risk position for those with the book — or an option bettors can do if they’re staring -170 or worse for a Marchessault point, or just don’t want to lay the juice. Of Marchessault’s 23 points, Eichel has contributed on 13 of them, including 12 of his last 19 points over the last 11 games.

Another pivot, if that line keeps moving, would be Vegas goalie Adin Hill Under 29.5 saves at -105, especially with how well Vegas is forcing low-quality shot attempts and blocking a ton of shots.

My best bet: Jonathan Marchessault Over 0.5 points

Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 3 same-game parlay

Hague Over 1.5 blocked shots

Marchessault Over 0.5 points

Hill Under 29.5 saves

Nicolas Hague has the best value of all six Vegas defensemen in the blocked shots market and has similar blocked shots/60 stats as Shea Theodore, who plays similar minutes but also doesn't play on the penalty kill as Hague does. 

Marchessault has seen a lot of steam on his Over 0.5 points, which is warranted as I have him recording a point as to a 66% probability. He has also contributed to 43% of the team's goals over the last 11 games. 

With time and space becoming less and less as this series progresses, Hill is seeing fewer shots get through. Vegas had more blocked shots than the Florida Panthers had shots on net in Game 3 and if the Knights continue to keep the Panthers to the outside in their defensive zone, Florida is going to continue to get pucks through and on net. 

As always, bettors should be looking at the true odds of all their SGPs as holds and multipliers can zap plenty of the value. This SGP has true odds of +398, which considering there is a small correlation to the Under saves and a blocked shot play, is solid. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 4 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Knights lost Game 3 but continued to play with the lead and needed a last-ditch game-tying goal from Florida with the goalie pulled to send it overtime, where the Panthers scored on their first shot that was well above the circles.

So far in the series, Vegas has had the lead for over 107 minutes, compared to Florida at 19:38, and bettors aren’t being fooled by the results of Game 3.

After the Golden Knights closed at +105 on Thursday, Game 4’s moneyline hit Vegas -105 quickly after opening. The total also fell from 6 to 5.5, which is the correct move.

Game 3 started very slowly as time and space becomes tighter as the series. Both teams have been heavily reliant on their top performers for offense, but the difference in this series is the play of the Vegas blue line, which was the driving factor in there only being 11 total shots recorded in the first 20 minutes of the previous game.

The Knights blocked an incredible 31 shots in Game 3 — way up from their playoff average of 18 blocks per game — although Vegas did enter into the playoffs as the best shot-blocking team in hockey.

It’s hard to block high-danger chances, so Vegas head coach Bruce Cassidy has his team containing things to the outside in the defensive zone, creating more low-quality shot attempts from Florida, which his team has no issues stepping in front of. Brayden McNabb had seven (!) blocked shots in Game 3 and the team had more blocks than Florida had shots on net.

Another thing that continues to propel the Knights is their power play — or possibly how poor the Florida special teams have been. Vegas is 6-for-17 on the PP this series, with two goals in each of the three games, while the penalty kill is a perfect 12-for-12.

The Florida power play looks out of sync, especially in Game 3 where it went 0-for-5 with just four shots on goal. 

Hill just has to play to expected Saturday night for the Knights to have a better than 50% chance to win and even though Sergei Bobrovsky finally woke up in the series, the probability of him going on another run of .956 SV% hockey is low — through three games, the Panthers have a save percentage of 84.3% at all strengths. 

If this game is played more at 5-on-5, I do give the Panthers a better probability of winning... but considering how we saw Game 3 called, I doubt we see the whistles put away tonight.

There are some even-money odds out there for Vegas and think that’s where my cutoff is for a side. The total is not a play for me and will likely need power-play help to hit the Over. 

Golden Knights vs Panthers betting trend to know

The Golden Knights are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games after scoring two goals or fewer in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Panthers.

Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 4 game info

Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
Date: Saturday, June 10, 2023
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET

Golden Knights vs Panthers Game 4 injuries

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