The Detroit Red Wings are riding a six-game losing streak and now embark on a six-game road trip. They kick off this stretch in Florida against the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning, who have begun the year 5-2 SU, as just one of two games on today's NHL betting slate.
NHL odds have the Lightning as a heavy -323 home favorite with the total sitting at 5.5, shaded heavily to the Over and trending up.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lighting for Wednesday, February 3, with a weird start time of 5:30 p.m. ET.
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
Injuries
Red Wings: Tyler Bertuzzi F (Questionable), Robby Fabbri F (Out), Jonathan Bernier G (Questionable), Filip Zadina F (Out).
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov F (Out), Anders Nilsson G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Red Wing are 4-22 SU in the last 26 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Lightning.
NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonTampa Bay opened a massive -315 chalk at DraftKings and is up to -345 as of 1 p.m. ET. Even at the very heavy price, 90 percent of moneyline bets and 93 percent of moneyline dollars are on the Lightning. The total has moved a bit on the price, from 5.5 (Over -124) to 5.5 (Under -112), but the Over is still getting 81 percent of bets and 89 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePuck Line Pick
It’s not too often we see a +255 underdog in the NHL but here we are and it’s not unwarranted. The Red Wings are the second-worst team in the league on a points-per-game basis. They own the league’s worst penalty-kill, are Bottom 6 on the powerplay, generate the third-lowest shots per game and are scoring the second-fewest goals per game at 2.00. Betting on the Red Wings takes some serious stones.
Compounding the already numerous problems is that Detroit’s top goalscorer, Tyler Bertuzzi, missed Sunday’s game and is questionable to play tonight. The forward has a team-high five goals and has a point in each of Detroit’s four powerplay goals this year. Detroit is also taking its longest road trip of the year traveling from home to Florida as Wednesday’s game will be the start of a six-game road trip.
The Lightning have started the year a perfect 4-0 SU at home this year and have covered -1.5 in three of those four games. Tampa Bay has dropped just one game in regulation this year and even without star forward Nikita Kucherov, the 2020 champs are still potting nearly 3.5 goals per game.
Although +255 odds are almost always worth it, the travel and early puck drop – combined with the injury to Bertuzzi – can’t be understated. If we want to make any money here on Tampa Bay, we’re going to have to take the puck line.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay -1.5 (-125)
Over/Under Pick
Combined, both teams are 7-10 O/U to begin the year with Detroit hitting the Under in seven of its 10 matches. Expecting the Red Wings to score three goals is a lot to ask, considering they’ve done it in just 20 percent of their games.
Detroit will likely start Thomas Greiss in net and even though he is winless in six starts, he is the best goalie in Detroit and has allowed just four regulation goals over his last two starts.
Tampa has done a great job at keeping the puck out of the net, allowing 2.29 goals against per game which ranks as the fifth-best mark in the league. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has surrendered more than two goals just twice across his seven starts this year and is well on his way to another Vezina nomination.
Both teams aren’t heavily reliant on the powerplay, with each club sitting under 1.0 power-play goals per game and ranking in the bottom half of the league in power-play chances per game.
Taking the Under is a great hedge with benefits for our Tampa Bay puck line. The Lightning will be doing most of the scoring Wednesday evening and if the Over does hit, Tampa will likely cover.
The total opened at 5.5, but it looks to be trending towards the 6 and we would advise you to wait and get that extra half-goal before hitting the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (+100)
Red Wings vs Lightning Betting Card
- Tampa Bay -1.5 (-125)
- Under 5.5 (+100)
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