Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Have a Hartman

Prop bet #1: Down on a D-man

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a tough spot tonight at home vs. the Carolina Hurricanes, who enter tonight 6-2 straight up over their last 10 and have conceded just 15 goals over that stretch. Frederik Andersen is back and the former Leafs netminder has stopped 63 of 66 shots since returning from his extended absence.

The Leafs could struggle to generate offense tonight, which has me fading their skaters’ point totals. Mitch Marner is out and recently promoted first-line winger Calle Jarnkrok is also out. The lines are being mixed up again and facing a Carolina team that sits in the Top 5 in basically every 5-on-5 defensive metric isn’t going to help the Leafs muster up the offense. 

Morgan Rielly is a decent -110 to go pointless tonight. The defenseman has points in just four of the 10 games since returning from a suspension and the Toronto power play has just a single goal over its last eight while the Canes are a perfect 17-for-17 on the penalty kill over their last five. 

Rielly will likely have a new defense partner tonight as well with Ilya Lyubushkin very questionable after missing practice on Friday. Lyubushkin is a defensive-minded rearguard which allows Rielly to join in the offensive play more often, Without him, Rielly could be taking fewer offensive chances on Saturday night. 

With some missing offensive talent and playing arguably the stingiest team in the league, Rielly’s Under 0.5 points at -110 is the best way to approach this game from a prop angle. Toronto’s team total Under 2.5 at +130 is also something to look at if you want bigger odds. 

Morgan Rielly prop:  Under 0.5 points (-110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Stacking shots

I’ve done pretty well with grouping Over 1.5 SOG props for plus money of late and today I’ve targeted another pair that’s paying +159.

I’m a big Jack Roslovic fan. The former first-rounder has gotten his feet wet with the New York Rangers and is enjoying life on the second line and second power-play unit. He is coming off a two-point game vs. the Bolts and tallied three SOG in just 14:33 minutes. That ice time won’t get any lower and could increase tonight vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are giving up 31.4 shots on goal at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. 

I like Roslovic’s Over 2.5 SOG at +175 but am happy to take his Over 1.5 at a decent -175 as part of the two-leg parlay.

The second piece of this bet is with another trade acquisition in Anthony Duclair. The newest member of the Tampa Bay Lightning has recorded seven shots with two goals and an assist in his two games. He's something the team has been missing, which is a shoot-first second-line forward who can be the trigger-man on the second power-play unit.

Like Roslovic, Duclair has been producing with a low time on ice, which could increase with more reps with the club. His matchup vs. the Panthers isn’t a great one, but Florida has given up 30+ shots in three straight games and the Bolts will want to avenge a 9-2 loss to Florida from back on February 17.

Duclair also finished Thursday’s 6-3 win on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov so there is a good chance he gets top-line minutes tonight. 

Pairing these two shooters on the Over 1.5 SOG is paying a decent +159. I like both guys at Over 2.5 SOG as well, and if you’re really looking for a pay, the Over 2.5 SOG parlay is a hefty +760. 

SOG parlay prop: Jack Roslovic Over 1.5 SOG + Anthony Duclair Over 1.5 SOG (+159 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Opportunity is a Knockin'

The St. Louis Blues have been a great target for opposing SOG Overs as only two other teams are allowing more shots on goal at 5-on-5 over the last 10. Looking back on just their last six games, their 37 shots allowed per game is the most in hockey.

The best Minnesota Wild player to target for an Over here is Ryan Hartman. He was recently promoted to the top line with Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy as well as the first power-play unit. He's had a pair of great SOG matchups over his last two games vs. Arizona and Anaheim and finished with six and five SOG, respectively. His TOI is also up over three minutes since replacing the injured Joel Eriksson Ek. 

The Blues have also been playing competitively of late and that means a better shooting game script for the Wild who could be playing from behind tonight.

This top line is going to see a ton of ice time and Hartman sits third on the team on shot attempts/60. An increase in minutes isn’t fully priced into his Over 2.5 SOG at -125 tonight. 
 
Ryan Hartman  prop: Over 2.5 SOG (-125 at Bet99)