Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: McDavid Answers the Bat Signal

Prop bet #1: Vladimir Tarashotko

The series returns back to Sunrise where the Florida Panthers are averaging 37 shots per game over their last four. The Panthers have dominated the shot-attempt differential in this series at 63.5%, which leads all Round 2 matchups. Their 65% shot differential is also the best of the remaining eight teams. There’s no reason to get off the SOG market today, and Vladimir Tarasenko's odds are the target tonight. 

The playoff veteran has great company on the top line next to Alexander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. Since the promotion, he's playing more than two minutes per game than his playoff average, and although it’s just 15+ minutes of ice time, he had four Shots in Game 4 on a team-high nine shot attempts.

He is -150 for two or more shots, which means there is a ladder opportunity here with 3+ paying +210 and 4+ paying +550. Boston could play with a lot of heart today in the elimination game, meaning Florida could be playing from behind, or the home side could just continue to dominate the possession and shooting game in the series. 

Vladimir Tarasenko prop: Over 1.5 SOG (-150 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Stat padder

With this being an elimination game, there could be multiple empty-net opportunities for the Panthers, and the line that Paul Maurice trusts the most late in the game is the Barkov line. That’s giving some extra value to Aleksander Barkov's odds, as his line could have multiple shifts with an empty cage. 

There are two ways to play this as I see. With already a decent risk on Tarasenko, getting Barkov for an apple is the way I’m playing this.
 
The two-way center has five assists through four games in the series and eight over nine postseason games. Playing with Reinhart is a great place to stack assists and the Florida power play is 6-for-18 over the last three games.

Not to sound too aggressive, he is +450 for two assists which is something he’s hit twice in the series and three times in the playoffs.

Alexander Barkov prop: Over 0.5 assists (-110 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Connor game

There is a lot to unpack in the Vancouver/Edmonton game as Calvin Pickard will be the starter for the Oilers while coach Kris Knoblach is potentially going to play 11 forwards and seven defensemen.

Kris Knoblauch on potentially playing 11 forwards and 7 defensemen: Offensively with the forwards, it's a lot easier to double shift 97 and 29 and have them right back on the ice with another line. #Oilers @Sportsnet650

— Brendan Batchelor (@BatchHockey) May 14, 2024

Either way, with the Edmonton Oilers down 2-1 in the series and Edmonton not wanting to go to Vancouver down 3-1, it will be another Connor McDavid game, just like we saw in Game 2. In that pivotal match, he finished with a goal, three assists, and five shots on net and likely could have been credited with more SOG if not for one of the stingiest scorekeepers in hockey in Vancouver. 

It’s hard to find value in Connor McDavid's odds when betting Overs, but with his Over 3.5 SOG moving significantly and his shot volume in the playoffs lower than in the regular season, I’m backing his Over 1.5 assists at +120.

His Over 1.5 points is -180 alone, and as I mentioned above, he is shooting less in the playoffs, so the chances of those two points being helpers are very good. 

Arturs Silvos has given up at least three goals in each game of the series and hasn’t been strong, with a save percentage below .890 in the series. Leon Draisiatl got the afternoon skate off today but looks to be good to go, and when 97 works hard, nobody in the world can keep up with him. 

Connor McDavid prop: Over 1.5 assists (+115 at BET99)