Something’s got to give on Tuesday night as the Arizona Diamondbacks, who stand 12-13 on the year on the road, square off with the Texas Rangers, who are 12-13 at home this season.
Both teams have had their fair share of struggles in May, but the Diamondbacks do enter this one with three wins in their last five while the Rangers are fresh off a win on Monday which snapped a six-game losing streak
Can Brandon Pfaadt deliver a second straight win for Arizona, or will it be Dane Dunning’s turn to shine for Texas?
Let's get right into our MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs. Rangers predictions for Tuesday, May 28.
Diamondbacks vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Brandon Pfaadt’s first pro season was a big, long journey. He began with some awful results in his first full month, pitching to an ERA over eight, before he was sent back to the minors and returning with more palatable results. He seemed to figure things out on the fly as the year wore on, mixing in some good starts and ultimately finding some splendid form in the playoffs.
After that run, much was expected from his sophomore campaign. It started out dreadfully, but in May he’s pitched to a clean 3.24 ERA in four starts which is a much better indicator of his development. Pfaadt owns a 3.00 Expected ERA according to Statcast on account of a very nice 4.5% walk rate and better returns on contact with a 37.7% hard-hit rate and above-average 37.7% hard-hit rate.
The issue here for Pfaadt is that he’s still a fly ball pitcher, and will step into a park where they’re tough to keep in the yard. The good news, however, is that the Texas Rangers are slashing just .216/.303/.369 against fly-ball arms this year and rank just 24th in wRC+ during that span. They’ve lost their way with just Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia contributing at the dish and injuries to their starters have made life even tougher.
Those in the lineup are at least playing their positions well, helping Texas to a third-ranked 11 Outs Above Average in the field, and that should help Dane Dunning once again pitch underneath his expected numbers. He’s allowed more hard-hit balls and walks this year which is certainly concerning, but he’s also upped his strikeout rate by eight points to 27.8% and will meet an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has both struggled in the strikeout and walk departments over the past two weeks.
Arizona and Texas both grade well below average offensively over this span, and with enough redeeming qualities for both pitchers I think they should be able to look effective on Tuesday night.
Diamondbacks vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP
Under 8.5
Josh Smith to record a hit
Kevin Newman to record a hit
Pfaadt may be pitching above the strikeout rate we can expect from him given his rather low whiff rate and the Rangers have not struck out much at all over the course of the season.
That brings me to the hitters here, as much as I may think both teams should struggle. We can drink some juice here given the combination of offense and under will boost our odds, so I’ve picked out two guys to record a hit.
The first is Josh Smith, who has hit .300 over the past two weeks and is a nice .250 against fly-ball pitchers as opposed to .188 against ground-ballers. He has also hit “finesse” pitchers, as classified by Baseball Reference, quite well at .306.
The next guy is Kevin Newman, and admittedly I’ll have to hold my breath as I do it. The fact of the matter is, though, that he’s been one of the best bat-to-ball guys on the team when he’s played, hitting .294 over the last two weeks, and against a righty he should be good for three plate appearances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Rangers odds
Diamondbacks vs Rangers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 | Texas +1.5
- Moneyline: Arizona -115 | Texas -104
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Diamondbacks vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks were first offered around -115 on the moneyline, and after some slight movement towards -120 in the early betting window the odds have shortened to -130 to win.
- The total was initially set at 8.5 runs and remains there early on Tuesday afternoon with no movement to speak of, even in the price.
- DraftKings is reporting that 47% of the bets and 51% of the cash are on the Diamondbacks.
- The Over seems like the clear choice of bettors with 61% of the tickets and 62% of the handle heading that way.
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Diamondbacks vs Rangers trend
The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Rangers
Diamondbacks vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, Bally Sports Southwest |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (2-3, 4.05 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Dane Dunning (3-3, 4.43 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Rangers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Rangers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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