Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Matthews Pursuit of 70 Keeps Going vs. Penguins

Prop bet #1: More Matthews Monday

The shots and attempts are up for Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews, and the eye test shows an entire team looking to dish to the star scorer. He’s up to 55 shots and 99 attempts across his past 10 contests, with his 16.21 shots and 29.17 attempts per 60 minutes well above his respective 12.18 and 22.99 marks across the first 65 games of the campaign.

I also value these Auston Matthews odds because he averages 4.65 shots per game on home ice compared to 4.18 on the road, and the Pittsburgh Penguins have allowed 30 shots or more in five of their past seven and been outshot in each of their past five road games.

Auston Matthews prop: Over 4.5 shots (-105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Pens will need Nedeljkovic

The Pittsburgh Penguins are making a late-season surge to a postseason position, and new No. 1 goalie Alex Nedeljkovic has been a big reason why. He’s sporting a .917 save percentage across his past 11 appearances, and Pittsburgh has also surrendered 30 or more shots in five of its past seven games.

I’m anticipating Nedeljkovic seeing the necessary shot volume to clear this saves total on Monday. The Toronto Maple Leafs climb to 33.3 shots and a 51.5 five-on-five Corsi For percentage on home ice compared to 31.9 and 49.8% marks on the highway.

There is also still plenty on the line for the Maple Leafs. Toronto is battling for playoff seeding, and stars Auston Matthews and William Nylander are chasing down statistical milestones. Finally, I also value these Alex Nedeljkovic odds because Pittsburgh has been outshot in six of its past seven contests, including all five on the road.

Alex Nedeljkovic prop: Over 27.5 saves (-125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Fading Filip

After the Vegas Golden Knights topped the Vancouver Canucks 6-3 last Tuesday, I’m expecting goals to be a little more difficult to come by this time around. Especially with Vegas coming off a 7-4 loss to the Arizona Coyotes, and Vancouver losing 6-3 to the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday.

Vancouver defenseman Filip Hronek is having a breakout offensive season, and he’s found the scoresheet in three of his past four contests. The uptick in scoring was coming because of his top-pairing role, but I expect the offense to dry up again in short order. Vancouver faced the basement-dwelling Arizona Coyotes and Anaheim Ducks in two of the noted contests, and Hronek registered just four points across his prior 19 contests.

Additionally, I value these Filip Hronek odds because he recorded an unsustainably high 2.17 points per 60 minutes across the first 52 games of the season, and that production is still priced into these odds. He posted a 1.4 mark across the previous three years, and Hronek is down to just 0.88 points per 60 over the past 35 games.

Filip Hronek prop: Under 0.5 points (-125 at Bet99)