Oilers vs Golden Knights Picks and Predictions: Bank on the Over Again, Even If It Hits 6.5

Two of the Western Conference's hottest clubs link up Saturday night when the Golden Knights host the Oilers. While who will actually win is a toss-up in our eyes, the Over/Under is a much more confident bet in a game with McDavid, Draisaitl & Co.

Last Updated: Nov 26, 2021 10:59 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Leon Draisaitl Edmonton Oilers NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Vegas Golden Knights are getting healthy and will look to push their way up the Pacific Division standings Saturday as they welcome Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers to T-Mobile Arena.

Both clubs are 8-4 SU this month, which is the second-best mark in the league, but Vegas is the NHL betting favorite for this weekend tilt.

Can the Golden Knights bottle up the top-two scorers in the league? Will Edmonton pick up its first back-to-back road win this month? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Golden Knights on Saturday, November 27.

Oilers vs Golden Knights odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Vegas opened at -120 on the moneyline with a total of 6 that's shaded heavily to the Over. These two teams met in Vegas back on October 22, where Edmonton closed at +113 on the ML with a total of 6.5 (+100 to the Over) — Edmonton won that game 5-3. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Oilers vs Golden Knights predictions

Predictions made on 11/26/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Oilers vs Golden Knights game info

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Saturday, November 27, 2021
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Citytv, Rogers Sportsnet Ontario/West/Pacific, ATTSN-RM

Oilers vs Golden Knights betting preview

Injuries

Oilers: Mike Smith G (Out), Duncan Keith D (Questionable), Darnell Nurse D (Out), Derek Ryan F (Questionable).
Golden Knights: Jonathan Marchessault F (Questionable), Brett Howden F (Out), William Karlsson F (Out), Alec Martinez D (Out), Jack Eichel F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Oilers vs Golden Knights head-to-head record (since 2018)

Oilers: 3-5 SU, 20 goals for.
Golden Knights: 5-3 SU, 27 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in Golden Knights’ last six games vs. the Pacific Division. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Golden Knights.

Oilers vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Although still dealing with a handful of other injuries, the Vegas Golden Knights are starting to get healthy as top-six forwards Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are back in the lineup. Pacioretty suited up Wednesday in a convincing 5-2 win over the Predators, where the forward chipped in an assist on an empty-net goal to seal it.

On the other end of the pass was captain Mark Stone, who finished with a goal and an assist. Stone missed a month of action but has recorded five points in six games since returning to the lineup — with the Knights going 4-2 SU in those six contests. The welcomed-back duo makes up two-thirds of the team’s top line and will have a big role if coach Peter DeBoer decides to use it to slow down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

McJesus and Draisaitl sit No. 1 and 2 in the NHL points, while the German-born Draisaitl leads the league in goals. The team has been relying on some unfamiliar goaltending this season but it has led them to the second-best record in the Western Conference. 

With No. 1 Mike Smith still injured, goalie Stuart Skinner has been manning the crease of late for the Oilers, appearing in six of the team’s last nine games, going 2-3 SU (with a no-decision in a relief appearance) with a 2.44 goals-against average and a .928 save percentage. That’s in comparison to teammate Mikko Koskinen, who is struggling of late and owns a 3.84 GAA over that same stretch despite going 3-1 SU.

It’s not an ideal goalie situation, and one that has been getting bailed out by the team’s offense, but Vegas has been stellar at home of late (6-1 SU over its last seven games) and with their top line back together, Edmonton will need a strong performance in net.

On the other side, Vegas netminder Robin Lehner has settled down after a shaky October (that saw him go 3-4 SU) in going 6-3 SU this month. The Knights are a sneaky offensive team, however, having scored the third-most 5-on-5 goals in the league — Lehner's victories have a lot to do with the Vegas offense picking up the slack.

Defensively is where we start to dislike the Vegas ML. Only two teams have allowed more 5-on-5 goals than Vegas and its recent success has been scoring reliant, as Lehner's 2.91 GAA this month is only slightly better than October's 3.00 mark. The Golden Knights sit in the Bottom 5 in expected goal differential (between Buffalo and Ottawa) and injuries to Alec Martinez and William Karlsson (plus team goal-scoring leader Jonathan Marchessault being questionable) don’t help.

Ultimately, this game could come down to special teams — and that advantage lies with the visitors. Vegas sits in the middle of the league in penalty killing but has surrendered seven power-play goals over its last 10 games. Vegas was shorthanded six times in its last contest, which is a losing recipe against an Oilers’ power play that has registered multiple power-play goals in four of its last 10 games. 

Both clubs met on October 22 in Vegas, where Edmonton closed +112 on the ML and won 5-3 in a close game with the go-ahead goal being scored halfway through the third period. Vegas is healthier now but is paying worse — which indicates the books’ outlook on the visitors. 

Neither team is strong on the backend right now and is dealing with injuries. This moneyline likely won’t be a play for us but we’d be more inclined to take the visitors at this price. Yes, Vegas is a tough team on home ice and the return of Stone and Pacioretty are big boosts, but this team was +130 at home versus Carolina last week and just -139 at home versus the Red Wings earlier as well. The price adjustment seems too severe.

Prediction: Oilers ML (+100)

The moneyline wasn’t a play for us but the total sure is. Both clubs enter Saturday’s meeting at 12-7 O/U on the season, which is two of the best Over marks in the league. Looking strictly at this month’s numbers, the Oilers and Knights sit in the Top 7 in goals per game at better than 3.50 per contest but it’s the backend that has us reaching for the Over.

Both Lehner and the Oilers’ current goalies have been anything but stingy. The projected Vegas starter has allowed four or more goals in five of his last 10 starts and is 7-0-1 O/U in his last eight outings. On the Edmonton side, Koskinen has allowed 19 goals in his last five starts and only one Edmonton game in its last 12 overall has seen fewer than five total goals scored. 

Both penalty-killing units are league average at best. The Oilers have potted 23 power-play goals this season (No. 1 in the league) and sit eighth in even-strength goals while Vegas has seen 92 total 5-on-5 goals scored in its 20 games, which is the most in the league. 

This total closed at 6.5 in the October 22 meeting, which finished with eight total goals (six at even strength, one on the PP, and one empty net) and had 7.12 xGoals. This total opened at 6 but at -125 to the Over, it’s heading for 6.5 — which is still a play for us as both teams can score three here.

We’re taking the 6 but would still take the 6.5 if we missed it. 

Prediction: Over 6 (-125)

The last meeting’s total closed at 6.5 (+100 to the Over) and we’re likely heading to that same closing price. This month, Edmonton is seeing 6.84 total goals per game while the Golden Knights are at 6.50. That’s up from October — where the first meeting’s prices were based off of — when the Oilers were averaging 6.71 combined goals and Vegas 5.75.

The total goals per game is up for both teams since the October 22 meeting plus in their last 10 games, Vegas is 7-2-1 O/U and Edmonton is 6-4 O/U. 

With both teams sitting in the Bottom 7 in goals against at 5-on-5 and the last meeting producing six even-strength goals, we might not have to be heavily reliant on Edmonton power plays to cash this Over 6.

Pick: Over 6 (-125)

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