The Edmonton Oilers descend upon the Windy City to face the lowly Chicago Blackhawks tonight. These two teams met once this season as Edmonton won a high-scoring, 6-5 slugfest at the end of October.
Will the Oilers reign supreme again, or can the Blackhawks clap back? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Oilers vs Blackhawks on Wednesday, November 30.
Oilers vs Blackhawks best odds
Oilers vs Blackhawks picks and predictions
Edmonton has won three of its last five games while Chicago has lost a whopping seven in a row, which doesn't bode well for the home side. The Hawks have been bleeding goals, allowing five or more in five of their last six games.
Meanwhile, the Oilers have scored exactly four goals in three of their last five as the offense is starting to ramp up. These trends should continue in this contest with the Blackhawks’ disastrous season taking shape in earnest.
At 5v5, Chicago ranks 26th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Its roster is constructed like that of a tanking organization — which is precisely what it's attempting in an effort to get Connor Bedard in next year’s draft.
That is the reason it traded every valuable piece over the offseason outside of Patrick Kane — who is likely to get dealt prior to this season’s trade deadline. Backing up this lackluster lineup is goaltender Petr Mrazek, who has struggled mightily since joining the team.
Through eight starts this season, Mrazek is 1-5-1 with a .878 SV% and 4.28 GAA. If he qualified, Mrazek would rank dead last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.
Meanwhile, Edmonton’s offense is starting to play up to expectations with results matching its positive advanced metrics. Despite ranking 28th in the league in goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) at 5v5, it ranks sixth in xGF/60 at 5v5.
There is perhaps no better opponent to continue realizing this positive regression against than Chicago, a team the Oilers have already scored six goals on back in October. Last time out, the Hawks had absolutely no answer for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and nothing has changed since then to indicate this contest will be any different.
My best bet: Oilers team total Over 3.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
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Oilers vs Blackhawks moneyline analysis
The Oilers moneyline or puck line would also be great plays to make in this contest, however, I am just backing the trends and taking them to score four or more goals. Chicago’s defense has been terrible, and it is projected to be backed up by the worst analytical starting goaltender in the league.
Across the ice, goaltender Stuart Skinner is slated to take the crease for the Oilers. Through 11 appearances this season, he boasts a .919 SV% and 2.80 GAA.
Among starting goaltenders, Skinner ranks eighth in GSAx/60 at 5v5. While Edmonton allowed five goals to Chicago earlier this season, that was with Jack Campbell between the pipes — who is just as bad as Mrazek.
Oilers vs Blackhawks Over/Under analysis
The Blackhawks are a tough team to take totals on because they are one of the few squads in the league that struggled to both score and play defense. Their lack of scoring options suggest taking the Under, but their uninspired defense is also capable of allowing teams to score six goals, which is precisely what happened against the Oilers in October.
On one end of the ice, we have Skinner, who has been tremendous between the pipes this season. But at the other end, the worst analytical starting goaltender is slated to start for the Hawks.
As is typically the case for Chicago this season, the total is too tough to judge in this contest given the circumstances.
Oilers vs Blackhawks betting trend to know
Opposing teams have scored five or more goals in five of the last six games against the Blackhawks. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs Blackhawks.
Oilers vs Blackhawks game info
|Location:||United Center, Chicago, IL|
|Date:||Wednesday, November 30, 2022|
|Puck drop:||9:30 p.m. ET|