It’s the first super Saturday of the season with a full 16-game betting slate, including an Original Six matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings.
Morgan Rielly looked more like his usual offensively dangerous self in Game 1 of the season for Toronto, and I expect that to continue tonight, and his assist market looks awfully appetizing at plus-money.
Find out why with my free NHL picks and Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings predictions for this October 11 matchup.
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings prediction
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Best bet: Morgan Rielly Over 0.5 assists (+125)
The Toronto Maple Leafs get set for their second game of the season as they head to Detroit for the first game of a home-and-home series this weekend.
Neither team looked great in their season opener, so I expect a lot more intensity in this matchup, which should lead to some more offence on both sides.
The best player on the ice for the Buds Wednesday night was defenseman Morgan Rielly.
The veteran defenseman logged over 20 minutes and recorded a goal and an assist, while registering a team-high five shots on goal. Rielly looked far more assertive than he did a season ago, and if that remains, he’ll certainly muster up more offensive production this year.
Considering the Red Wings allowed five goals on 13 shots the other night, I expect the Leafs to score early and often.
Thus, I’m intrigued by his assist prop, which is set at +125.
Additionally, Rielly has returned to the point on the first unit power play. After a poor showing for the top unit on opening night, I expect them to be more direct and productive in this game.
So whether it’s pushing the pace and jumping up into the rush at 5-on-5 or quarterbacking the top PP unit, I expect Rielly to factor in offensively, and an assist is the most likely way he’ll get on the scoresheet.
Furthermore, Rielly has eight assists in his last 10 games against Detroit, a team that couldn't get a save Thursday against Montreal. I expect the Buds to score and Rielly to be in on the action.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings same-game parlay
With the second leg of the SGP, I’ll take Auston Matthews to score an anytime goal. He needs to rebound after a poor performance in the season opener. Plus, he has seven goals in his last 10 games against Detroit, including at least one goal in three straight games.
For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll take William Nylander to go Over 2.5 shots on goal. He was held to just one in the season opener, but that’s an uncharacteristic stat line for him.
Last season Nylander averaged 3.08 shots on net per game and has a 70% hit rate in the past 10 meetings against the Red Wings.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings SGP
- Morgan Rielly Over 0.5 assists
- Auston Matthews anytime goal
- William Nylander Over 2.5 shots
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings odds
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs -146 | Red Wings +122
- Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-164) | Red Wings +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+108) | Under 6.5 (-132)
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings trend
The Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Red Wings
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN-DET, CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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