The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to sweep their three-game California road trip Sunday as they travel to the Honda Center to take on the Anaheim Ducks. The Leafs have won 13 of their last 15 and are tied for the most points in the league at 31, while the Ducks just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 4-0 win over the Senators Friday.
Can the Leafs keep up this incredible run where they’ve lost just twice in over 30 days? Can the Ducks start another eight-game winning streak? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Ducks.
Maple Leafs vs Ducks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Toronto opened at -160 on the ML with the total opening at 5.5 and leaning to the Over. The Leafs closed -140 versus the Sharks and -160 against the Kings while the Ducks most recently closed at +130 at home versus the Hurricanes (-150).
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Ducks predictions
- Prediction: Mpale Leafs 3-way ML (-105)
- Prediction: Under 5.5 (-105)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-105)
Predictions made on 11/27/2021 at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Ducks game info
• Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Sunday, November 28, 2021
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSC, BSSD, TSN4
Maple Leafs vs Ducks betting preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Questionable), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Ducks: Max Comtois F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Ducks head-to-head record (since 2016)
Maple Leafs: 7-3 SU, 38 goals for.
Ducks: 3-7 SU, 26 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last six overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Ducks.
Maple Leafs vs Ducks picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
The Leafs will be looking for their 14th win in 16 games and to keep pace with the league’s best at the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Toronto has had an all-business approach to the California road swing, with no off-days and some of the hardest practices of the year.
“We didn’t come out here for vacation, we came here to play hockey” forward Wayne Simmonds told Leaf beat reporter David Alter after his team’s 4-1 win over the Sharks Saturday night, where the forward netted the game-winning goal. “I think we’re one of the hardest-practicing teams I’ve been on in my career. We’re having success so why change that?”
The results are speaking for themselves. Toronto has gone 13-2 SU in its last 15 games after starting the season 2-5 SU and getting blasted in the media. Coach Sheldon Keefe has this team focused, and in seasons past, where the Leafs would too often take a game off following a big win, Keefe has this team committed to consistency.
Saturday’s night’s 4-1 win was especially impressive, as backup goalie Joseph Woll got the start and Ondrej Kase was scratched due to maintenance. Woll picked up his second consecutive win in just his third NHL start but will give way to No. 1 Jack Campbell Sunday. Campbell leads the league in GAA (1.68), save percentage (.943) and wins (11). He’s 9-2 SU with a 1.36 GAA since October 27 and is making an early case for the Vezina.
Special teams are also a huge reason for the Leafs’ success. They scored another power-play goal in San Jose Saturday to make it seven PP goals in their last 10 games. They also kept the Sharks’ power play off the board and have given up a PP goal in just one of their last 10 games. Toronto owns the No. 6 PP and the No. 7 penalty kill in the league.
The Ducks will be tasked in slowing down the juggernaut that is the Leafs. Anaheim was riding an eight-game winning streak, but have since lost four of their last five games. The wins came as the Ducks held their opponents to two or fewer goals in seven of the eight victories, but keeping this Toronto offense off the scoresheet will be tough to do, especially since it has found it’s even-strength mojo with eight 5-on-5 goals over its last two games.
The Leafs sit No. 1 in xgoals for at 5-on-5 and those expected goals are starting to go in. The numbers are starting to progress to the mean and the Leafs are getting positive xgoal% from three lines. They face a Ducks squad that sits in the middle of the league in most 5-on-5 metrics.
Toronto could also be back to full strength up front as Ondrej Kase could draw back in against his former team after a game off Saturday. Kase suiting up would balance the team’s bottom-two lines that were Frankensteined Saturday night and finished with some poor xgoal percentages. The Leafs won 4-1 and didn’t play a flawless game by any means at even strength.
It will be tough for the Ducks to skate away with a win here. Goalie John Gibson’s heater looks to be over, as he has dropped three straight and allowed 10 goals over that stretch. The Ducks could go with Anthony Stolarz in net Sunday, as he is coming off a shutout versus the Senators, but Ottawa is still dealing with strict COVID protocols and came into that game as +150 dogs. Stolarz is playing above his talent and owns a 3.34 career GAA over five NHL seasons.
The Leafs have beaten some of the hottest goaltenders in the league on this road trip and get the league’s best netminder back as well. Keefe has this team as sharp and focused as it's ever been. The only team that seems to be able to beat the Leafs sometimes is themselves, and they aren't doing that right now.
They closed -160 on the ML in LA and -140 in San Jose. This -160 price is bang on, but it's the better team in regulation on the 3-way ML for us.
Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-105)
Over/Under analysis
We took a hit on the total on Saturday, as neither team could pot the sixth goal and save us some money, with zero goals were scored in the final 30 minutes of play after five goals in the first half. The Under pushed the Leafs’ O/U record to 7-14 on the season, which is the best Under mark in the league. The Ducks are also playing some Under hockey of late, going 3-7 O/U in their last 10.
Anaheim has been stingy at even-strength (Top 10 in goals against) and owns a top-five PK. The goaltending has been overachieving, but this is still a defensive-minded club that would prefer to win low-scoring games.
Campbell has been a tough goalie to cash Overs with as well. On the season, he's 4-12 O/U in his 16 games, which is a tough trend to bet against. The Toronto Overs are heavily reliant on them scoring four or five goals and the Ducks have given up more than three goals just twice in their last 12 games.
Both teams have great penalty kills and take and draw penalties below league averages. Getting two-plus special team goals seems improbable here with the goaltending and PK strengths of both teams.
We aren’t as high on the total as we are on the side, but trying to make money on the Leafs’ Overs this year has been a losing cause.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (-105)
Best bet
The Leafs are playing the best hockey in the NHL right now and seem committed to working hard every game, which used to be a problem in the past. Stringing together victories, convincing or not, has become this team’s M.O., as it has found different ways to win each night, whether that’s a 5-2 blowout or a 2-1 tightly-checked battle. Keefe has the pieces to be competitive against any team in the league and can beat you in so many ways.
Not only is this the highest-scoring team at even-strength, per xgoal metrics, but it has also has the third-lowest team GAA (2.16) and has scored the fourth-most PP goals in the league.
Anaheim is coming off an incredible eight-game winning streak and is still priced as +140 home underdogs versus Toronto. Anaheim closed at +130 at home versus the Hurricanes last week, which shows how much faith the books have in Toronto. We’re going to enjoy these Leafs ML prices for now, because when the Leafs get back home, we’ll likely be seeing -200-plus lines again, and that’s where they should be. The Ducks are the fourth-best team in their division, at best.
Pick: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-105)
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