Morgan Rielly has been a consistent shooter this season, and my Maple Leafs vs. Capitals predictions are backing his shot market again tonight against a team allowing high shot volumes.
Find out more with my free NHL picks for this matchup on Thursday, December 18.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals prediction
Maple Leafs vs Capitals best bet: Morgan Rielly Over 1.5 shots on goal (-130)
It’s been an up-and-down month for the Toronto Maple Leafs, primarily due to inconsistent play from the team’s biggest stars.
However, there is one prop that has been hitting with regularity over the last month, and that’s the Over on Morgan Rielly’s shot totals.
His shot market is set at 1.5, a number he’s surpassed in four straight contests against the Washington Capitals, and in 11 of his last 14 games this season, averaging 2.35 shots per game.
Washington has hit a dry spell lately, dropping four of its last five games. In this stretch, the Caps have struggled in their own zone, allowing more than 30 shots in each contest, giving up 36.6 shots on average per night.
They’ve also been undisciplined throughout this stretch, playing short-handed 17 times, which has contributed to the lofty shot totals.
In addition to leading the Leafs in ice time at 5-on-5, Rielly is back on the first power-play unit and should get more shot opportunities if the Caps continue their parade to the sin bin.
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Maple Leafs vs Capitals same-game parlay
I’ll continue to pound the Maple Leafs shot market with the Caps surrendering 36.6 shots over their last five outings.
Auston Matthews is averaging 3.7 shots per game since returning from injury and needs a big bounce-back game after a pair of stinkers earlier this week.
Toronto averages 3.28 goals per game, and the Caps have allowed three or more goals in four of their last five outings.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals SGP
- Morgan Rielly Over 1.5 shots on goal
- Auston Matthews Over 3.5 shots on goal
- Maple Leafs team total Over 2.5
Maple Leafs vs Capitals odds
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs +130 | Capitals -150
- Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-190) | Capitals -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (+105)
Maple Leafs vs Capitals trend
The Maple Leafs are 6-4 in the last 10 games between the two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Capitals
| Location | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date | Thursday, December 18, 2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet Ontario, MNMT |
Maple Leafs vs Capitals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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