Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Picks: Haves and Hab-Nots

Feb 13, 2021 |
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Picks: Haves and Hab-Nots
Toronto has been the top team in the NHL this season, and is currently red-hot, picking up 17 of a possible 18 points in its last nine games.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Toronto has been the top team in the NHL this season, and is currently red-hot, picking up 17 of a possible 18 points in its last nine games.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Is there anything more hockey than a Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs matchup on Saturday night?

The league’s No. 1 team will host the Canadiens at Scotiabank Arena for a Valentine's Eve tilt of the North Division’s top two teams. 

Oddsmakers have the Maple Leafs as a -125 favorite with an opening total of 6 trending to the Over.

Here are our free NHL picks and predictions for Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs for Saturday, February 13 (7:00 PM EST).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens Betting Preview


Maple Leafs: Wayne Simmons F (out), Nick Robertson F (out), Joe Thorton F (out), Jack Campbell G (out). 
Canadiens: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens.

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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Toronto opened -142 on the FanDuel moneyline, dipped a few cents to -138 and rose as high as -148. As of 3:30 p.m. ET, the Maple Leafs are back at the -142 opener, while drawing 78 percent of bets and 82 percent of money. The total hasn't budged off 6.5, not even on the price of a flat -110, although the Under is attracting 64 percent of bets/60 percent of cash.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Moneyline Pick

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be looking to pick up their season-high fifth straight win Saturday night as they finish a unique two-game set versus the Montreal Canadiens

Toronto traveled to Montreal for Wednesday’s game and has been off since. Montreal followed Wednesday’s game with a Thursday match against the Oilers — a 3-0 loss — before hitting the road for Ontario.

Toronto took the first game by a score of 4-2 but didn’t have a lead until the third period and was outshot 35-24. A closer look at advanced metrics shows the high-quality chances being very even. The biggest difference being Toronto’s defense chipping in offensively, as two of Toronto’s goals were by blueliners. The win moved the Leafs to 2-0 SU on the season series.

The 4-2 win was the Leafs’ fourth straight -1.5 cover and Sheldon Keefe’s squad has picked up 17 of a possible 18 points in its last nine games.

Saturday night’s tilt should feature the same starting goalies as Wednesday’s game, with Frederik Andersen and Carey Price. 

The Toronto goalie has fared well against the Habs over his career, with a 9-5 SU record with a GAA and save percentage better than his career marks. Andersen is 2-0 SU this year against Montreal and despite his recent heavy workload — six straight games — the Danish backstop is 5-1 SU with a 2.83 GAA and a .915 SV%.

Price will likely get the nod after backup Jake Allen played on Thursday. The Montreal starter is riding a subpar season with a sub-.900 SV% and a 4-4 SU record. He has dropped back-to-back games in regulation and with his team’s recent offensive struggles will have to play better to pick up a pair of points.

Up until February 2, the Canadiens were the highest-scoring team in the league. Now a dry spell has hit the offense as it has managed just six goals in its last four games (1-3 SU). The power play has been the biggest problem going 1-for-17 over the four-game stretch. 

Playing their third game in four days is a huge disadvantage for Montreal, as Toronto is well-rested. The Leafs are allowing just 2.14 goals at home this year, which could prove problematic for a Montreal team struggling to generate offense.

This is the best price we’ve seen for the Leafs at home this year.

PREDICTION: Toronto ML (-125)

Over/Under Pick

Both clubs sit at 6-7 O/U on the year, but Price is responsible for four of his team’s six Overs. In games that the Canadiens’ netminder has started, the average combined score is a whopping 7.25. 

The Leafs are coming off a Wednesday game where they went 0-for-4 on the power play. Coming into that game they were scoring on nearly 40 percent of their man advantages which was one of the best marks in the league. Montreal is in the bottom half of the league in penalty killing and fourth in the league in time short-handed per game. It’s only a matter of time before the talented group of Toronto special teamers starts to bury again.

The numbers like the Leafs to score, but can the Habs help chip in for the Over? 

They've managed just six goals over their last four and, as mentioned, are 1-for-17 on the power play. Not exactly inspiring numbers. Toronto has failed to hit an Over this year when its opponent scores two or fewer goals.

But Montreal seems to always get up when they play Toronto. The Habs have averaged 3.75 goals per game against the Buds since the beginning of 2019, which includes a four-goal performance in the season opener this year.

Frederik Andersen has also looked average this year despite his 9-3 SU record. The Leafs’ goalie ranks 33rd in high-danger save percentage (.796), and a goals saved above average mark of +1.20 means he’s slightly better than the league average in goals saved. 

A Hockey Night in Canada match is the perfect backdrop for the Canadiens to get out of their slump, and the North’s second-place team should help contribute to an Over.

PREDICTION: Over 6 (-120)

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens Betting Card

  • Toronto ML (-125)
  • Over 6 (-120)
NHL Parlays

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