The Central Division’s Chicago Blackhawks host the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday evening. These two clubs most recently squared off on Wednesday, with Toronto grabbing a 5-2 victory on home ice.
Will the Leafs take care of business once again, or can the Hawks get their revenge on home ice? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks on Sunday, February 19.
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks best odds
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks picks and predictions
The Chicago Blackhawks’ tank for Connor Bedard continues to thrive, as they have now lost 21 of their past 31 games. Of those 21 losses, 19 have come by at least a two-goal margin, a trend that is likely to continue in this matchup.
Due to the construction of their roster and the extremely low effort of late, nothing should change for the Hawks as the season winds down. Possessing a terrible blueline, Chicago ranks second-to-last in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Backing up this leaky defense is goaltender Petr Mrazek, who has been one of the worst netminders in the NHL this season. Through 25 starts, Mrazek is 6-15-2 with a .885 save percentage (SV%) and 3.95 goals against average (GAA).
Based on his underlying metrics, brighter days are unlikely, as Mrazek ranks third-to-last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Combining his poor play with the terrible defense in front of him is a recipe for disaster, especially against the Toronto Maple Leafs’ powerhouse offense.
Over his last nine games against the Leafs, Mrazek is 1-7 with a .893 SV% and 3.37 GAA. Across the ice, goaltender Ilya Samsonov is slated to guard the cage for Toronto.
Through 27 appearances in the crease this season, Samsonov is 19-6-2 with a .918 SV% and 2.31 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks fifth in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.
In front of Samsonov is a strong two-way team that ranks in the top-eight of the league in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
With the better goaltender, offense, and defense, back the Leafs to take care of business against Chicago once again.
My best bet: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks moneyline analysis
If you like Toronto in this matchup, then taking the puckline at -120 is the direction to head instead of laying nearly three dollars on the moneyline. First of all, -300 is just way too much juice to lay on a side in an NHL game.
Secondly, if you are fading the Hawks, then it is the more profitable option to also fade them on the puck line. As mentioned above, 19 of their last 21 losses have come by at least a two-goal margin. They’re also a miserable 5-48 in their last 53 games against teams with a winning % above .600.
Meanwhile, nine of the Leafs’ last 12 wins have been by at least two goals, including Saturday’s 5-1 triumph over the Montreal Canadiens.
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks Over/Under analysis
Chicago is a tough team to gauge in regards to handicapping the total, as it is one of the few squads in the league that struggles to both score and shut down opposing offenses. It ranks in the bottom two of the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
Their lack of scoring options offensively would suggest taking the Under, but their uninspired defense and lackluster goaltender is also capable of allowing teams to notch six goals on their own.
On the flip side, Toronto is strong offensively, defensively, and in net, making the side a better play than the total.
If you must play the total, consider the Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two Original Six franchises, and 38-18-3 in the Maple Leafs’ last 59 road games.
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks betting trend to know
The betting favorite is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks.
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks game info
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, February 19, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
Sportsnet, ESPN+ |
Maple Leafs vs Blackhawks key injuries
