The Winnipeg Jets’ offense has awoken from its slumber and gets a great matchup tonight on the road vs. Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks who sit in the basement of the NHL by two points.
With the Winnipeg line shuffling done after the acquisition of Sean Monahan, the roles have fallen into to place and Gabe Villardi has been the catalyst yet again. The Jets should see goals come their way going forward after an unsustainable shooting clip during the majority of the last two months. The first-line winger will continue to be a factor.
I break down the NHL odds and offer my best free NHL picks for Jets vs. Blackhawks on Friday, February 23.
Jets vs Blackhawks odds
Jets vs Blackhawks predictions
When Kyle Connor went down with injury in December, it was Gabe Vilardi who stepped into his role and helped carry this offense. During the month Connor was on the shelf, the Winnipeg Jets went 12-2-2 and had the most points in hockey over that stretch. Vilardi was playing on the top line and was usually -175 for a point and around the same price for his Over 2.5-shot prop.
Vilardi averaged 2.94 shots per game over those 17 games and hit the Over on his shot prop in 12 of them including a streak of eight straight. Since Connor’s return, there has been an adjustment time for the entire offense that had the league’s worst shooting percentage for 45 days. However, the adjustment period is over and Vilardi is back to his shooting and scoring ways.
The winger jumped back up to the top line with Mark Scheifele and Connor three games ago and the numbers have been elite. He has four goals and four assists including six power-play points while also registering exactly four shots in each game. He is also seeing more than 90 seconds of ice time since the promotion compared to when Connor first returned.
His Over 2.5 SOG was an incredible +140 on Tuesday and despite the movement to +100, there is still value considering where this price was six weeks ago.
The matchup vs. the Chicago Blackhawks is priced in but it’s a great one. Just in Petr Mrazek’s last four games in net for Chicago, he’s seen 35, 38, 42, and 41 shots. Connor is coming back from a knee injury and isn’t the same high-volume shooter he was before and the offense is being driven by the winger. I’d play this prop to -140.
My best bet: Gabe Vilardi Over 2.5 shots on goal (+100 at SIA)
Jets vs Blackhawks same-game parlay
Over 5.5
Chicago team total Over 1.5
Winnipeg team total Over 3.5
This is a good price for an Over stack. Winnipeg should win this game 90 of 100 times and the chances of a 4+ goal game are very good, especially with how good the power play has been.
Connor Hellebuyck is playing at an average level of late which is to be expected after the wild run he had through Christmas to February, and the return of Bedard makes this Chicago offense competitive. Chicago should be able to score two or more tonight. Being at home also is a big deal for the Hawks who are scoring more than 0.5 more goals per game than on the road.
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Jets vs Blackhawks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I’m not running out to buy the Hawks on the ML as a +220 home dog and neither is the public as this line has not seen much movement. The total has seen some Under money which is hard to believe as it opened at 5.5 at -110 aside.
The Hawks are coming off a 3-1 loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday and are 1-3 SU since the return of Connor Bedard having been outscored 15 to eight. They are the worst team in hockey but at home, it should be noted, that they are a little better with a goal differential of -0.61 compared to -2.27 on the road.
At home, this is a better offense and one that might be able to flirt with two or three goals tonight vs. a Winnipeg team that has conceded the same amount of goals over its last 10 games that it had in its previous 17.
Connor Hellebuyck has been the betting favorite for the Vezina for a long time but he is starting to wear down and comes into tonight with league-average numbers over his last seven starts including a 3-4 SU record.
This isn’t a sell on the Chicago moneyline, but more of a pitch on the Over 5.5 at a great -105 price. It’s not often bettors see totals at his price which resembles something out of a playoff matchup.
The real driver for me here is with the Winnipeg offense. From January 1 to Valentine’s Day, the Jets were scoring just 2.19 goals per game over a 16-game sample. A lot of that had to do with an unsustainable shooting percentage and one that seems to be positively regressing.
There was an adjustment time with the new offense but after putting up 13 goals over the last three games including six power-play markers, the slump might be over. The Jets can touch four goals tonight and I’m penciling in the Hawks for two. There are plenty of avenues this Over 5.5 can hit even if the home side has just a single goal.
Jets vs Blackhawks betting trend to know
The Chicago Blackhawks have covered the 1P Puck Line in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+13.90 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Blackhawks.
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Jets vs Blackhawks game info
| Location: | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, February 23, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCH, TSN3 |
Jets vs Blackhawks latest injuries
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