Flyers vs Capitals Picks: Caps Dominance as Chalk Bad For Flyers

The Washington Capitals are 17-4 in their last 21 games as a favorite and have also defeated the Philadelphia Flyers in three consecutive games heading into tonight's matchup.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Apr 13, 2021 • 16:25 ET
Alex Ovechkin Washington Capitals NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Capitals get set to host the Philadelphia Flyers in NHL action on Tuesday night. 

The Caps are atop the East Division with a 27-11-4 record and NHL betting lines have them installed as -159 home favorites for this contest at Capital One Arena.

Here are our best free Flyers vs. Capitals picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 13, with the puck dropping at 7 p.m. ET. 

Flyers vs Capitals odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Washington hit FanDuel's odds board at -164, with a low point of -162 and high point of -172, and the moneyline is -164 as of 4:30 p.m. ET. Bettors are piling on the Capitals, to the tune of 87 percent of tickets and 92 percent of cash. The total opened at 6.5 (Under -120) and saw the price adjust to Over -112, but the Under is getting 52 percent of tickets/60 percent of dollars.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Flyers at Capitals betting preview

Injuries

Flyers: Ian Ratcliffe LW (Out), Morgan Frost C (Out).
Capitals: Michal Kempny D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 16-7 in the Flyers last 23 games overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Capitals.

Moneyline pick

The Capitals have won each of the last three games in the head-to-head this season, most recently a 5-4 victory in Philadelphia on March 13. 

While the Caps are tied with the New York Islanders atop the East Division, the Flyers are in sixth place and need to string together some wins if they want to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia was one of the league's most pleasant surprises last season, thanks to stingy defensive play and terrific goaltending. Both areas have taken a significant step back this year with the Flyers allowing the second-most goals per game in the league (3.51) and ranking 28th on the penalty kill. 

Now they face a Capitals team that is second in the league in scoring with 3.43 gpg, while having the fourth-best powerplay unit. Although the Caps rank a middling 18th in the league in goals allowed with 2.95, that's still a significantly better number than the Flyers.

Washington is fresh off an 8-1 beatdown of the Boston Bruins and is 17-4 in its last 21 games as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Flyers have lost three of their last four—including a second consecutive defeat against the pathetic Buffalo Sabres. 

With the Flyers just 4-13 in their previous 17 contests as an underdog, fade them on Tuesday night.

PREDICTION: Washington ML (-159)

Over/Under pick

These teams combined for nine goals when they last met up and have now gone Over the total in five of their last seven meetings. 

Flyers starting goalie Carter Hart looked like a future Vezina Trophy winner last year but has been brutal in 2021, posting a 3.79 goals-against average with an .872 save percentage in 24 games. As bad as the Flyers have looked in nets they have been solid up front, ranking 13th in the league with 2.95 goals per game. 

Led by future Hall of Famer Alex Ovechkin, and his 21 goals in 38 games, the Caps have been one of the league's most consistent offensive teams for the last decade. That said, Washington has an ongoing battle for their No. 1 goaltending gig with Ilya Samsonov (2.97 GAA, .894 SV%) likely starting today after Vitek Vanecek got the nod in the previous game.

These have been the two best Over teams in the league all year with the Flyers 27-14 O/U and the Caps 24-16 to the Over. Take the Over again. 

PREDICTION: Over 6 (-120)

Flyers vs Capitals betting card

  • Washington ML (-159)
  • Over 6 (-120)

Picks made on 04/13/2021 at 10:40 a.m. ET

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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