Flames vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Buds Stay Hot In Advantageous Matchup

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a 3-0 blanking of the Philadelphia Flyers Wednesday, have collected victories in six of their last seven games, and get to face a Calgary Flames team Friday that lost in Montreal last night and is on the backend of a traveling back-to-back.

Toronto (8-6 SU) opened Friday’s Hall of Fame Game as -154 NHL betting favorites on the moneyline but that price has moved up quickly as high as -180. Calgary (7-6 SU) will likely start Dan Vladar in net, while it makes sense for Jack Campbell to start for Toronto with a game in Buffalo tomorrow.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Flames vs. Maple Leafs for Friday, November 12.

Flames vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Flames vs Maple Leafs picks

• Toronto 3-way ML (+105)
• Over 5.5 (-121)

Picks made on 11/12/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Flames vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Friday, November 12, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, TSN

Flames vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Flames: Brett Ritchie F (Out).
Maple Leafs: John Tavares F (Questionable), Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Flames vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (2021)

Flames: 3-6 SU, 21 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 6-3 SU, 25 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in Flames’ last five games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Maple Leafs.

Flames vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Toronto 3-way ML (+105)

The Maple Leafs are coming off an impressive 3-0 blanking of the Flyers on Wednesday which was their sixth win in seven games. Over that stretch, they've outscored their opponents 23-14 and have held the opposing team to two goals or fewer five times — including two shutouts. 

Goalie Jack Campbell recorded both of those shutouts and has a .952 save percentage over his last six starts. He sits fifth in the league in both goals-against average and save percentage and is fourth in goals saved above expected. Our favorite metric about the Leafs’ netminder is the ability to vacuum up pucks and get a whistle. Campbell is one of the best goalies in the league at freezing the puck (a.k.a he doesn’t give up rebounds) and is in the Top 3 in puck freezes and puck freezes above expected — he is still available at 20/1 to win the Vezina.

The Leafs’ power play has also been a big reason they're stacking wins. They’ve scored in six straight games on the PP and even John Tavares’ (questionable) absence hasn’t slowed it down. With Tavares dealing with a lower-body injury, Nick Ritchie got the call for the PP1 on Wednesday and responded with a primary helper on the Leafs’ power-play goal versus the Flyers. Ritchie also finished that game with seven shots.

There has been a lot of talk about the Leafs’ reliance on scoring from it’s top lines but if the Bruins have shown us anything, as long as the bottom-six forwards are doing their job, teams can be successful with primary scoring. It’s not like the bottom two lines are playing poorly, they have a +/- of 0 over their last six games.

Toronto gets the advantage of playing a Calgary team that lost to Montreal last night, 4-2, and will likely sit its best player in goalie Jacob Markstrom, who took the loss yesterday. The Flames will likely turn to 24-year-old Dan Vladar, who is 2-0 SU this year but has bad peripherals with a 2.94 GAA and an .894 SV% and last played on October 26. 

Calgary has impressed to open the season but Markstom’s 1.81 GAA has a lot to do with that. The Flames do have the second-best 5-on-5 goal differential in the league — but the Leafs still lead the league by a fair margin in expected goals at even strength and expected goal differential. Calgary is also one of the best teams in regards to shots at net but as the Leafs proved Wednesday, Toronto can still dominate teams defensively even when losing the Corsi/Fenwick battle.

This is a great spot for the Leafs and the market was quickly corrected after opening TOR at -154 on the ML. Calgary with their back-up and traveling back-to-back from Montreal to Toronto is not an easy road trip. We’re taking the Leafs in regulation at +105, as Toronto won five of the nine meetings last season in regulation.

Over 5.5 (-121)

The Leafs have been the second-best Under team in hockey to open the season with a 5-9 O/U mark. Only the Kings have more Under wins than Toronto at 10. However, the market is starting to correct itself with this team as the usual 6s and 6.5s of seasons past are now 5.5s and 6s. Toronto has seen four 5.5s over their last six games and has split them 2-2 O/U. The two Unders were against Tampa, with Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, and a short-handed Vegas team. 

Getting a 5.5 total against a below-average and inexperienced backup like Vladar is a bit of a gift. Vladar’s two games finished 5-3 and 4-3 and the Flames’ offense will be looking to rebound after a poor showing in Montreal last night.

Offensively, the Flames can score at even strength with 2.52 goals per game. Their power play ranks in the Top 10, has scored in seven of its last 10 games, and they draw and take penalties at a Top-10 rate as well. Both power plays could find themselves on the score sheet Friday.

Each team is also prone to turnovers, sitting in the Top 3 in giveaways per game.

The Toronto defensive pairing of Justin Holl and Jake Muzzin has been bad all season and struggles with playing in its own end for long stretches of time. The D-men finished with a 37.8 Corsi For percentage Wednesday and allowed 23 shots at net — this pairing is likely the team's biggest weakness.

Playing a tired Calgary team and (hopefully) its backup, the Leafs have a great chance at topping their team total of 3.5 (-105 to the Over) and if the Flames can get two, this could easily be a 5-2 game. This total will likely hit 6 before puck drop.

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