Matthew Tkachuk Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Panthers vs Oilers Game 1

Our NHL betting picks are calling for a strong start to the Stanley Cup Final for Matthew Tkachuk. Find out what player props to target for the Florida Panthers star tonight.

Ryan Gilbert - Contributor at Covers.com
Ryan Gilbert • Betting Analyst
Jun 4, 2025 • 08:38 ET • 4 min read
Florida Panthers NHL Matthew Tkachuk
Photo By - Imagn Images. Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk in NHL action.

The Florida Panthers are once again facing off against the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final, but this time the Canadian team has home-ice advantage.

Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk has ramped things up as the playoffs have moved along after coming back from a groin injury.

My best Matthew Tkachuk prop bets and NHL picks for Wednesday, June 4 expect that to continue.

Matthew Tkachuk player prop picks

  • Best bet
    Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists
    (+105)

  • SGP pick
    Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists
    Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal
    Panthers moneyline
    (+750)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Matthew Tkachuk best bet

Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists (+105 at BET99)

Matthew Tkachuk looked like himself to start the playoffs with three points in a 6-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1. After that, however, he had just two points in the final four games in that round and nine points in his first 12 postseason games overall. 

Tkachuk’s only multi-point game of the first two rounds was that three-point effort against the Bolts, but he tripled that in the Eastern Conference Final. He had three multi-point games for a total of seven points in five games against the Carolina Hurricanes. That included an assist in four of the five contests.

The gritty winger racked up 57 points (35 assists) in 52 regular-season games this season and has 11 helpers in 17 playoff games. Since putting up just two assists in five games against Tampa, Tkachuk has an assist in eight of 12 games against the Leafs and Canes.

Last year, Tkachuk had a total of 16 assists (22 points) in 24 playoff games, but only two assists in the Stanley Cup Final. He was worn down a bit last year while the opposite has been true this time around with Tkachuk looking better and better as the playoffs move along.

This should be a higher-scoring contest in Game 1 with the Edmonton Oilers susceptible on the penalty kill early on in series so far these playoffs. That should be a boon for Tkachuk, who is a big part of the Florida Panthers’ power play that is hitting at a 23.2% rate this postseason.

Matthew Tkachuk same-game parlay

Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists

Matthew Tkachuk Over 2.5 shots on goal

Panthers moneyline

Tkachuk should be able to find the scoresheet, and he’s been aggressive recently with getting the puck on net.

He had 156 shots in 52 regular-season games (three per contest), and 27 SOG in 17 postseason games. However, as with his scoring, his SOG have increased as well. He had 10 SOG in the final four games against the Hurricanes after putting up nine SOG in his previous eight contests.

This should be a long series, and we’re getting plus odds on the Panthers to take Game 1. Their experience should pay off early, although the Oilers may once again threaten late in the series.

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Ryan Gilbert - Covers
Betting Analyst

Ryan Gilbert brings the passion and pain of being a Philadelphia sports fan. After graduating from Monmouth University with a finance degree, he now uses his statistical background to find inefficiencies in betting markets. With past stops at NHL.com, NBC Sports, and currently at Covers, Ryan's hot picks blend well with the cold ice of a hockey rink.

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