Flames vs Bruins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Boston's Power Play Keeps Cruising

The Calgary Flames roll into Beantown riding a six-game losing skid and overnight bettors love the Boston Bruins, moving the moneyline 45 points in some spots to as short as -200 in NHL odds.

The Flames are struggling to get quality goaltending and could have some issues stopping this elite Boston power play that has been stacking goals since Brad Marchand’s return.

Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Flames vs. Bruins.

Flames vs Bruins best odds

Flames vs Bruins picks and predictions

Since Brad Marchand returned to the lineup at the end of October, the Boston power play is 7-for-17 and he has factored in on six of those goals (4G, 2A). Tonight the Bruins PP faces a Calgary team that has allowed an opposing power-play goal in seven straight games and has been shorthanded four or more times in nine of its last 10 games. 

At 4.60 penalties taken per game, Calgary is one of the more penalized teams in hockey and the Bruins should have four or five cracks at getting an extra-strength marker tonight. 

The top power-play unit also sees roughly 70% of all power-play time for Boston so the big dogs, including Marchand, could see four to five minutes of ice time with the man advantage tonight vs. the poor goaltending of the Flames.

Neither Jacob Markstrom nor Dan Vladar currently sport save percentages above .893 and if Vladar does get the start with Markstrom likely needing a day off, Boston will be facing a familiar goalie in the former Bruin, which gives the advantage to the shooters.

With so much talent on the power play and Marchand getting the majority of the touches on the boards, the best bet tonight is at +126 to get a power play point (David Pastrnak is +100). 

My best bet: Brad Marchand Over 0.5 power-play points (+132)

Flames vs Bruins moneyline analysis

The Bruins opened as long as -160 on the moneyline but overnight bettors hit them hard and have driven the ML to as short as -200 at some books. The movement is warranted.

The Flames are 5-5-2 on the season but are riding a six-game losing streak heading into their third and final game of a three-game road trip that has seen them drop a pair of one-goal games. Calgary has been outscored 23-15 over the losing skid and all but one of those six losses has been by more than one goal. 

Jonathan Huberdeau also missed Tuesday’s game with a foot injury and was seen in a walking boot, making his availability for tonight’s meeting questionable at best. Missing Huberdeau on the wing leaves a big hole in offensive production from the position with this current roster as centers and defensemen account for 60% of the team’s goals on the season.

If the Flames had some decent goaltending, the recent results could look very different as Markstrom comes in with a goals against near 3.00 and a save percentage below .900. He’s allowed three or more goals in five straight games, and fatigue could be an issue as he's played four games over the last eight days. 

If Darryl Sutter goes with backup Vladar — a former Bruin — this line could get shorter for Boston as he's been worse than Markstrom. The Calgary backup has played three games and is yet to post a save percentage of .900 or better. He currently has the fourth-worst goals saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60).

The special teams edge goes to the home side as well tonight as the Bruins have the league’s best penalty kill and the No.7 power play while the Flames rank outside the Top 10 in both.

Boston just has zero flaws right now. It's the only team averaging over 4.00 goals per game and its 2.38 goals against ranks third in hockey.

Marchand is back and looks recovered from hip surgery. David Krejci is also back from injury, and defenseman Charlie McAvoy could make his season debut tonight. This team is anything but top-heavy and has three solid lines and a blue line that gets infinitely better with the potential addition of McAvoy who is blossoming into a point-per-game defenseman.

Add in Linus Ullmark and his 2.05 GAA, .932 SV%, and a team defense that allows very few high-danger shots, and there's a reason the Bruins are -190ish home favorites vs. the struggling Flames. Boston is also 9-0 SU when scoring first as it doesn’t let teams back into games. 

There are indicators that the Flames are a better team and losing all these one-goal games is slightly unlucky, but against this near-perfect Boston team — and on the last game of a road trip — is not a place I want to bet on Calgary. Boston to win in regulation at -125 is tempting but I think there is better value to be found in other markets, especially after bettors moved the Boston ML significantly already. 

Flames vs Bruins Over/Under analysis

This game opened at 6 and hasn’t been much movement for good reason. Combined, both teams are 12-11-2 O/U on the season but the shot quality allowed is a big reason for the lower total.

Both clubs sit in the Top 5 in high-danger chances allowed with the Flames being the best at just 15 high-gander shots given up through 12 games. Defensively, they allow very few shots in general (28.6), sit in the Top 5 in Corsi and Fenwick, but have struggled to get good goaltending with a team save percentage of .887.

A bet on the Over here is more or less a bet on poor goaltending, which isn’t a terrible idea, but Markstrom and Vladar have been playing below expected and should return to better form sooner rather than later.

Boston is also a team that doesn’t give up much. Opponents are averaging just 2.38 goals per game while the penalty kill has killed off 42 of 45 penalties on the season. They also sit in the middle of the league in goal against above expected (GAAx) meaning they’re playing to expected results. 

The one thing that worries me is the Boston power play vs. the Calgary PK. The Flames have allowed a power-play goal in seven straight games and are a very penalized team at 4.60 penalties taken/60. Since Marchand has returned the Boston PP is 7-for-17 with the man advantage. 

The play in net by the Flames and the Boston power play are two reasons why I’m likely off this total and with Boston allowing just seven third-period goals across 13 games this season, late scoring could be tough to come by.

Flames vs Bruins betting trend to know

The Flames are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs Bruins.

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