The Colorado Avalanche host the Calgary Flames in the late window of Saturday’s NHL odds slate.
These teams have played in plenty of low-scoring games over the past few seasons, with five or fewer total goals scored in four of the past five meetings.
Will we see another low-scoring affair, or can the goals pick up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks for Flames vs. Avalanche on November 25.
Flames vs Avalanche odds
Flames vs Avalanche predictions
The Colorado Avalanche are coming off a 3-2 win over the Minnesota Wild on Friday, and we should expect another low-scoring game on Saturday.
To start, the Avs’ blue line remains one of the league’s best. At 5-on-5, they rank in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). At even-strength, Colorado also finds itself in the top half of the league in goals allowed and shots on goal allowed per game.
The main reason for this inflated total is both teams enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back, which means we are going to see some tired legs from both sides.
As for the goaltenders, Daniel Vladar and Ivan Prosvetov both carry a SV% south of .900 this season, but those both come in small sample sizes. Through two career starts against the Avalanche, Vladar boasts a .925 SV% and 2.53 GAA.
While Prosvetov has never faced the Calgary Flames prior to Saturday, his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is looming. If he qualified, Prosvetov would rank ninth among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
This expected positive regression could come to fruition against an offensively weak Flames lineup. At 5-on-5, Calgary ranks 20th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
Meanwhile, the blue line has been much stronger for the Flames this season, which is why they rank eighth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. In fact, Calgary comes into Saturday ranking even higher than Colorado in that category.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (+100 at SIA)
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Flames vs Avalanche same-game parlay
Under 6.5
Avalanche moneyline
Colorado nears the two-dollar mark, which makes sense considering that it is the better team in every facet of the game. The one “edge” that could be given to Calgary is defense as its underlying metrics are stronger than the Avs’ at even-strength.
With that said, I still would take their blue line over the Flames’ every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Meanwhile, there is no question that Colorado’s offense is substantially stronger.
This game could come down to goaltending, but given his far-superior underlying metrics, I trust Prosvetov more than Vladar.
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Flames vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Avalanche opened as a –175 favorite and remain at that number at the time of writing. I think the market is ultimately going to push this line closer to –200, as winning on back-to-back nights on the road against both Dallas and Colorado is going to be an incredibly difficult task for this below-average Flames team.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and also remains at that number. I don’t think this total will move off that number, but the juice has been shaded to the Over since the line opened.
In a Vladar/Prosvetov matchup, it is more likely the betting public will push this total to 7.
Flames vs Avalanche betting trend to know
There have been five or fewer total goals scored in four of the past five meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Avalanche.
Flames vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, November 25, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, TVA Sports |
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